Protests and political uncertainties

Protests by PIA and those against the Orange Line show there is genuine resentment against govt's governance agenda

Pakistan has witnessed several medium and small-scale street protests and stoppage of work over the last month or so. Most of these protests relate to socioeconomic issues faced by ordinary people. The protest by PIA employees is the latest and the most serious reaction to the federal government’s policy of de-nationalisation. The city of Lahore has been hit by protest marches against the Orange Line city train service being introduced by the Punjab government as its coveted project to improve public transport. Most opposition parties have supported the protests by PIA employees and criticised the use of force against them by the federal government. Some labour groups have also sympathised with PIA employees. However, none of them have actually joined the protest. If different aggrieved groups engage in protest individually, they can create administrative problems for the federal government, but isolated protests that are happening right now cannot become a nationwide challenge for the authorities.

The PIA protest has created a somewhat complex situation because its network exists in several cities and the death of two workers in the course of the protest has led to internal consolidation among the protesters. However, no major political consequence is expected unless most of the aggrieved groups and political parties join hands. This does not appear to be happening in the near future. However, these disparate protests will, from time to time, make it difficult for the federal government to devote full attention to other key challenges, such as countering terrorism, improving the economy and checking the growing alienation of ordinary people. The federal government has adopted the public posture of not talking to PIA protesters unless they return to their duties. The protesters have been equally stubborn in their demands. Some efforts are quietly underway to break the deadlock. This stalemate is typical of Pakistani politics. The competing interests often find it difficult to agree upon enduring solutions to contentious issues.

Pakistan’s three major players of the political power game are facing a widening gap between their desired agendas and what they actually do in a real-time situation. Consequently, all key players express dissatisfaction in their own way when it comes to governance issues and political management, but none of them have a clear vision for overcoming the gap between what is viewed as desirable and what is actually achieved. The three major players in Pakistan’s power game are the PML-N, the military top-brass and the major opposition political parties. The PML-N is now focused on the 2018 elections with the objective of winning it to ensure the continuity of its rule at least at the federal level and in Punjab. Its plan is to extend its rule by securing an overwhelming victory in Punjab, which has the largest number of seats in the National Assembly. If the PML-N wins 75-80 per cent of the seats in Punjab, support can be obtained from smaller groups and independents from other provinces to set up a new government.

This means that the PML-N would keep a firm control on Punjab and will be able to resist any attempt by the PTI or the PPP to make inroads in the province. This also means that the PML-N cannot afford to allow the kind of operation that has been conducted in Sindh to counter terrorism and extremism to take place in Punjab because this would hurt its electoral base and compromise its control of the province. As the policy of keeping all out of Punjab is becoming unmanageable, the PML-N is not happy with the current situation and equates its continued rule with protecting democracy in Pakistan.

The military top brass is in favour of preserving civilian and constitutional order and, at the same time, obtain active civilian cooperation for countering terrorism at the provincial level, especially in Punjab. These two agendas may not go together. The political governments work with the military to counter terrorism. However, these governments also want to protect their political and electoral assets as well as their capacity to use state resources and patronage for cultivating political support. This balancing of imperatives of working with the military in countering terrorism and preserving political and electoral assets is going to be extremely difficult in Punjab, which holds the key to the PML-N’s staying in power at the federal level. Any impression of the loosening of its hold here can cause serious damage to the party’s ambitions for the next general elections.

The third major player, the opposition, especially the PTI, wants to pull down the governments of the Sharif brothers. The PPP saved the PML-N from the dharna onslaught in 2014, but it has pulled back from that policy without charting a new course of action. The opposition parties are facing difficulties in building pressure on the PML-N because of their mutual jealousies and disharmony. The PTI and the PPP detest each other. The MQM’s agenda is shaped by its interests in urban Sindh, especially in Karachi. The smaller opposition parties have their exclusive agendas and seek individual arrangements with the PML-N government. The opposition, therefore, finds it quite frustrating when it cannot exert sustained pressure on the government.

The current wave of protest and agitation has put to test the PML-N’s skills to cool down the growing resentment against its policies. The PML-N leadership is not yet willing to accept that its elitist and self-serving policies have caused alienation and resentment at the level of the ordinary citizen. The only reason that the current situation has not blown out of control is that the opposition is divided and the military is working within the existing arrangement in order to counter terrorism and extremism. The PML-N can hold on to power in such a stalemate. It can improve its prospects by recognising that public anger against its policies is genuine. It must give up its personalised and clannish rule for improved governance, pay greater attention to fairness and transparency in the management of the economy, avoid heavy partisanship in using state resources and patronage and relieve economic pressure on the common man. Above all, it needs to adopt a more up-front approach in dealing with terrorism and extremism through active cooperation with political and societal groups and the military. If the present policies persist, the PML-N will move from crisis to crisis and political uncertainty will continue to haunt the civilian order.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 8^th,  2016.

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