Swine Flu: One death does not make an epidemic

Doctors believe the swine flu virus may not turn out to be an epidemic.

KARACHI: Over the past three months, one person has died of swine flu and 12 other cases have been reported in the province but doctors believe that we are not looking at an epidemic as such.

Though there are instances when the supposedly mild infections have proven fatal with the passage of time, the head of the infections-control committee at the Aga Khan University Hospital (AKUH), Dr Bushra Jamil, says that swine flu always comes with seasonal variations, which are mostly mild in nature.

But expectant mothers need to be extra cautious because once they are infected, the flu becomes virulent with time. Moreover, the risk of swine flu increases in patients suffering from pneumonia or a renal disease.

The medical superintendant of Civil Hospital Karachi, Dr Saeed Qureshi, said that recently the patients who were suspected of having the flu tested negative, which shows that the cases are sporadic.

Out of the 12 cases recorded, eight of them were reported at the AKUH, three were reported at the Abbasi Shaheed Hospital (ASH) and one came from Sukkur, according to the data collected by the Sindh health department information cell.

ASH says, however, that it admitted just one patient in the past three months. The patient, Iftikhar Hussain, died a few days ago. Apart from him, no other patient has tested positive for the flu yet, says Hamid Zaheer, the medical superintendent of the hospital. He believes that the increase in the number of patients depends on the cold weather and whether it persists for a longer period. Patients or not, the hospital has prepared five isolation rooms and has also installed five ventilators.

Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre has not admitted any swine flu patients yet, says Dr Seemin Jamali, who heads the emergency ward. This is why the hospital has not even prepared an isolation ward. We are too busy treating the horde of patients who come in complaining of the common cold and flu, she adds.

Data-sharing problems with private hospitals

The health department and AKUH administration have been at loggerheads since last year. The private hospital shares “stale information” with the health ministry, the department claims. “We have to get done with the information as soon as possible because we have a surveillance cell to run,” says Saleem Khan, the PRO. On the other hand, the hospital administration wishes to follow its policy to maintain a patient’s privacy.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 3^rd, 2011.