Pakistan

Pakistan has 100,000MW production potential

Country still facing shortages; Diamer-Bhasha project must not be delayed

Imtiaz Ali Qazilbash November 22, 2015

If Pakistan is to develop economically and raise living standards, 50,000MW should be added in the next 15 years. PHOTO: REUTERS

ISLAMABAD:

As is well known, hydroelectric power is the cheapest, cleanest and indigenous form of energy. Pakistan has 65,000 megawatts of identified projects and 100,000MW potential.

The Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) was established for the development of water and power resources. I was among a small group of engineers that formed the nucleus of Wapda under the great visionary and genius Ghulam Faruque in 1958.

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In January 1959, we moved to Lahore. From 1958 to 1976 – a period of 18 years – Wapda was respected as a world-class organisation for being competent, efficient, completing large projects on time and within budgets. There was no corruption.

We completed the Warsak (240MW), Mangla (800MW) and Tarbela (over 3,000MW) projects in addition to a number of small hydel and several large thermal power stations.

An interconnected grid system at 132 kilovolts, 220kv and 500kv was installed from Warsak to Karachi with a state-of-the-art telecommunications and control system.

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Without adequate electricity, there could be no economic development and hydroelectric power alone was the preeminent source. In 1975 in the Pakistan Administrative Staff College, Lahore, we arranged a high-level conference on “The Role of Hydroelectric Resources in the Development of Pakistan”, chaired by then Water and Power Minister Yusaf Khattak and attended by the chairman and members of Wapda, federal secretaries as well as 200 water and power engineers.

My paper, which was adopted among conference recommendations, proposed the initiation of work on two major dams/projects on the Indus, after a study on the sites by a reputable consulting firm.

In December 1976, at the annual convention of the Pakistan Engineering Congress, in the multi-sectoral National Development Programme, announced by Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the stress on hydroelectric power programme of the 1975 conference was included.

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Good days gone

In Ziaul Haq’s long night of darkness, the development stopped. Nevertheless, the study on nine sites on the Indus was carried out from 1981-84 by the reputable Canadian Montreal Engineering company. It ranked Bhasha as the best site technically and economically, followed by Dasu, Thakot, Pattan and five other sites. It also prepared a comprehensive feasibility study of the Bhasha dam project.

The tragedy started when Wapda came under the chairmanship of three corrupt individuals from 1976 for 15 years (one of them still hiding abroad). They not only went for thermal power projects with quick kickbacks, but also retarded its core competency in hydel projects.

Corruption and incompetence crept into the organisation. The ‘only Kalabagh’ lobby was another insidious factor.

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As a member of the Planning Commission’s Working Group on Energy, I advocated hydroelectric power projects throughout 1990-91. In 1991 at the national seminar on the 8th Plan, I presented a list of 42 major projects. It led to the development of Wapda’s hydel programme – Vision 2021 in 2001.

This programme has been further expanded by Wapda, Private Power and Infrastructure Board and others and at present there are 87 major projects, not only for electricity production but also for storage of 42 million acre feet of water.

These include 15 very large projects including Bhasha (4,500MW), Dasu (4,320MW), Bunji (7,100MW), Kalabagh (3,600MW), Pattan (2,800MW), Thakot (2,800MW) and others. Then there are a whole range of projects in the 500MW range and lower. It is incorrect to say hydel projects are controversial. Only Kalabagh is.

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Climate change can only be ignored at our peril. Dams have to be built for storage and flood mitigation and to save agriculture. Recent warning from the Indus River System Authority must not be ignored.

We have to be wary of building more thermal power stations, particularly coal which the US, Germany and even China are giving up. The cost factor is crucial. Hydroelectricity should be Rs2 to 3 per kilowatt hour (presently Rs1.25) compared to coal at Rs12.5, furnace oil above Rs16, wind Rs14 and solar Rs22.

Delay will be costly

If Pakistan is to develop economically and raise living standards, 50,000MW should be added in the next 15 years. That is where the construction of Bhasha, Dasu and Bunji (16,000MW) on a fast track is imperative together with Munda and Akhori.

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Basha must not be delayed any further. What is essential is to arrange the $4 billion needed for civil works including the diversion tunnels and main dam, possibly from the $50 billion financing consortium proposed by China’s Three Gorges company with the IFC for Pakistan’s hydroelectric projects. Each year’s delay in Bhasha is costing the economy over $3 billion.

The writer is the former chairman of Planning Commission’s Working Group on Hydropower and Alternative Energy

Published in The Express Tribune, November 23^rd, 2015.

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COMMENTS (18)

Khurshid Anwer | 8 years ago | Reply . It was in 1994 when Benazir Bhutto rejected the Water Accord of 1991, an excellent initiative for developing consensus on Kalabagh dam, and opted for the oil based IPPs, not realizing that oil at $10 per barrel at that time would one day cost $100 per barrel, the hydel to thermal ration of 70:30 at that time has now become 30:70, putting all kinds of burden on the economy. Kalabagh dam is still the best bet, Bhasha dam site is the most difficult site for a dam in Pakistan and will take too long to build, also it will not utilize the copious flows of Kabul, Chitral, Swat, Haro and Soan rivers, nor will it control their floods which will keep playing havoc with south Punjab and Sindh every year, 38 maf, mostly from these rivers, flowed down to sea during the floods this year.

Khurshid Anwer | 8 years ago | Reply Bhutto’s only contribution to Dam building was that in 1976 he commissioned Tarbela dam which had much earlier been inaugurated by Ayub Khan in 1967. Thereafter consultancy work on Kalabagh dam was undertaken by World Bank and other foreign consultants which continued throughout Gen Zia’s tenure, international tenders were due to be floated in 1986 when the project had to be put on the back burner because of controversy arising on the political front, this was when Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan and launched a virtual revolt against Gen Zia, opposing him on everything including on Kalabagh dam, “Sindh will become a desert if Kalabagh dam is built” she had said. It was she who rejected Kalabagh dam and went for the oil guzzling IPPs from which we are suffering till today.

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Hisamullah Beg | 8 years ago | Reply Fabulous article reflecting deep love for Pakistan. An eye opener for short sighted and selfish leaders.

Khurshid Anwer | 8 years ago | Reply Consultancy work started on Kalabagh dam in 1976 after the commissioning of Tarbela dam, this work continued until 1986 when international tenders were to be floated but the project had to be put on the back burner because of controversy arising on the political front, this was when Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan and launched a campaign against Gen Zia and Kalabagh dam became a victim. Work on the dam could not have been started before 1986 so it is wrong to say that Gen Zia could have built the dam but did not.

M I Halim | 8 years ago | Reply A very good article not because the facts are presented but because the need of Hydro-electric Power Projects is realized from which the government is running away. There is no doubt that the Hydropower is the cheapest source of energy Pakistan can have right now, even though it will take time to develop, that's why the author has insisted that delaying the Hydropower Projects will cost us more and more as the years are passing. If we look at the China's CPEC loan (46 Billion US$), government is planning to develop the energy projects, not the Hydropower but LNG/Fuel powered projects. The reason to go for LNG projects is only Political i.e. this government wants to complete the projects before their tenure is over and on the basis of which they can rule Pakistan again ignoring how much it will cost to the people and Pakistan. This is very bad for Pakistan, we definitely need alternative energy sources but we should know that most of our people are below poverty line.Though by LNG/FO/HSD powered energy projects we're getting political benefits but dragging more people down the poverty line. We have recent examples of such project, Nandipur, Solar park and other power projects and now heard that a 36 Billion's Disney land, 160 Billion's Green line etc. are on its way. We as a nation and all the policy makers should think for the betterment of Pakistan not just our political or personal goals. I think Government should revisit the energy projects and should put huge chunk of funds into the Hydel power. As the author said many Hydropower projects are ready with the feasibility studies completes

Avinash Kumar | 8 years ago | Reply Pakistan have the potential to remove darkness from the country. But we are facing so many issues internally and externally. Internal Issues: 1.Corruption in wapda by politicians. 2.No matual understanding between different provinces especially on KalaBagh Dam which can produce 3600megawatts to national gridline. 3.Not enough financial resources to complete projects. 4.Political Chaos.... 5.Nawaz sharif's govt is more focused on renewable energy and have invested billions of dollars in Small projects such as QuaidEAzam solar park which is producing only 18mw. External Issues: 1.India is threat for Pakistan's economy.They are not allowing the waterflow because they created dams which is against the water treaty.When India is surplus in water they starts flowing water which is the reason for floods in Pakistan. Pakistan started bid on international level for Basha and Dasu dam but to harm the projects India blamed Pakistan that they are part of Kashmir state and disputed territories which results in failure for Pak as no foreing investor was interested anymore. 2.Govt wants loan from Imf,Asian Development work for infrastructure but no loan is provided for hydroelectric projects. 3.Foreign investors are not interested investing in Pakistan because they donot feel there money is secure beacuse of security reasons.(which is true to some extent) 4

Zafar | 8 years ago | Reply What an eye opener article. Thank you Sir for giving the true picture on the Generation capacity and proposals for going for Hydro vs Oil/Gas. I pray that our leadership also realize and act faster to bring us out of darkness. Load shedding has changed the nation. It is pity to see how common man has taken the load shedding as his destiny and adjusted the daily routine to the scheduled and unscheduled power availability. The current leaders should concentrate on the power sector with the same pace as they are on the transport sector. Infrastructure both on all sides is crucial. I wonder what is the level/education/experience of the advisers to the leadership.

ishrat salim | 8 years ago | Reply Classic article for our political leaders to ponder, but who cares ? It would not be out of place to mention that recently an article appeared with regard to MUNDA Dam ( 800 MW ) project. This project was initiated by JICA in 2000 which failed to take off due to Contractors inability & eventually handed over to WAPDA in 2008. PC 2 amounting to Rs 652 million approved for consultancy works. It was awarded to a consortium of SMEC of Australia, Nippon Koe, japan, NESPAK, ACE, EGC & BAK local partners.. Total revised PC for completion including all works awaiting approval for Rs 1.246 billion. This project is still under designed ( 60 % design complete ) stage because subsequent govts ( PPP & PML N ) have not paid the consultants as per schedule. This project is in FATA & remains suspended for reasons best known to Planning division, finance & ECC, thus costing tax payers Rs 53 billion yearly. This is the state of our priorities. While we are prepared to spend billions in metros, orange lines, motorways, LNG, Coal power projects, Solar, etc; we are ignoring the power projects which may provide cheaper electricity. This is one classic example of our rulers misplaced priorities.

Shakil Ahmed Khan | 8 years ago | Reply There is much more potential but it requires a sincere leadership not some kickback and quick buck makers at the expense of poor tax payers of Pakistan. All know hydal energy is the cheapest and environment friendly but no one is interested in it since the inception of so called bhutto-sharif democracy installed in Pakistan. since late 80's and early 90's they gone frenzy about thermal power that is based on expensive imported fuel or gas! their cronies got the 90% profit making contracts and since then Pakistanis are paying the price even if they don't produce a single unit Pakistan state has to pay them so why should they produce ? no motivation there they get cheaper fuel sell it in open market and don't generate electricity but still get paid as contract say so. But they still hasn't start making any sense, still carrying on installing thermal units as they make quick money and life time profit making ventures for their friends and frontmen. Not a single mega dam has been built since 1960s.

Kalimullah | 8 years ago | Reply Pakistan has the potential to give financial aid to EU and US. But reality is that it seeks aid from both.

Parvez | 8 years ago | Reply Everyone knows this including our politicians....when BB was asked to choose between Hydro power and oil generation, she chose oil saying....my children have to eat. The game of oil imports and pricing is one of the biggest corruption rackets even today.

shah | 8 years ago | Reply @Asad Khan: He Could Have Built Bhasha And Bunji Not To Mention Katazarah.It Was Raining Money Back Then

Ahad | 8 years ago | Reply I wish the people of Pakistan read and understand that how will they benefit from lower cost of electricity and then pressurize the government to build dams. It is the only way forward not the expensive electricity from CPEC projects.

A Sindhi | 8 years ago | Reply "The tragedy started when Wapda came under the chairmanship of three corrupt individuals from 1976 for 15 years (one of them still hiding abroad)." 1976 was bhutto's time sir. Zia has nothing to do with it. Please be brave enough to say that the good days started to go from bhutto's time and zia only continued it. I am from Sindh and I know how the institutions were made disabled during Bhutto's era who installed incompetent and corrupt people as heads of national/provincial revenue generating institutions just to get the political gains in return. These politicians have given us nothing but corruption and empty slogans...

Muneer | 8 years ago | Reply Very informative article.A good leadership with a strong will is the requirement.

Talha Khan | 8 years ago | Reply A great script for discussion and capabilities of Pakistan The previous four government has not done anything for the development of energy sector in Pakistan Putting all your fund/budget on road and transport will not benefit in the long run. If we have the capacity, we should initiate these power projects especially the Dams for industrial manufacturing to run at its optimum level. A cheap energy source will benefit cost of production in local/export orientated industries and will help people to consume electrical appliances at home. New electronic items factories will setup for job creation and value addition.

Imran | 8 years ago | Reply @ Asad Khan, Please read Sartaj Aziz's biography who was a Zia insider. According to him Zia scuttled the Kalabagh project to remain in the president chair.

Asad Khan | 8 years ago | Reply Lets be fair to Zia. President Zia had tried very hard to pull Kala Bagh off its feet but the on going situation in Afghanistan, KPK (NWFP then), Sindh was very hostile. In fact blasting of railway lines in Sindh was common and domestic political climate was not very good. Zia major fault is that he does not have the foresight to initiate Bhasha back then. Had Bhasha started rolling in Zia's time we would not have been in dire situation today as we are in now. regards,

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