The Taliban in disarray

A deadly power struggle is going on within the group and there is a long history of settling disputes by force of arms

The Taliban have always had a tendency to factionalise, be they in Pakistan or Afghanistan, and the death of Mullah Omar who at least nominally held the various groups together in a loose confederation, has lit a number of fuses. The time between when Mullah Omar actually died and the belated announcement of his death was an unannounced interregnum in which Mullah Akhtar Mansoor sought to secure his position. The announcement that he was the chosen successor to Mullah Omar was not met with universal approval within the ranks of the Taliban and the latent rifts became a reality. Not all Taliban leaders were prepared to swear allegiance to Akhtar Mansoor, and the hold-outs in the Afghan Taliban have now named Mullah Mohammed Rasool as the leader of a splinter group. Rasool is part of a self-styled ‘High Council of Afghanistan Islamic Emirate’. They have another powerful commander Mansoor Dadullah who holds sway in southern Afghanistan, as the deputy to Rasool.

This is not the Taliban playing musical chairs. There is a very real and potentially deadly power struggle going on within the group, and there is a long history of settling disputes by force of arms. It is too early to say if events in Afghanistan will impact Pakistan, but given that any differentiation between the Pakistan and Afghan Taliban is all but invisible in practicality, there will be reverberations on this side of the border. Theoretically, the split and the challenge to Akhtar Mansoor have the potential to weaken the Taliban — divide and rule — but with the Afghan Taliban on an uptick militarily this year, such a degrading of capacity could remain theoretical. Yet another unknown is how the Haqqani network is going to cast its cards. Ideologically aligned with the Taliban and rising in parallel with al Qaeda, the Haqqani network has retained cohesion as al Qaeda has faded from the Afghan stage. The Afghan Taliban have demonstrated a remarkable durability over the years and they remain undefeated. Any split is going to temporarily cramp the Taliban style, but is unlikely to offer an exploitable weakness.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 3^rd, 2015.

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