Ankara bombings

Turkey is now caught in a perfect storm, a storm that is not going to pass in the foreseeable future

Turkey is in deep trouble. It is deeply polarised politically and the government has been unable to form a coalition after the last election, which means there is to be a snap election in November that is unlikely to repair the splits. The country is getting dragged ever deeper into the morass of the conflict with the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq, and is host to countless refugees from those conflicts. Within its own border, the fight with the Kurds has reignited with ferocity and the truce with the Kurdish PKK group has broken down. In this melee, as many as 128 people died on October 10 when two bombs exploded in Ankara in the midst of a peace demonstration. The explosions were caught on camera as was the grisly aftermath. Thus far, no organisation has claimed responsibility but there is no shortage of candidates — the IS, a Kurdish nationalist group, or pro-government forces acting in the role of agent-provocateur ahead of the elections. Of the three, IS is the most likely to have committed the atrocity, but other candidates cannot be ruled out.

The reaction of the Turkish government and security forces has done little to inspire confidence or heal wounds, both real and metaphorical. The police tear-gassed grieving relatives who had rushed to the site of the bombings and on October 11, also tear-gassed people who had come to lay roses at the site of the explosions. The announcement that there are to be two civil inspectors and two police inspectors to make an inquiry into the atrocity appeases nobody and the turmoil of Turkey, a model of peace and stability in the region prior to the Arab Spring, continues to rise. Looking closer, that peace and stability were an illusion, and there were latent splits and tensions that have now emerged, dragged into the forefront by the desire of the ruling party to hang on to power no matter what, and the chaos of Syria. The country is now caught in a perfect storm, a storm that is not going to pass in the foreseeable future.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 13^th, 2015.

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