The geopolitics of change

We require pragmatic approach in seeking mutual benefits through vision of future than problems, grievances of past

Since our independence, the one thing dominant on our thoughts, writings on security and foreign policy, has been fear. Embedding this fear is our assessment that our strategic environment is insecure and threatening on account of an imbalance of power and the adversarial intentions we attribute to India and a weak Afghanistan providing space and facilities to our adversaries for some benefits. In our assumptions of regional geopolitics and shaping our responses to it, we have taken the central pages of the realist textbook that have come to constitute the sacred text of our national security discourse. Not all of this is untrue because some hard historical facts support it — the Indian occupation of the Kashmir region in the early years of independence, intervention in East Pakistan and the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and many secret wars that the two countries have fought on Pakistani soil give a lot of support to the realist understanding of the world that is so popular.



Understanding the nature of threats and where they are coming from and why, is just half of the work. The real challenge is: how to diffuse and end them, and if they persist because of the bad intentions of others, how to fight them effectively on one’s own terms. While no country in the world can hope to change its neighbours or easily persuade them to value peace and cooperation, it is possible to change their behaviour by certain policies and kinds of politics. In the circumstances of internal and external security threats in Pakistan today, it is not easy to reject traditional notions of geopolitical determinism, but they must be revisited with some critical reevaluation. More attention should be accorded to the opportunities that might be changing the regional climate than the conventional constraints.

First, let us make this clear: Pakistan’s South Asian identity and its cultural, historical and religious heritage is linked to this vast region and cannot be rejected; nor is it desirable to do so. A rising India with a thickening strategic partnership with the US and the rising power and arrogance of the conservative Hindu nationalists, dominating the security establishment of India, should be, and are, concerns for Pakistan. But the choice is not between capitulation and confrontation. What we require is a pragmatic approach in seeking mutual benefits more through the vision of the future than the problems and grievances of the past. One important text of realism that many countries around the world, including Pakistan, tend to ignore is change as a permanent law of historical process.

Changes within the country — in science, technology, society and economics — in the regional landscape and the world affect bilateral and multilateral relationship. It is in the work of these changes that we see the US, a three-time strategic partner of Pakistan, moving closer to India. To the credit of India and its leadership, they understood the logic of change in the international environment.

Pakistan can transform its geopolitics of fear into geopolitics of opportunity through three ways. First, it must pursue a coherent national reform agenda in every field with a focus on the economy, development of natural resources and political stability. Who can or will do this is a matter of debate, but Pakistan cannot escape the logic of history. Second, Pakistan must make effective use of diplomacy to create a peaceful neighbourhood with economic interests at the centre of it. Finally, Pakistan should look north-west for policy prescription — China and Central Asia with trade, energy and power corridors offering vast opportunities.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 28^th,  2015.

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