Maintaining the status quo

Conducted properly, census and local bodies polls, will lead to improved governance, greater political participation

Let’s be honest, we aren’t honest people. We say one thing, do another. Preach, but not practise. For example, we just need to go back to the 2013 election campaigns. Amongst several other things, the PTI had promised to hold local government polls within the first 90 days of coming into power. Not surprisingly, this has not happened in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa — or in Sindh and Punjab. Surprisingly, however, elections have been held in Balochistan and local bodies will soon be established there. The irony is that the other three provinces now need to play catch up to Balochistan.

Similar to the PTI’s failed promise, the PML-N had promised, among other things, to conduct a country-wide population census within the first month of its tenure. We are well into the twentieth month, and the census has only just entered the conversation. The two — local governments and a population census — are inextricably linked. They are connected because the major political parties risk losing much of their support base if local bodies are installed and a census is conducted. Let me explain.

A census should have been held in 2008, but the previous PPP-led government failed to act in this regard, and now it is seven years overdue. Hence, the last available data we have for our population is 17 years old, from 1998. The consequence of this is that all the demographic changes taking place due to migration and the war on terror remain undocumented, and social and economic indicators remain imprecise. (No one will be able to tell you accurately about the demographic and ethnic make-up of Karachi, for instance.)

A new census will mean the redrawing of constituency boundaries. With rapid urbanisation, this will imply that the number of seats (both in the provincial and national assemblies) in cities will rise, while the number of seats in rural areas will fall. The PPP does not want this for obvious reasons; a majority of their support increasingly lies in rural areas. The PML-N does not want this because it will mean giving the PTI a chance of capturing its seats in Punjab. It does not know how things will play out in these new constituencies. Thus, it is happy with the status quo, which allows it to maintain control of Punjab. Also, provinces generally don’t want this because their resource allocation from the federal divisible pool will change, depending on the new population figures. Hence, the reluctance and delay in collecting the necessary data.

Having said that, it must be noted that the government recently announced that a census will be conducted, pending approval from the Council of Common Interests. Interestingly, the previous census was also conducted by the PML-N, as it ceded civilian space to the military. Read what you want into that.

As far as local governments are concerned, numerous scholars and researchers have pointed out the need for, and the benefits of, decentralisation. Thus, those need not be discussed here. The last time local government elections were held was in 2005, back when Pakistan was being ruled by a military dictator. Almost 10 years have passed, and we have had two national elections in between. Furthermore, four years have gone by since the historic Eighteenth Amendment was passed, which requires the provinces to decentralise power to the local level. However, politics at the provincial level has led to a situation in which three out of four provinces have not held local body polls. Sindh and Punjab, in particular, have delayed the process considerably and are still quite some way away from holding these elections, despite the directives of the Supreme Court and the Election Commission of Pakistan to speed up the process.

There are several reasons for why provinces have been dilly-dallying on this issue. First, having local governments will allow a new set of politicians to enter the picture, especially as there are lower barriers of entry in this system. They could then potentially move up the ranks over time to challenge the existing political elite. Let’s face it. None of the major political parties want that as they are perfectly happy with the status quo. The second factor relates to the organisational structure of the national parties. None of them have an organised set-up at the local level. Instead, the parties are structured top-down, where district level leaders play an important role. Thus, the PML-N in Punjab does not want to go to the local level, where it is not organised, and more importantly, where it can be potentially challenged by the PTI. Likewise in Sindh, the PPP stands to lose control of Karachi to the MQM, which has much more popular support on the ground.

Currently, the centralised, bureaucratic set-up favours both the PPP and the PML-N because of their substantial majorities in the provincial assemblies. In Sindh, for example, the PPP has the control to use the revenue generated from Karachi elsewhere in the province. With local bodies, it could lose some of this control of resources to the MQM. Thus, even when local governments are established, they will have been deliberately legislated such that the PML-N and PPP will not stand to lose much power. For example, according to the laws in Punjab, non-party based polls will be held. Furthermore, the new local bodies are designed in such a way so as to not give them any substantial fiscal or administrative powers — factors that the literature on the subject states are necessary for effective governance. Importantly, all four provinces have laws that mean the local governments will be subordinate to the provincial government, with the chief minister having the power to dismiss them. Thus, no province will fully devolve power to the local level, meaning the effectiveness of local bodies is drastically curtailed.

Conducted properly, both a census and local bodies elections, will lead to improved governance and greater political participation. Broadly, however, these would not be in the interest of the political parties, in particular the PPP and the PML-N, which prefer to maintain the status quo. Nevertheless, even if decentralisation is implemented half-heartedly, it would improve things as they currently stand and put us on the path forward.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 5^th,  2015.

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