The BJP and Article 370

Point being missed is that here are 2 nuclear powers & either side can trip; the stage for first & last nuclear war

With a decisive move by the Pakistan Army against militant outfits on the western front, the country is now faced with an exceptional situation on the eastern front: heavy pounding and heightened conflagration, and killing of civilians in a densely populated belt along the Line of Control (LoC) and the Working Boundary. Added to this is the terror attack near the Wagah Border on November 2, which will have its own implications on relations between the two countries although it may be too early to comment on this. There is always a starting point when such tensions flare up between the two sides. This time, it should be clear that Pakistan did not initiate this latest round of tensions as it is completely tied down in the war on terror on the western front.

While Pakistan has been exhorting for immediate parleys to be held between India and Pakistan and for a cessation of firing on the LoC, India seems to be in no mood to comply. The reason for that is not difficult to understand. After Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the US, hardliners in the Indian government are ranting day in and day out about adopting a ‘boli nahi, goli’ (bullets, not talk) approach. In the US, Modi was warmly received by President Barack Obama. It was the same US, which had denied Modi a visa for a decade for his alleged complicity in the Gujarat pogrom. This time, however, Modi enamoured his host and was able to extract a Pakistan-specific joint statement that put Pakistan on the spot for militancy and harbouring infrastructure that enables militant activities. The two leaders, in their expediency, glossed over the fact that the Pakistan Army was fighting a decisive war against militants. Apart from the U S elixir, the Chinese president’s visit to India — other than billion-dollar deals — brought in symbolic dividends, with the Chinese president landing in Ahmedabad, capital of Modi's home state, instead of in New Delhi. Japan has also extended record economic assistance and will join India as a partner in naval exercises in the Indian Ocean.

Discerning minds should not, however, forget that ‘Rising India', at the same time, is headed by a person in Narendra Modi , who despite receiving huge support from corporate India, represents a mind nurtured deeply in the philosophy of the RSS. This right wing, Hindu revivalist conglomerate does present a fairly broad spectrum of ideas and followers so it is too early to predict where Modi figures on the RSS continuum. At one end, there is a stream that spearheaded the demolition of the Babri Mosque, which caused one of the worst communal riots since independence. The same breed was responsible for the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi. The other stream was represented by people like the level-headed and suave Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who could even find a bond with the Jamaat-e-Islami if the situation demanded it. Only time will tell which stream Modi will end up following.

Conflagration on the LoC may be viewed from yet another perspective as a testing ground for Pakistan's resolve and patience. The inner core of the Modi government has made its intent clear, taking a shot at amending Article 370 of the Indian Constitution that accords special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir. This provision protects the demographic character of the occupied state. It is the only state, which also has its own constitution protecting its special status, giving the right of permanent residence and ownership to Kashmiris only and bars Indians having domiciles of other states from enjoying these rights. Any change to that effect not only requires an amendment in the Indian Constitution, but also requires the concurrence of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly by a two-third majority.

The BJP is vying for making a deep ingress into the state assembly through state elections. The ultimate objective of this will be to tinker with the constitutional mechanism that exists between the state and the union and change its demographic profile, not realising that this may lead to another intifada that may engulf the whole state in bloody violence. The constitutional provision of allowing only Kashmiris to be permanent residents has a history of nearly 100 years now. In the 1920s, the maharaja of the state linked this special status with ancestral lineage and this right was secured after independence through the instrument of accession signed in 1947. This was sensibly protected by the framers of the Indian Constitution. Such a special status is not an alien concept even in modern times and we can see its application in Hong Kong and Macau.

Rising and persistent escalation on the LoC will land India in the same bind in which Pakistan was sucked into in the 1990s when the philosophy of ‘bleeding India to the last drop’ was hyped. In the end, what we got was a pulverised society at home and excessive militarisation of the Valley by Indian troops. The BJP leadership minces no words about its stance on Article 370. As a sequel to that, it wishes to degrade Pakistan's capability to react to this. The point being missed is that here are two nuclear powers and either side can trip, setting the stage for the first and the last nuclear war on the planet, which could result in the living envying the dead. ‘Teaching Pakistan a lesson’ is a puerile way of approaching a complex problem. Let diplomacy be given a chance. There are far more pressing problems to tackle than pounding hapless civilians at the LoC.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 4^th, 2014.

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