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Pakistan: failing, failing, failing...

Published: June 23, 2010

The writer is a director with Hill Road Media in Bombay (aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk)

Foreign Policy magazine has published its list of failed states. Pakistan has squeezed into the ‘Top 10’ again. Does it deserve to be there? Let’s have a look. The magazine has listed the “unique set of troubles” the world’s most failed states face. Called the 12 degrees of failure (editors love lists with numbers) these are: demographic pressures, refugees, illegitimate governments, brain drain, failure of public services, inequality, group grievances, human rights, economic decline, lack of security, factionalised elites and intervention by external actors.

Pakistan does not figure in the states named as prime examples of these failures (for instance a quarter of all Somalis are refugees and the economies of North Korea and Zimbabwe have collapsed). But it is not inaccurate to say that Pakistan, like most third world developing nations including India, does poorly on these counts. So Pakistan’s problems are not particular to it to an extent. Pakistan doesn’t figure in the watch list of “Four countries in big trouble” either.

The magazine has published data showing what life is like for the populations of the 10 most failed states. Pakistan’s per capita GDP is shown as $2,590 (presumably calculated by purchasing power). This is 10 times more than the most failed state, Somalia.

Pakistan’s child mortality under age five per 1,000 is 89. This means nine children out of 100 don’t live past the age of 5. In Chad this number is 21 children. Pakistan’s fertility rate (births per woman) is four. In Congo, ranked 5th on the list, it is six. Afghan women produce seven.

Mobile phone subscriptions in Central African Republic, at number eight on the list, are four per 100 people. In Pakistan they are 53, half the population, and the number of internet users per 100 are 11. Iraq has only one.

The length of time the average Pakistani leader spends in office is two years. But such longevity isn’t necessarily a good thing as Sudan’s average of 21 years and Zimbabwe’s 30 years show.

As these numbers show, Pakistan is quite different from the other failed states. Then why does it regularly feature on the list?

Why is China, poor and dictatorial, though growing quickly, ranked at a safe 57? Why is India rated even better at 87?

The reason is that these nations are seen by the west as improving over time. The problems of poverty and governance remain, but it is believed that they are being resolved through a secular process.

Pakistan is seen, rightly or wrongly, as a state that is moving into greater trouble because of religious intolerance. Large parts of India’s tribal areas are also not under state control, but these do not produce as much violence and extremism as the tribal areas of Pakistan. And so the same problem, lack of state presence, is seen very negatively in Pakistan’s case.

The single most significant reason for Pakistan’s inclusion on the list is the slow collapse of the state. The government, Foreign Policy magazine and other experts are convinced, is losing control over its population.

Till this perception is changed, Pakistan will continue to make this list. And it’s not just a plaything of the magazine editors. Businesses will be prejudiced against the ‘failed’ states. Investment will be hard to attract, and capital will continue to flee. Pakistan’s government needs to respond.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 23rd, 2010.

Reader Comments (40)

  • Jun 23, 2010 - 1:43AM

    Very well written! Perception trumps reality any day of the year.Recommend

  • Hamood
    Jun 23, 2010 - 2:32AM

    These lists are not very scientific and should not be taken seriously. I doubt that the authors of such reports ever get out of their cushy offices and visit any of the countries classified as “endangered”. Ask any foreigner who’s been to Pakistan and countries like Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq etc and he will laugh at your face at that comparison. India though having more insurgencies than Pakistan is ranked 87th? Even higher that China? You got to be kidding me. The media should utilize its time highlighting real issues rather than discuss these stupid lists.Recommend

  • Hamood
    Jun 23, 2010 - 2:35AM

    I also remember a couple of years ago a similar list came out that singled out Pakistan and Mexico being “on the verge of sudden and catastrophic collapse within six months”. Well those six months are long gone and where is that collapse? On the contrary, things are generally on the upswing.Recommend

  • Faryal Tahir
    Jun 23, 2010 - 4:44AM

    We are making of fool of ourselves pretending we don’t care of anyone’s perception about us. Number one the perception is incomplete, Number two editors are short sighted, Number three editors are short of memory too, Number four the list is made with the ink of prejudice and Pakistan’s very own ‘list of failed lists’ goes on.

    It’s not only Pakistan’s government that needs to respond but every individual in his own mind-set. If the perception irritate us it should lead us to understand ourselves better.Recommend

  • Pakistan Zindabad
    Jun 23, 2010 - 5:19AM

    another Indian with Pak bashing :) what else can you expect …

    failing state or not we are here to stay … to rule the world! Call me crazy but as Iqbal said:

    SABAK PHIR PARH SADAKAT KA, ADALAT KA, SUJHAAT KA …
    LIYA JAYE KA TUJH SE KAAM DUNIA KI IMAMT KA …

    Pakistan Zindabad! and Indians mind your own business.Recommend

  • cmsarwar
    Jun 23, 2010 - 8:47AM

    @Hamood.Sir,Why don’t you thank God that the anticipated collapse has been delayed? But I can assure him that his wait will not be too long.East Pakistan did take a few decades.But due to the geography of West Pakistan( now beloved Pakistan) it may take a little bit longer.But we are doing our very best to speed it up.I visited East Pakistan in 1969 and somebody in Chitagong warned me that the East is breaking away from the West.Back in West Pakistn Altaf Hussain Qureshi of Urdu Digest was serialising his travelogue about East Pakistan under the caption :Muhabbat ka zamzam beh raha hai.:(Zamzama of love is flowing).
    Hamood talks of real issues and says these lists are stupid.Well,of course,these lists are preapared on the basis of real issues.Let,s accept the facts and stop the satisfaction of claiming to be better than the worst.Recommend

  • Zohair
    Jun 23, 2010 - 9:59AM

    What else can we expect from an IndianRecommend

  • Jun 23, 2010 - 10:01AM

    No Pakistan is not a failed state – but it will eventually fail though for a combination of reasons other than political. Firstly there is the demographic. The population bomb has already gone off and we now live with the reality that there are going to be twice as many people in Pakistan in under thirty years than there are now. Then there is Himalayan glacier melt – the glaciers that serve the Indus river system are retreating fast and getting faster. Within fifty years the IRS will be a trickle. Allied to this is increased desertification and rising salinity that is taking agricultural land out of production. Food insecurity will reach ever upwards and, long term, famine is going to be a feature. There is little sign that governments are going to take the steps that might mitigate some of the worst effects of all of these. Dams are not going to be built, population control is a distant dream and developments in arid agriculture too slow to make a significant difference. The drift towards extremism will stifle development. There is unlikely to be a catastrophic collapse, more a slow deterioration that will hit some parts of the population harder than others. There will be civil unrest and some cities may destabilise under the sheer weight of population as it competes for infrastructure resources, but this is not a country that is ever likely to see a full-blown popular mass uprising. The innate sense of fatalism and the cultural desire for conformity make revolution most unlikely. The system of elected feudalism and the rule of the establishment will persist for the rest of the life of the nation, and any development towards true democracy will be checked by a system that invests heavily in the status-quo. But as we are, no we are not failed. It’s coming, and there is no stopping it now – we missed too many chances – and we have perhaps fifty years before a final collapse. Which is far enough away for nobody to worry about, isn’t it?Recommend

  • Zohair
    Jun 23, 2010 - 10:06AM

    I think despite all of the foreign noise, Pakistan is much better then India at micro level.Recommend

  • Hamood
    Jun 23, 2010 - 10:17AM

    @sarwar, you are wrong. You seem to be quite experienced and yet missing the main point here that things are on the upswing. You also missed the fact that Bengalis had a different culture and language than West Pakistanis and that there was thousands of miles of India in between. Pakistan only started appearing on these lists in the last few years and its mostly because of this so-called war on terror across the border. Foreign forces presence in neighboring Afghanistan started all this mess. With US looking for ways to escape from this region, things will improve. This collapse will never happen because there is no India between the two Pakistans this time.Recommend

  • ahmed
    Jun 23, 2010 - 11:44AM

    UNDP:
    Poverty rate in Pakistan = 23%
    Poverty rate in India = 43%

    Roughly half of the population in india barely gets food to eat and yet its ranked at 87. Failure means different things to different people, but i am sure that the idea of failure in the magazine editor’s mind is extremely absurd.Recommend

  • Tayyab
    Jun 23, 2010 - 12:05PM

    another hateful and biased report. Remember Mr.writer a failing Pakistan is more dangerous for Indians .. lolRecommend

  • Jun 23, 2010 - 12:20PM

    Aakar Patel has tried to balance the Foreign Policy magazine’s negative listing of Pakistan. So let us not treat his piece as Indian ranting. Far from it, because he writes about Pakistan with a positive attitude. Chris Cork has the knack of writing about serious things in a light manner, except today. But let us re-read what Aakar and Chris have written because this is serious stuff. I do not believe that Pakistan’s failure is irreversible. It’s us who will fail it or save it! The elites will have a greater responsibility. They must reduce their levels of consumption and try to share the planet’s limited resources in a more equitable way. Since the existing education system is based on discrimination and is not geared to inculcate decent values, we have to start ourselves by bringing up the coming generation in a different way. The advice to our children should not be “get ahead” but “get in line”.Recommend

  • Muriam Butt
    Jun 23, 2010 - 12:35PM

    Normally this type of lists prepared in a very specific scenario….. n not show any reality but a best thing to take under pressure that nation….
    despite all mentioned problems Pakistanis are very hopeful about their future As Iqbal said…….
    Nahi Hey Mayoos Iqbal Apni kast e virah sey
    Zara Nam Ho tu Yeh Matti bari Zarkheez hey Saqi.Recommend

  • Faryal Tahir
    Jun 23, 2010 - 12:58PM

    This youth disappoints me. Now make it an India Pakistan war !!
    Stereotypes !!Recommend

  • Farhan
    Jun 23, 2010 - 1:40PM

    To those making this an India-Pakistan thing:

    First of all we are not talking about India here, and secondly this is a very well written article with some proper analysis behind it (which is more than what we can say for 80% of our own “armchair intellectuals”).

    Btw if you guys actually bothered to read through it and understood the content, you would realize that this is actually a very positive take on the issue.

    Thank you for your contributions Mr.Patel.Recommend

  • Ali Khan
    Jun 23, 2010 - 2:07PM

    What is more revealing than the article itself is our sad obsession with India. We continue a short sighted view of obvious problems we have and refuse to admit that we need to address these issues urgently.Recommend

  • Talha
    Jun 23, 2010 - 2:46PM

    I would also like to appreciate Mr.Patel’s effort, since he has rightly pointed out that we have few but big problems that we face currently. Food and energy crisis are just the symptoms of the problems pointed out by Mr.Patel. We have to realise that our country is currently in a state of war and even worse our government is at a state of war with its own people. Until we get on an even ground with our tribal lords we cannot and should not expect to get out of the top ten list.Recommend

  • Ammar
    Jun 23, 2010 - 2:56PM

    if we all realize this fact, will somebody stop or actually put ban on media who is always in search of giving negative image of Pakistan to the World?Recommend

  • Ghafar Ali
    Jun 23, 2010 - 3:19PM

    I disagree with Mr Pakistan Zindabad

    I wish we could follow Iqbal’s ” SABAK PHIR PARH SADAKAT KA, ADALAT KA, SUJHAAT KA …”

    In reality we are following lies in shape of promises of the government and witnessing unprecedented corruption in every deal, department from top to bottominstead of SADAKAT,Recommend

  • Ghafar Ali
    Jun 23, 2010 - 3:27PM

    We are mockery of the independent judiciary instead of establishing ADALAT. Our law minister generiousity is a clear example of what kind of justice system or ADALAT we want. And of course our Shujaat is not a secret when we are sitting infront of the representatives of our Lord America. Our Submissiveness negates our claims of our Shujaat.Recommend

  • Abdullah
    Jun 23, 2010 - 3:40PM

    Very good article Mr. Patel. An eye Opener for us. We should analyze ourselves, and try to correct instead of closing our eyes.Recommend

  • Jun 23, 2010 - 3:54PM

    yeah we are a wonderful state; Check the LHC new decision now…How can one live without msn, yahoo, hotmail, google? Mostly people have accounts there..blogs as well….Its a totally failed state,, not even providing the basic rights to its citizens..(Security, safety, Food, freedom of speech) I dont know what is it giving us? Look at the new budget… So many. 8000 plus cases of women assault in 2009, and people committing suicide because of poverty?Recommend

  • Jun 23, 2010 - 5:26PM

    Comparison of Pakistan with Iraq, Chad, Somalia automatically turns us into a failed state. Regardless of how much we deny but we’re indeed traveling towards failure.Recommend

  • Sharjeel Jawaid
    Jun 23, 2010 - 8:07PM

    Let us not compare ourselves with India or for that matter Somalia.

    Things at home have been deteriorating for quite a while. Indicators such as literacy, access to health care, poverty, employment opportunities, equality of all citizens before law, tax evasion, corruption, all point in the negative direction.

    Thanks to souls like Edhi & Dr Abid Rizvi that we are not a failed state yet, however with the overall state of affairs prevailing we may join the the rank of failed states quite soon.Recommend

  • Salman M
    Jun 23, 2010 - 9:52PM

    @Chris, I absolutely agree with what you have said about the missed opportunities and the catastrophic direction we will continue to head in. I’m not sure why would you give Pakistan 50 years though. In my estimation, Pakistan may face collapse within the next 15-20 years. How would it continue to survive for another 50 years?Recommend

  • Hasan Sheikh
    Jun 23, 2010 - 10:15PM

    Hats off to you Aaker Patel. Not only have you shown how to compare, but also what to compare with nine other most failed states. This is, like most other of your writings a well written and balanced article. And Chris Cork, you took quite a few decades to realise what you wrote. It took me three months.Recommend

  • anum
    Jun 24, 2010 - 12:33AM

    aakar patel has in no way demeaned pakistan, infact he has presented the reality as it is, remaining neutral. please stop making everything a pakistan india war, we have to be more concerned about the state of our own future, than worry about what the indians are saying.Recommend

  • cmsarwar
    Jun 24, 2010 - 5:20AM

    I really feel sad that our patriotic Pakistani readers do not sense the concern and empathy which Askar has expressed for Pakistan and the problems we are faced with.Again comparing Pakistan with India is outdated now.India,on a sound footing,is headed towards the right direction.And where do we stand? We got the BOMB which we cannot use.And everything is being eroded by a tyrannical system which is self-centered and is not focussed on the common man and broader national goalsRecommend

  • Jun 24, 2010 - 7:06AM

    @ Zohair and Pakistan Zindabad—did you even read the article? Far from an Indian bashing Pakistan, the writer has tried to distinguish Pakistan from the other countries that made this infamous top 10 list. I don’t think your attempts to demean the writer on account of his nationality undermine his piece in this case or bolster your own patriotism.

    @ Chris Cork—I am really struck by your comments. Your regular column gives me so much cause for optimism and I often quote what you write in my conversations with others as reasons for why Pakistan is not failing. But your comments here seem at odds with what you write in your columns. And although I have to take whatever you say with a lot of seriousness, I think your comments here are a bit harsh.Recommend

  • samina
    Jun 24, 2010 - 12:20PM

    an intelligent foe is better than an ill-literate friend.Recommend

  • Manahil
    Jun 24, 2010 - 12:27PM

    It is realy time for us to grow up from the indians-naturally-hate-pakistan crap and vice versa. This is not Pakistan Bashing, this is the truth.
    Have we been able to control the extremist killing machines, obviously its not an overnight job, but the state finds the most pivotal duty to name them first, whether they belong to punjab or KP, which btw shows how divided in provinces we have become.
    Our budget for education and health care is very small, that is in other words, investing in the people the future and the present is not important then how can anyone expect the state not to be termed as failed, because the areas they need to spend, focus are put aside.
    No denying Pakistan is faced with problems. But the real problem is there is less of a will of our politicians and leaders to make a way out. We are not on the same page. Dont have clear objectives.
    Living in denial is not being optimistic.
    I am a Pakistani. and the country is dear to me and that is the reason why I refuse to shut my eyes.Recommend

  • maryum
    Jun 24, 2010 - 3:05PM

    after reading all this stuff and besides all the issues we are facing since last many years, i still think we can be out of this list. yes we have very critical situation right now but we need big change (from Govt to Courts) all foolish and criminals are in our Govt and all stupid lawyers, justices have no work to do (do you remember lawyers help criminal by beating police and in results he… or banning on search engines)..

    As a Pakistani its really painful to read this stuff about our loving country..but i believe the Situation will be better soonRecommend

  • A Pakistani
    Jun 24, 2010 - 4:10PM

    Well Aakar, I am impressed by your analysis. It was very balanced and factual. Well written.

    I hope what you have analysed, is seen by every Pakistani. Yes we are not a fail state. But if we keep on making these mistakes, this list might be true after sometime.

    Allah bless Pakistan!Recommend

  • Ali Haider
    Jun 25, 2010 - 12:03AM

    Some people just don’t get it and display the typical emotional behavior. The author is not bashing Pakistan. He is trying to tell what he thinks can be done to make our image better. We have problems and we need to fix them. I like the article. Very calculated!!Recommend

  • Stranger
    Jun 25, 2010 - 9:20AM

    Agreed with the author. Pakistan need to grow and the most important thing to do is decrease govt. expenditure and to encourage private sector to contribute to the economy since govt. has less resources.
    Some other countries have also twine deficit like Pakistan but it is due to acquiring recourse like investment in mines. We are not increasing our resources both in quality and quantity.Recommend

  • Ali Ghauri
    Jun 25, 2010 - 12:12PM

    analyst usually base there results on some facts and figures and past trends in Pakistan case, things are not going the right way and cannot be changed by a wishful thinking Whatever the sentiments of the pakistani ppl be!!! your GDP growth rate is bearly above 2% for the last so many years, you have little or no industrial development, power crisis as long as i can remember and a wonderful pool of so called leaders/politician. these are fact!!! There can be some baising in the international reports but cannot be totally wrong. the least what we can do is to take lesson from it and try to improve.Recommend

  • Sadia Hussain
    Jun 25, 2010 - 6:01PM

    Pakistan is steadily driving towards anarchy and unless we take measures to de-radicalize the society this catastrophe is unavoidable. Religious extremism is rampant and it is one the prime reasons behind readily available militants who have an obscure understanding of IslamRecommend

  • rehman
    Jun 26, 2010 - 12:55AM

    i dont really consider these issues seriously..we r in a middle of a war because of america.whenver thr is a war thr r refugees issues related to losing state control..when america will go from afghanistan war will end and we will come back to a safer level…so stop considering this stupid indexRecommend

  • cmsarwar
    Jun 26, 2010 - 4:05AM

    @rehman.As if America is on a picnic in Afghanistan.Both America and Soviet Union left Afghanistan after the great and America-sponsered Jihad,so ably executed by the Mujahid-e-Awwal,Ziaul Haq.What did Pakistan get out of it other than a prosperous Ijazul Haq and the curse of brutal fundamentalism which is the problem the whole world is now facing.What is Alqaida and the Taliban of all hues and shades? This is the legacy of Afghan Jihad and Mujahid-e-Islam Ziaul ul Haq and his coterie of generals.(How brilliant does Akhtar Abu Rehman shine.).When the current Afghan war ends,who knows when,you cannot imagine what will be the after- effects and how much will Pakistan suffer more during the process.And by Pakistan I mean the common man and this nation and not the generals and their newly recruited allies,the Zardaris and Gilanis and Sharifs so ably represented by Babar Awan,Fauzia Wahab ,Ch.Nisar(the great actor) and above all His Holiness,the one and only Fazul ur Rehman.Where is the food,housing,health,education.clothing and the security for common man and any plans for these needs when the war goes on and when it ends.Recommend

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