Turkey votes again

The AKP has reversed the result of June 2015 election in which it lost its parliamentary majority

The electoral pendulum has swung again in Turkey, and the snap parliamentary election held on November 1 has produced a decisive result. The ruling Justice and Development Party, the AKP, has reversed the result of the June 2015 election in which it lost its parliamentary majority and now has 49 per cent of the vote and 316 seats in parliament. This is a considerable reversal for the fortunes of the opposition parties that had not expected to lose and for the pollsters who got it so comprehensively wrong. The AKP now has a comfortable majority in the 550-seat parliament.

Analysts have scrambled for an explanation as to why millions of voters switched allegiances. The most likely explanation is the wave of violence and particularly the deadly bombings of the last four months, and the government’s promise to fight terrorism whatever its form, with the Kurds being one of the groups that the government regards as terrorist. Kurdish parties are claiming that the election was unfair, and that the media was suppressed, limiting Kurdish voices.

Turkey today sits at the centre of a range of international crises — none of them of its own making. The conflicts on the Turkish border with Syria have produced a refugee problem of apocalyptic proportions. Turkey is the conduit through which hundreds of thousands of desperate people are fleeing, en route to the Balkan states and ultimately northern Europe — to say nothing of the refugee population already hosted by Turkey. The European Union (EU) is almost desperate to get President Erdogan onside in its attempts to manage the crisis and it has warmly welcomed the electoral result. This leaves the Turkish president in a very strong position when it comes to negotiating terms under which the human tide may be turned — or contained. The EU is likely to find that Turkish cooperation in this matter is unlikely to come at a bargain rate. It is now for President Erdogan to try and heal wounds as he gets ready to rule a divided people.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 4^th, 2015.

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