The Yemen quagmire

The report that 503 Pakistani citizens have arrived back in the country safely after being evacuated from Yemen is much to be welcomed. There was further welcome news in that a second flight with 350 aboard was also on home ground — and the evacuees carried with them some much less welcome news. The Houthis from whom they were fleeing had, until they heard that Pakistan was supporting Saudi Arabia, left the Pakistani citizens alone. That changed once the Pakistan position was clear to the Houthis and there in microcosm lies the conundrum at the heart of the support we may give Saudi Arabia. The evacuation operation is ongoing. The Foreign Office estimates that there are 2,000-2,500 Pakistanis still in Yemen, about 1,000 of who wish to leave. Pakistan is also providing support to another of our allies — China — with the evacuation of its citizens from Yemen.

Whilst it is heartening that the evacuation appears to be proceeding satisfactorily, one has to question the wisdom of our government announcing its support for Saudi Arabia as quickly as it did, because the blowback in Yemen was entirely predictable as far as Pakistan citizens were concerned. The numbers involved are relatively small and within easy geographical reach by air and sea and Pakistan has the resources to complete the operation with little difficulty. Much greater difficulty attaches to the ‘what next’ scenario for the planners in our government. Pakistan has umbilical ties to Saudi Arabia. There are 2.1 million of our citizens currently working there and they remit back home a lot of money every month. The actions against the Houthis by Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners are essentially pre-emptive as there is no direct or even clear indirect threat to its territorial integrity by them. Many people are seeing this conflict more in terms of it being sectarian in nature than anything else. The possibility that Pakistan will commit ground forces in support of Saudi Arabia fills us with grave foreboding. Whilst essential to early life, umbilical cords are of necessity severed sooner or later. ‘Between a rock and a hard place’ is where we are, and there are no easy choices.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 31^st, 2015.

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