Darkness risen

In Macbeth, Shakespeare has the Fourth Witch say these words — “By the pricking of my thumbs something wicked this way comes” and the words are a part of the Shakespearean treasury familiar to millions. Less well known is the sentence that follows — “Open, locks, whoever knocks” — and it is that knocking at what is in reality an already open door that gives cause for concern. The entity doing the knocking and bringing a tingle to thumbs everywhere is the Islamic State, IS, also known as Daesh. It knocked in bloody fashion in Jalalabad in the eastern Afghanistan province of Nangarhar on April 18. A suicide bomber killed 33 and injured perhaps as many as 115 when he detonated outside a bank where people were congregated to draw their salaries. The IS was quick to claim the killings and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani saw no reason to doubt the claim, at the same time pointing out that the Taliban had not made any claim of the atrocity and thus confirming the IS as an established presence in his country.



Typically, terrorism is successful in places where governance is weak or absent, and Pakistan has no shortage of areas where the government writ does not run at all. In these ungoverned spaces, the seeds of the IS have been sown. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, commenting on the attack, said that terrorism was an enemy common to both Afghanistan and Pakistan and we do not disagree with him; it is. Equally held in common is the inability of either national government to successfully eradicate terrorism, or subvert the mindset that allows terrorism to become embedded in the first place. In Pakistan, there has been considerable military success in fighting terror, but the hearts-and-minds campaign that needed to be waged alongside the military has never come together at a national level, and is only patchily being addressed provincially — and that too, with no coordinated uniformity.

The IS has not formally announced its presence in Afghanistan, and its presence here has been repeatedly denied for months by Pakistan government representatives. There has been IS leafleting and wall-chalking, principally in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, but in other provinces as well, which is indicative of an IS latency even if it is not fully operational as yet. As evidenced on innumerable occasions in places where the IS has penetrated in the last year, it is rich, highly organised, well armed, trained and has the capacity not just to commit acts of terror, but crucially, to govern as well. Unlike other terrorist organisations, the IS has a proven capacity to take and then hold and administer large areas. In short, the IS delivers in some places on its promise to create what it calls the caliphate, and that should give our government cause for grave concern.

This is not to suggest that the IS is about to take over parts of Pakistan as suddenly as it did in Iraq. That is most unlikely in the foreseeable future but what is more likely — indeed may well have already happened — is that the IS will establish an operational capacity in Pakistan. The churn inside the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan has already produced expressions of allegiance to the IS by groups known to be well armed and experienced in asymmetric warfare. There is disaffection within the Taliban ranks about the lack of visibility of their putative leader Mullah Omar, who has not been seen or heard of since 2001. For that disaffection to translate into IS support operationally would be dark news indeed.

A further area of concern is the safety or otherwise of foreign nationals living and working in Pakistan. The unsuccessful attempt to kill an American academic in Karachi was claimed by a group said to be affiliated to the IS. On that basis, no foreigner living and working in an unsecured environment can be regarded as safe. Something wicked has this way come, and it found all the doors helpfully unlocked.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 21^st,  2015.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.