Afghan-Pakistan strategy: Expect no surprises in policy review

Review comes as the US copes with Holbrooke’s death.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan does not expect major surprises when the US President makes public today (Thursday) the year-long review of his war strategy that seeks to turn the table on al Qaeda and the Taliban in the region.

There are indications from Washington that President Barack Obama is unlikely to make any major changes in his policy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, a Foreign Office official told The Express Tribune.

The official, however, said Pakistan hopes the White House will pay due consideration to its proposals envisaging ways and means to end a decade-long battle against extremism in the region.

It is widely believed that Washington and Islamabad have a difference of opinion on how to take the battle in Afghanistan to its logical conclusion.

Official sources say the US current strategy for the region either lacks clarity or they deliberately kept Pakistan out of the loop. They add that Pakistan in its input for the review suggested a ‘comprehensive’ plan to find a political solution to the problem.

The White House spokesperson said President Obama will stick to his pledge to start drawing troops home next summer. Reports say the US president’s war review will conclude that the US has made enough security gains to begin withdrawing troops by July 2011.

But the findings will paint a bleak picture about Afghanistan’s ability to serve its people and about the terrorists’ ‘safe havens’ in Pakistan.

On Tuesday, the top US commander Admiral Mike Mullen said in Islamabad that alleged extremist havens in Pakistan continue to be a crucial issue.

A summary of the classified war report is expected to be released on Thursday, when Obama will speak about the effort from the White House.

He is expected to cite the progress in combating the Taliban in Afghanistan, degrading senior al Qaida leaders, and improving cooperation with the Pakistani government, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.

He said the review will cite big challenges that still hamper the war effort, including Afghanistan’s capacity to build up its own basic services and security forces, and the ability of militants to reside in Pakistan and undermine security in Afghanistan.

Gibbs said the report will leave no doubt that the war is going better now than it was before Obama increased US presence in Afghanistan.

The release of the review comes as the administration copes with the death of Richard Holbrooke, Obama’s special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan and a central player in the shaping of the strategy.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 16^th,  2010.