Neighbourhood watch: Military offensives may derail reconciliation process

Afghan analysts say Taliban unlikely to pick a fight.

ISLAMABAD: As a vast majority of Afghans look forward to some progress vis-à-vis the peace process, the country’s security forces have launched ‘mopping-up’ operations against the Taliban in areas where the insurgents gained influence.

Taliban insiders say they are also planning their ‘biggest’ offensives as the weather warms up. They traditionally start their annual spring offensive in late April or early May, and this year it will pose as the first serious challenge for Afghan security forces in 13 years as they face their armed opponents without the support of foreign troops.



The ensuing conflict could be a setback for the much-anticipated reconciliation process and will require renewed efforts from all countries and groups involved in the peace talks.

Operation Zulfiqar

Afghan security forces are battling the Taliban in the south of Helmand, the Pukhtun-majority province considered a Taliban stronghold. The operation, codenamed “Zulfiqar” was launched nearly two weeks ago.

Afghan officials claim to have inflicted heavy losses on Taliban fighters, however, correspondents in the region said heavy shelling by security forces have caused the destruction of civilian homes and casualties.

“We have suffered more since the government’s forces have launched the offensive,” said residents of Sangin district quoted by the BBC Pashto service, which also stated that the army has not made any significant gains.

Moreover, Afghan analysts believe the Taliban are unlikely to unilaterally launch major offensives against the government, as their ‘enemy number one’–the invading forces–have left the country minus the few thousand American troops that remain in an advisory and supporting role.

Nazar Mutmaeen, a noted security analyst, believes it would not be the Taliban’s strategy to launch any big operation against Afghan forces. “The onus is on the government. In case they want to test the Taliban muscle, they should expect a dangerous response,” Mutmaeen told The Express Tribune from Kabul on Friday.

Mutmaeen, who also travelled to Helmand last week, said Afghan forces did not cause any “major harm” to the Taliban fighters and that the artillery shelling “mostly hit civilian buildings”.

Afghan forces have reportedly planned similar operations in Kandahar, the Taliban birthplace, Farah, Zabul, Uruzgan, Kunduz, Takhar, Sar-e-Pul and Ghor provinces. Afghan media reports that these operations will be jointly conducted by the army, police and the National Directorate of Security–Afghanistan’s premier intelligence agency.

American assessment

As concerns are growing fast about intensification of fighting in the coming months, American officials say the Taliban could gain more territory in Afghanistan this year.

“The Afghan National Security Forces will need more foreign help this year to withstand an increasingly aggressive Taliban insurgency,” James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence said in a report to the US Senate Armed Services Committee this week.

“The Taliban probably will steadily reassert influence over significant portions of the Pashtun countryside, positioning itself for greater territorial gains in 2015,” Clapper said in the report. The Taliban see the exit of coalition forces as a sign of its inevitable victory, he wrote.

Road to peace

Afghan officials are still hopeful of Pakistan’s cooperation to push forward the peace process. “The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan welcomes cooperation in the peace process of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, a brother country,” Afghan Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ahmad Shakib Mustaghni said at his weekly press briefing.

Pakistan’s ambassador in Kabul, Abrar Hussain, has formally delivered a letter from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Afghanistan Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah inviting him to the country.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 7^th, 2015.