Two interesting trends emerging from the new voter list, which is in its final stages, is the climbing numbers in Punjab and that 35% of those on the list will be under 30.
A study carried out by the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) on the computerised electoral rolls that will be ready for printing by the end of this month reveal these interesting statistics.
The list for the next general elections will contain more than 85 million names, and over 35% of the voters will be between 18 and 30. This is a considerable figure and likely to influence voting patterns.
Data compiled so far contains over 84.2 million names with the figure likely to cross 85 million by the time the general election’s schedule is announced.
The last list, compiled in 2007-08, had around 81 million voters.
The new electoral rolls which NADRA and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) are preparing will be based on computerized national identity cards (CNICs). Each voter’s CNIC number will be their unique identification number and they will be asked to show original CNICs at the time of voting.
Though not completely foolproof, authorities claim using CNICs as the sole document for registering votes minimises the margin of error.
The 2007-08 voters list, on the basis of which the last general elections and all subsequent by-elections were held, had been found to be full of errors. 37.1% of the registered voters were fake or multiple entries, raising serious concerns about the authenticity of the entire electoral process.
These dubious entries have been removed from the new lists.
Provinces
The number of registered voters has not increased in all provinces.
Balochistan seems to be losing faith in the electoral process. The number of voters has declined from 4.3 million to 3 million. Surprisingly, Sindh which previously had 19.5 million registered voters also witnessed a slight decrease to 19 million.
Punjab, on the other hand, is responsible for nearly all the net increase. The province makes up for half of the country’s population and has 148 general seats in the National Assembly. It has a total of 48 million registered voters against the 44 million earlier.
Punjab plays a crucial role in the formation of the federal government. With the addition of 35 reserved seats it has a total of 183 seats, which is more than the combined number of seats of the other three provinces in the 342-member National Assembly.
A slight increase was witnessed in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the capital city of Islamabad. The number of voters in K-P increased from 10.8 million to 12 million, while in FATA from 1.2 million to 1.6 million.
Islamabad, which has two National Assembly seats, now has 0.6 million voters against the 0.5 million earlier.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 9th, 2012.
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The new electoral database and Faukhurdin Ebrahim is the CEC. "Tsunami" is emminent.
@geeko: If knowen laws or equations are not giving desired result then creat new equations to justfy your action, but ground realities does not chage by that and in this case will be make Ppp win let them make new governament for next 5 years and then keep blaming the others, in capable people doesn't know their ability rather than they misguide others, in this case a lot of fresh nice people are misguided, and I feel sorry for that. What our friend JI could not do Along, they want others do the same, has out come not clear from 65 years. When we will realize that it is our actions which are wrong and the result are correct. Love you all, just thinks positively on my points and thanks.
Imran Khan already said, when peoples talk of "traditional vote banks", that what will change the whole equation in the 2013 general elections will be the mass-introduction of the youth (in millions) who, in their majority, are pro PTI and far from the so-called "traditional" electoral behaviours of their parents.
@Abdul Qayyum Bhatti: This election is not the same as the previous - there's a party with a genuine ideology now.
@Abdul Qayyum Bhatti: Do you think that any body fool himself, no, but their thinking keep reminding the others to judge them by their talk or actions, what makes me worried is a lot of nice people are misguided and going to be disappointed and may lose the fath on election and politics, which will be great lose for Pakistan. It is them to get awak and put their efforts on right direction which is not let Ppp win and help right party to come in power. PTI can not win to make governament, they know but IK keep giving them wrong hope, otherwise one can lying to them.
Its might be cheerful for PTI lovers, but do all these 35% young voters will definitely vote for PTI? For sure, not all will do so. From the past experiences, it has been observed that "Upper Class" and "Young people" (thought to be PTI's voting assets) have been reluctant to bother to go to polling stations to cast their votes. Will these young voters will bother to go to polling both to cast their votes in the next elections?
The point is day dreem should end, the new comer is only spoiler, not more than that or helper to next Ppp governament. They can not win and will drag the best party which is PML N. if you.dont get awak now you will face Ppp next 5 years also, pakistanis will not forgive you.
A real concern for PMLN and PPP, good news for PTI.
More young voters in electoral base is good for PTI. As far as the issue of tieing CNIC to a vote is concerned, I think it is a great step. However, steps should be taken to prevent its abuse as well. For example, I have heard from locals in Karachi that MQM has a habit of collecting National Id cards by force during elections and voting on their behalf (of course in its own favor).