My article ‘Reasons for an operation in south Punjab’ (June 11) came under harsh criticism by some people in Fata and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. These people do not wish to come out openly in the media because they are afraid they would be killed. Through this article I will communicate their criticism of the Pakistanis so as to inform them about this perspective on militancy and terrorism.

I have been accused of being naive, just like the leaders of the Aman Tehrik, an anti-Talibanisation peace movement in Fata and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. I have been asked why I want to see south Punjab bombed and also who was I addressing in my article when I was advocating for an operation in south Punjab. I was asked whether I was asking the military for an operation against the Punjabi Taliban or the politicians, because, in their view, the chances of the latter ordering one were higher — and for “obvious reasons”.

This question makes sense because politicians cannot even bat an eyelid without the permission of the army. In fact the politicians of all the provinces are in a ‘forced alliance’ with the army. Either the ruling class has to be in union with the masses or with the establishment. And that is where lies the essence of the problem — that the civilian leadership and the people need to show some unity because that is the only way that terrorism and the militancy increasingly gaining ground in Pakistan can be effectively fought.

The issue is that what will happen in Afghanistan once the Americans leave and here the view of many is that once this happens, the establishment in Pakistan will use the militants for its own purpose — just like it did in the past when the Taliban regime in Kabul was set up with Pakistan’s explicit backing. In that context, for an operation to be launched in south Punjab seems an unlikely possibility for now, because that would mean closing the door on using the same elements in Afghanistan for consolidation once the Americans leave.

The fear is that once this happens, secular parties such as Awami National Party (ANP), which have taken a defiant stand against the Taliban, may well end up paying heavily — given that the Taliban will once again be in the establishment’s good books. Of course, the ANP could be better off if its rule in the province had provided some semblance of good governance to the province’s inhabitants — but that has clearly not been the case. So once the Americans leave, and the Taliban return in full force, the ANP and its leadership will be pretty much left on its own – or at least that is one prevailing view.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 29^th, 2010.

Recently a Pashto radio channel reported Syeda Abida Hussain, a former MNA now allied with the PPP, as saying that the US is determined to eliminate terrorists and American drones might attack them in south Punjab. She said that all terrorists have to be eliminated, if foreign aggression on mainland Pakistan is to be avoided.

Abida Hussain’s view is a good sign in the context of the denial syndrome afflicting many Pakistanis, including politicians. A case in point is the issue of the drone strikes on Fata. All political parties, especially those having links in Fata, such as the ANP, PPP and the JUI-F, know that the tribal people are not as fearful of drone strikes as is made out in the media since they target the terrorists, and are usually quite precise in the damage and destruction that they cause. And yet in their public statements, Pakistani politicians misinform about this issue. One reason might be the fear of a military establishment. The ANP is mostly silent on this issue, and the PPP often misleads the people. Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Yousaf Raza Gilani have been saying that the drone strikes whip up severe anti-American hysteria because of their large-scale civilian casualties. This view is far from being true.

There is, however, one instance when both the ANP and the PPP communicated the tribal view on the drone attacks through the Peshawar Declaration, a joint statement of the provincial leadership of anti-terrorism political parties, including the two political parties and civil society representatives from Fata and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, signed in December 2009. The Punjab-based PML-N has gone too far in its appeasement of its religious vote-bank. The party opposes drone attacks on Fata and rejects any notions of an operation against the Punjabi Taliban. It seems like the Punjab government is patronising terrorists just like the previous MMA government did in the case of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

The MMA government was a product of rigged elections engineered by General Pervez Musharraf. However, the PML-N came to power through a popular mandate. A popular government supporting or soft peddling on terrorists could be much more disastrous and my apprehension is that people of the Punjab could greatly suffer if the party does not give up its pro-Taliban stance.

With or without the US, drone attacks in Pakistan have to eliminate the jihadis. Operations have to be conducted in Muridke and south Punjab. The so-called ‘Kashmiri Mujahideen’ and pro-Pakistan Taliban have to be taken by the horns, as should all other terrorists. And it needs to be understood that the jihadis can never be our strategic assets. The quicker this happens, the better for us.

My hope is that Abida Hussain’s view would not be a one-off and other politicians from the Punjab would challenge the pro-militant public discourse. I would also expect the ANP and PPP to inform Pakistanis about the positive views of the tribesmen on the drone attacks.

Published in the Express Tribune, June 11^th, 2010.

In an unusual move in May 2010 the Commandant of the Kurram Scouts convened a tribal jirga of both Sunni and Shia tribal leaders to repatriate displaced families to their native areas and to implement the Murree agreement signed in November 2008. The agreement asks for armed tribal groups to vacate their positions, the repatriation of IDPs and supply of food and medicine to the affected areas. The government has failed to implement the agreement and people of Kurram continue to suffer in violence.

Now, the commandant has initiated a move to make peace in the area. But tribal leaders have serious reservations over the move. The commandant never consulted the political agent of the agency and he has no legal authority to convene such a jirga although he insists he has been ‘given’ authority to do so. He invited controversial non-locals to the jirga, such as Javed Ibrahim Paracha who is not from Fata but from Kohat and is known to harbour sectarian views and is considered close to militants. The Shia tribesmen hold him responsible for the sufferings in the area and accuse him of sheltering al Qaeda elements. The Sunnis consider him an intruder who poisons their relationship with their Shia compatriots for his
vested interests.

The commandant offered that 200 Sunni IDP families from Parachinar be accommodated in the Akhtar Academy building. Sunni tribal leaders asked the commandant to accommodate them in an area in Parachinar since the city was said to be under the federal government’s writ. The commandant disagreed and threatened to take requisite action against those tribal leaders who would not comply. The Sunni tribal leaders said that it was in the presence of the former commandant that many of their people were killed and the rest displaced from their homes, so it was hard for them to trust the current one. They also felt that the commandant was putting them in an awkward situation. Once back in Parachinar they would be vulnerable to heavily armed sectarian groups. This would provide an excuse to the military to start operations in Parachinar. The commandant had offered a plan to rehabilitate the Turi Bangash in Sadda Town in Kurram on their properties — the Turi were pushed out of their properties because of sectarian fighting way back in the 1980s. The commandant had tried to construct gates on roads leading to villages. The local Shia tribesmen demonstrated against the construction and under public pressure the commandant abandoned the plan.

The crisis in Kurram and the rest of Fata is beyond the capacity of the local commandants and political agents. Everything they do simply adds to the sufferings. The president of Pakistan should implement the Political Parties Act in the area so that disputes can be resolved through local political leadership. Intelligence agencies must stop using the area as a strategic space for its ‘great games’.

Published in the Express Tribune, June 6^th, 2010.

OSLO: With reference to my article “’The truth about drone attack fatalities” published in this newspaper on May 27, several people have contacted me asking for more details on the research paper mentioned therein.The paper has not yet been published and is under consideration with the Sentinel. However, those who wish for more information can contact Dr Brian Glyn Williams, Associate Professor of Islamic History, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.

Published in the Express Tribune, June 1st, 2010.

Three US researchers, Matthew Fricker, Avery Plaw, and Brian Glyn Williams have written a paper on US drone attacks in Fata. It contradicts the widely held view in the media and academia that the attacks lead to large-scale civilian casualties. Their paper titled ‘New Light on the Accuracy of the CIA’s Predator Drone Campaign in Pakistan’ will be published in the Sentinel, the magazine of the US Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Centre.

The authors analysed media reports from a multitude of sources on the US drone strikes in Fata over the last 10 months and compared the coverage of each attack. Where the reported numbers of fatalities differed, the authors favoured the most detailed and updated accounts. Where questions remained, they favoured newspapers of record, always using the lowest plausible count of militants reported slain. All women and children under 13 were assumed to be civilian. In case it became impossible to determine whether a person killed was a militant or a civilian, they assigned that person to the category ‘unknown’. By systematically applying these simple rules to the available information, the authors concluded that as of April 1 this year, there have been a total of 127 confirmed CIA drone strikes in Fata, killing a total of 1,247 people. Of those killed only 44 (or 3.5 per cent) could be confirmed as civilians, while 963 (or 77.2 per cent) were reported to be militants or suspected militants.

The identities of the remaining 240 individuals who died in these strikes could not be ascertained, and consequently they were placed in the ‘unknown’ category. Even if every single victim placed in the ‘unknown’ category was assumed to be a civilian, the vast majority of fatalities would still be of militants. To be precise, the researchers arrived at a ratio of 3.4 militants for every civilian. The report is revealing because it leads to the conclusion that much of the reporting on these attacks in the Pakistani media and perception created among the general public as a result of such reporting is based on false assumptions — the main being that innocent civilians far outnumbered the militants who died as a result of the drone attacks.

Media reports say the attacks lead to large-scale civilian causalities and public opinion in Fata is against the attacks. The fact is that many understand that the attacks are needed to target the militants and that in most cases they manage to reach the intended target with great accuracy.

I have been questioning misleading reports about the drone strikes through my newspapers columns. But the misinformation continues to come out from both think tanks and media outlets. One recent example is a research report called ‘The Year of the Drone’ produced by a US think tank, called the New America Foundation. The report claims that 32 per cent of those who have died in drone attacks since 2004 have been innocent civilians. The report has been quoted extensively in the media often but is far from the truth, as the one that is to appear in the Sentinel clearly suggests. Furthermore, in a forthcoming research paper I intend to challenge and question the New America Foundation claim.

My hope is that this new report will caution researchers around the world against the ‘conventional wisdom’ that drone attacks lead to large-scale civilian casualties and instant anti-Americanism in Fata, and encourage them to interact directly with local people.

Published in the Express Tribune, May 28th, 2010.

Recently the Taliban chopped off the hands of three young tribesmen in Orakzai – Amal Khan, Razim Khan and Khaisteen – for alleged theft. The men, who come from poor families, are under treatment in a Kohat hospital. I had a chance to talk with the brothers of two of them, who are looking after them in the hospital.

They said that the men were brought to a bazaar where their hands were chopped off in public and that they were more or less left to bleed to death with no medical help. The tribesman who had accused the three men of theft had forgiven them but he, I was told, was afraid to convey this to the Taliban, out of fear that they might chop off his hands as well. There is no authority in Orakzai where the family members of the three men could have sought help. The agency is under de facto control of the Taliban (including a chunk of the Taliban from Punjab) along with al Qaeda foreigners. I was told that despite the ongoing military operations many of the Taliban’s private jails in the agency and training centres are still functioning.

This is not the first time that the Taliban have chopped off hands. On dozens of occasions in the past, they have amputated men, flogged people and hung up dead bodies on trees. And now this past week, they literally blew up two alleged spies by attaching explosives to them and triggering them — in a public place. Of course, this has the effect of causing extreme fear and dread in the local population which obviously has no choice but to see all this happen in silence.

Despite media coverage of this incident no one from the government has visited the three men who want to know under what law they were amputated. They said nobody can get them back their hands, but want to know who will compensate them for their loss in material terms, given that they have been crippled for life and will no longer be able to pursue a livelihood.

The root cause of the sufferings in Fata is the fact that the state of Pakistan doesn’t see matters beyond carrying out military operations in the region. There seems to be no concept of doing something for the people of Fata, most of whom consider themselves as second-class citizens of Pakistan.

As for the three men, they and their families are now living as IDPs in Kohat. They are seeking help from philanthropists in Pakistan or beyond to help them finance the purchase of artificial hands so that the men can at least work to support their families. I would request the people of Pakistan to generously extend help to them as a symbolic defiance to the Taliban, al Qaeda and the state’s flawed policies in the region vis-a-vis these militants.

Published in the Express Tribune, May 24th, 2010.

This article is in connection with the ongoing debate in this newspaper regarding whether Fata should be a separate province. Ayaz Wazir first wrote ‘Make Fata a province, too’ (April 30) and this was followed by a kind of rejoinder from Asad Munir (‘Fata should not be made a province’, May 4).

In Fata, there are three opinions in terms of its integration with the rest of the country. The first says that it should be made a separate province, the second that it should merge with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the third that it should stay as it is and that the Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) should be purged of their more anti-people provisions. In my view, the eventual route for Fata should be determined by the people of the region themselves without any pressure from outside. We always argue that the Kashmir issue must be resolved according to the wishes of the people of the area. So it would be hypocritical for us to support the Kashmiris’ right to self-determination and deny the same to the people of Fata.

There are mainly two suggestions related to reform. The first is that the Political Parties Act should be implemented in spirit and all parties should be allowed to campaign for votes in Fata and for this they should present their own ideas for legal, political, social and economic reforms. And the party that wins a majority of seats should then be given the mandate to implement this reform package. The second is that the same act be implemented by organising separate jirgas from each of the seven agencies. These jirgas should be elected and should, in turn, constitute a grand jirga at the Fata level. This grand jirga could act as a kind of ‘constituent assembly’ and it should be tasked with formulating a comprehensive reform package. This ‘assembly’ should also have women as well as minorities as members.

As for the police and the judiciary, the concern is whether residents of Fata can appeal to a higher court against, for example, police high-handedness. Right now they have no such means of seeking redressal and this is clearly an issue that our political parties need to address.

Based upon my extensive interaction with the people of Fata, it can be safely said that they want either a repeal of the FCR or, at the very least, major changes in it. They want to see all jihadis controlling Fata, whether local or foreign, pro-Pakistan or anti- Pakistan, crushed in target military operations. They also want the mainstream political parties of Pakistan to function in their area.

As a first step, the president of Pakistan – who has the authority to change the legal status of Fata – should promulgate the Political Parties Act in the area.

Published in the Express Tribune, May 15th, 2010.

OSLO: This is with reference to the various reports in your newspaper and elsewhere that Faisal Shahzad had perhaps received training in Wazirstan. The fact is that North Waziristan and indeed the whole of Fata should have been cleared of the Taliban and al Qaeda a long time ago.

Faisal Shahzad or no Faisal Shahzad, the terror networks in the area must be eliminated by Pakistan and if this does not happen then we may see many more like him.

Two suicide bombings at a registration centre for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Kacha Pakha area of Kohat killed 41 people on April 17. The IDPs were standing in a queue at the centre when the first suicide bomber blew himself up.

A second suicide bomber struck minutes later when people rushed to the spot to help the injured. Reportedly, a militant organisation, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al Alami, claimed responsibility for the attacks and it seems the motive for the attack was sectarian in nature. Most IDPs at this particular camp happen to be from the Manikhel and Bar Mohammadkhel tribes which are Shia and from Orakzai.

Furthermore, Kacha Pakha, a largely Shia area in Kohat, was hit by a terrorist attack for the second time in recent months. In September 2009 a suicide bombing killed 33 people and the same group claimed responsibility for the attack. An IDP, Rafil Hussain, who was injured in the latest attack, had lost his brother in the attack last year. The Shia tribes of Orakzai are being targeted because they are fully supporting the ongoing army operation against the Taliban.

As proof of this, one can see banners in support of the Pakistan Army in the areas of the agency dominated by these two tribes. Meanwhile, residents of Kacha Pakha and the nearby villages continue to receive threats from the Taliban. Schools, banks and post offices have received threatening letters and at least one has been closed down as has the registration centre since the attacks. Moreover, the United Nations has suspended humanitarian work for IDPs in Kohat and in neighbouring Hangu.

This has made matters even worse for the IDPs who are in any case living a miserable existence, fearful of another attack by the Taliban. The IDPs have said that the government and the UN should immediately resume the registration process so that they can get the required aid and relief. They have also requested the army chief for financial aid for those affected by the blast because so far none has been forthcoming. This is ironic given that they have staunchly supported the army action against the Taliban.

Some IDPs have also asked for assistance from funds set aside for the Fata Development Programme for Livelihood Development. In the case of a suicide attack in a nearby village of Lakki Marwat, those affected had been given assistance from these funds and the IDPs of Orakzai in Kohat want similar treatment. The government and the military need to provide security to the IDPs as many are feeling that they were targeted because they have spoken out against the Taliban.

Local support is essential for military operations against the Taliban but unfortunately whenever such support is forthcoming those who are behind it are ruthlessly targeted and hunted down by the militants. This happened initially in Swat as well until the force of public opinion compelled the military to launch an operation to oust the Taliban from the valley. Let’s hope that things do not come to this in the case of Orakzai or other parts of Fata.

Security forces of Pakistan declared victory in Bajaur in the first week of March 2010.

For the first time in history Pakistan’s flag was raised on Damadola, the Taliban stronghold in Bajaur. The Pakistani media showed images of people in Bajaur celebrating the success of the security forces. The people of Bajaur, however, inform us that not much has changed on the ground.

The Pakistan army has captured Damadola, Sewai and some other areas of Mamund but have left the Taliban relatively untouched, especially since seven more schools have been bombed since the announcement of the ‘victory’ and diehard Taliban commanders who were reportedly killed by the security forces turned out to be alive.

Residents of Bajaur inform that, following the daily surrender of Taliban members, they are set free again on the Jirga’s ‘guarantees, who feel pressurized by both the Taliban and the military authorities. The state authorities do not suspect these Taliban members following their ‘surrender’.

If caught again in acts of terrorism, the Taliban show the surrender letter given to them by military authorities and are allowed go free. The people of Bajaur complain that now the Taliban have a state-given clean chit and nobody asks them about their past atrocities against innocent tribesmen and women. They ask how can the state give them such a clean chit without accountability!

These new reservations are an addition to the long list of complaints that people of Bajaur have long held against the military and the Taliban. If the military’s daily claims of militants’ deaths are to be believed, more than 3000 militants would have been killed in the various operations in the area. On the ground, nobody can prove the deaths of more than a few militants.

The target killing of both neutral and pro-government tribal leaders continues to happen. Over 100 tribal elders have been target-killed. Over 80 schools have been blown up in the areas which the army claimed to have cleared. Local journalists cannot freely report due to a fear of either the security forces or the Taliban.

The ‘victory’ in Damadola seems to be a media gimmick to mould public opinion outside Fata, especially in the Punjab. The security forces of Pakistan have to really crush the Taliban. This is important to control the seemingly growing feelings of alienation in the area.

Seen from the perspective of the people of Bajaur nothing has changed in terms of elimination of the Taliban, some of those I spoke to said: ‘We hate the Taliban from the core of our heart but our passions for Pakistan are also drying up with each passing day. If the state has nothing to offer to us and if we have to be their slaves forever serving this state with our blood, then why not choose someone else for a master?’