Pakistan’s Sartaj Aziz laid the blame on India for using escalation for political gains inside Kashmir. India, on the other hand, suspects Pakistan’s military for scuttling the peace initiative between the two sides, which was something close to the Pakistani prime minister’s heart. Starting from his second term during the 1990s, Nawaz Sharif, and even the PML-Q government that came to power later, managed to change the perspective of the Punjabi entrepreneurial class towards ties with India. Punjab does not feel averse to dealing with India beyond conflict. However now, any mention of peace talks by Nawaz Sharif would be tantamount to shooting himself in the foot and the rest of his body.
The deterrence buffs find conditions not too good mainly due to the Indian government’s perceived belligerence. Reportedly, it declined Nawaz Sharif’s request to meet with Kashmiri leaders during his visit to New Delhi for Narendra Modi’s inauguration ceremony. New Delhi sees itself as having arrived on the international scene and so feels that it must deal with threats differently. Using the world’s eagerness to engage with India to its advantage, it feels confident in even provoking China in the South China Sea.
In the same spirit, the Modi government seems poised to test Rawalpindi’s capacity to run the Kashmir conflict on terms favourable to it. So, while former army chief Pervez Musharraf has turned into an unofficial-official mouthpiece — almost like what Dr Qadeer Khan was for General Ziaul Haq during the 1980s — and talks about Pakistan’s readiness in using nuclear weapons if and when required, the signalling from the other side is ‘let’s dare you to do that’. I remember a conversation many years ago with the senior diplomat mentioned above.
This formula contained escalation of the Kargil conflict or eruption of a war in 2002, or later, escalation of tensions post-Mumbai. However, this formula did not save the day for Pakistan during the Kargil operation. Had there been a thorough investigation of the Kargil misadventure, we may have disabused ourselves from the idea that the responsibility for our failure lay with the prime minister. The nuclear umbrella works both ways. It saved us from the expansion of conflict as had happened in 1965, but not from losing the initiative. This is certainly a lesson drawn by experts and writers like Admiral (retd) Raja Menon, who had argued in his book that Pakistani military officers are rational players and would not extend the threat to a point where either side would be forced to switch from conventional to non-conventional weapons. It is because the losses in case of a nuclear war are of a much higher scale than in case of a conventional war. Using these weapons is easier said by Musharraf than done.
The retired diplomat’s and the general’s worry does not imply that Pakistan may not be able to protect itself, but that the Modi government may want to now test Menon’s prognosis even further. Although renowned Indian journalist Praveen Swami seems to have reminded New Delhi that belligerence on the border will not change the Pakistan Army’s attitude, the Indian government appears in a mood to see how far it can push Islamabad away from the Valley, especially making it difficult for cross-border infiltration. The firepower could slow down the access of militant warriors to the Valley, especially making it difficult for new entities like al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), which seem to be concentrating on Kashmir. Nuclear deterrence still works in the region except that India is trying to turn the tide in its favour using the umbrella for gains at the sub-conventional level. Moreover, trapped on the other side of the border in Pakistan, these people could become restless and, hence, become costly for Pakistan. New Delhi also has the confidence that the international community, already suffering from a fatigue factor vis-a-vis Pakistan, will not jump to Islamabad’s help. But this could also prove to be a risky formula. The stakes could become equally high for Modi, who wants to look powerful, but also be successful in delivering economic dividends at home. A war may change it for him. Over-extending the test of military might is a formula which requires careful thought.
Modi’s plan may be to talk to Pakistan, but only when he is confident of obtaining sure gains for India. The only question is will such cost calculation be influenced by its military, which is keener to play an aggressive role in national security policymaking? A politicised military influencing decisions is always a dangerous formula (in India’s case, politicisation means involvement in realpolitiking and increased influence over national security decisions). Trained in war rather than in diplomacy, military men (whether they are serving or retired) could cloud ultimate policymaking differently. It may not even prove beneficial for operational decisions.
We may not have reached the stage of being at a greater risk of a nuclear Armageddon, but the nuclear deterrence Pandora’s box has opened yet again. At least in Islamabad, there is now an army of newly trained nuclear deterrence experts, who will get down to brass tacks to suggest a build-up.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 30th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (46)
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the writer is locked up in a cold war mind trap and therefore any possible is outside the writers comprehension. Hence flogging old horses leads to a blind alley.
For any solution to place first need to accept that the world has moved on.Therefore assumptions based on failed polices are doomed failure.
After the Indian military offensive, all has gone quiet on the western front!!
Rex Minor
Please understand. If you take out words or grammar of Sanskrit origin out of Urdu, it will cease to be a language. Same is the case with Hindi if you try to remove Arabic/Persian/Turkik vocabulary.
@parvez: thanks for your comment. Unfortunately, we the people of the subcontinent are not that wise. Shall we say, WE WILL STARVE FOR OUR RELIGION SO OUR RULERS CAN GO TO BED WITH FULL STOMACHS. We are such IDIOTS! No wonder everybody conquered us.
I wonder if ET mod. will allow the following comments of the observer;
@Sri Varahadev:epresents The current Prime Minister of Pakistan represents none others than the interests of Sharif enterprise! He went to inaugurate Mr Modi accession to the throne and will repeat the visit if it protects his family interests. The political and the military leaders of India have spoken loud and clear and so have the majority of Indian patriots; the ball is in Pakistans court now!! It is incorrect to assume that Nuclear weapons are meant for deterrence, their use is preventive or to react against aggression when the enemy forces tresspass by massing up on frontiers or throwing fire across on civilians forcing them to leave their dwellings. Pakistan military must act and act now or withdraw to its cantonments and go into silence.
Rex Minor
@Professor: I do not know what you teach, so cannot comment. But if you teach political science/IR/foreign policy, you must be familiar with the bureaucratic model of policy-making. It is not necessarily restricted to Pakistan. The bureaucracies (both civil and military) play a major role in policy formulation and in every country of the world. I would like to list a few works on this model and its application in the U.S. foreign policy-making process but space does not allow me to do so. Ms. Siddiqa has done an excellent job in explaining the developing scenario of India-Pakistan relations. I wish there may be more like her who can look at the issues from an academic perspectives and educate us through newspapers op.eds. @The Indian commentators: please show some respect for one's analysis and look at the issue from an academic perspective. Jumping up and down and without any concrete evidence or logical argument dilutes the academic spirit. Hate to say but if you cannot take heat, stay out of the kitchen.
Second attempt at a comment : Debates such as this are conducted by people with full bellies. The millions in both countries that have to think how to get their next meal would say ' we are dying, so go ahead with your nuclear, shuklear stuff because then you too will surely die.
pak was not able to keep bangladesh with him, there is unbelievable unrest in pakistan itself,pakistan policy are ruledby army not by elected govt, what is there, , the best thing for india and pakistan is to forget kashmir and concentrate on development and trade, same thing shd apply to chine and india, south asia has to learn from western countries and donot become monkeys of western countries, example is who is responsible for present afghanistan crisis, i believe afghanistan was a prosperous state in 70s, russia came to afghanistan, usa funded taliban and rest is history,any way allah has decided everbody faith including the faith of countries,
If ET has changed its editorial policy, be straight forward and say so, as over the past week even multiple postings of the same innocuous posts are failing to find place in the comment connection. Getting on to the latest attempt of posting …………….
There is a silver lining for Prime Minister Modi in this so called “snub” in that there is no likelyhood of even slightly annoying a voting supporter of the BJP and PM like myself by associating with the Delhi Imam. Further plus will be that no other BJP party member will attend reducing to zero my slight annoyance. Regards, the attendance of Pakistan’s PM Mr. Nawaz Sharif, he does not need to be given an Indian visa.
@IndianPardesi:
Thanks.
@Jag Nathan: Why should it sigmatize Muslims? Imam asked Muslims of Delhi to ote for Congress in the federal elections. The fact that Congress lst deposits in most seats tells me that most Delhi Muslims do not consider him their leader. In any case, it is his business wom he inites in his family function.
The author provided the answer in the first paragraph itself. Since Nawaz Sharif was keen on mending ties, the Pak military whose survival depends on constant enmity with India just could not take it lying down. Modi was a heaven-send for them to start a scuffle at the border and at the same time organize a "rally" for Kashmiri rights in the UK. You could see that this was a well-orchestrated effort. Trouble is, nobody turned up. The multi-pronged strategy would have worked if there was any wind left in the Kashmiri sail. The world doesn't care now and Pakistan's word does not carry too much weight internationally.
It is actually an illogic of deterrence where only nuclear deterrence is deemed sufficient.
Nuclear deterrence without adequate conventional deterrence won't work, period.
The Imam's unviting Modi does not dim Modi's greatness or popularity in any way. It goes to prove just how petty & stupid the Imam is. The act will only go towards further stigmatization of Muslims and their marginalization With Imams like Bukhari, Indian Muslims would not need enemies.
@Plausible Deniability: @Gp65:
I agree with most of what both of you have said here and elsewhere. I have always wanted to add to the debate in a substantial manner but majority of the time my comments are cut by the scissors of the ET Moderator. They are more interested in printing sensational, emotional, irrational outbursts than logical, factual, rebuttals or agreements because certain truths about Pakistan and its religious grips are too hard to swallow, let alone to be printed as a comment on ET. Let's see if this gets cut as well.
During the height of LoC situation, Mr. Modi went two steps further and reiterated that “this is not the time for empty boli (talk), but for goli (bullet) by our Jawans.” The statements in the context of recent LoC tensions are quite apprehensive towards Pakistan, once again bringing the entire sub-continent under the dark shadows of war. Mr. Modi seems to have adopted the policy of achieving political objectives through threatening to fight a war with Pakistan, without understanding the animosity of the regional and international security situation, especially ignoring the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear weapon state.
Modi government can no more avoid the truth that Kashmir is the real bone of contention and it must be resolved through diplomatic means and according to the UN resolution. But the most importantly, Mr Modi wants to damage Pakistan without escalating a nuclear war, but BJP government should realize that Pakistan is no more subservient state. Pakistan can defend it's territories being nuclear power. Of course the South Asian deterrence posture has been altered by Modi's aggressive posture. He is escalating tensions between nuclear rivals. It's BJP that has deteriorated the peace and stability in the region.
International community should also feel and consider the sensitivity of the issue, and must not behave like a passive observer. Tribute must be paid to Pakistan for the extra-ordinary measures that Pakistan has taken, and is still taking in the war against terrorism. Considering the precious sacrifices that have been given by Pakistan in war against terrorism, the international community should take such measures to refrain India from committing irresponsible actions against Pakistan that could be disastrous to the security and stability of the region. On the other hand international community should also be mindful of the fact that Pakistan is only state in region, which is fighting against terrorism not only for its own sake but to ensure the peace at global level.
@Tazeen: Modi and India can achieve all its goals without crossing the border, making the ability of Pakistan to put its nuclear weapons to use redundant. Without any invasion nuclear weapons are merely toys to be kissed.
Pakistan is very much clear about the lines under the concept of nuclear deterrence. The very military developments, the aggressive policies since the Modi sarkar cam into power have altered the regional strategic balance and is somehow on a way to drag the region to thr brink of war. Latest LOC firings and border skirmishes actually giving the gesture that Modi after coming into power now trying to exert its influence and to implement the very concept of hindutva, which is actually not acceptable to the party on the border. Modi by initiating these activities have actually proved that it is not in favor of peace and regional stability while at the same time demanding Pakistan to surrender out of its conventional inferiority. All these actually would make Pakistan to go beyond limits in order to protect its border and to maintain the state's dignity.
It is obvious that the population of India is playing to its favors even in the comments sections of Pakistani newspapers. How effectively they would only like to put their piece of minds without any sort of acceptance to alternative perspectives and the possibility that India might be the aggressor this time. What is happening on border is because India has a new radical government which believes in passing a statement through violence. Pakistan has no reason to engage in border skirmishes when the army is already engaged in a large scale operation on western border.
And on a side note, I dont know why Pakistani government had their hopes so high with Modi at the first place.
@someone: Pakistan has nothing to match India's coventional strength,all it has,are the Nukes.If India goes on an offensive and Pakistan feels threatened for its existence,rest assured,Pakistan would use the Nukes for that would be its last resort.All major Indian cities are on target and so are all Pakistani cities for Indian nukes but lfirst to use the Nukes would get it done with once and for all and most probably its going to be Pakistan since it has got nothing else to protect itself with in a conventional warfare.Full scale escalation should be avoided at all costs,the poor people of this region deserve more than Nukes,on either side.
Regarding Pakistan, there are clear defined lines about the parameters of nuclear deterrence as it is well reflected in the organization buildups of all the nuclear infrastructure domains. On the contrary, Indian policy makers are still in the process of defining the lines. The current BJP government very openly expressed their high concerns on India NFU policy and nuclear doctrine. But under the pressure they revert back from their ambition to change Indian Nuclear Doctrine. Whatever is happening on border was expected long before because Modi very cunningly used diplomacy on the outset along with aggression beneath. That is why he called PM Nawaz to show a good gesture to world and strengthen its pledge of aggression against Pakistan.
The world first time visited the notion of deterrence during the Cold War. There were heightened of tensions between US and USSR but Cubin Missile Crisis of 1962 made both of them to initiate a channel of Hot line. Very simply, Cold War remains ‘cold’ due to the presence of nukes. Followed by this, deterrence stepped in South Asia after nuclear tests by India and Pakistan simultaneously which go with lower intensity conflicts but not the major war. This time in year of 2014, many things have been changed and improved regarding the nuclear deterrence of South Asia. What has not been changed is the BJP/Modi openly display of aggression against Pakistan. There is a period of Congress which passed on without the fear of nuclear exchange. Now, horrified with nuclear exchange because of BJP mindset especially the followers of Greater India under Hindutava concept.
@BruteForce:
I agree with you. In TV series West Wing there is this lovely dialog by Martin Sheen, who played the US president. He asks "What is the virtue of proportional response?"! If an intransigence is only responded proportionally, wouldn't the other party expect it and be prepared for it? If a response should act as deterrence, then it has to be disproportional.
Achieving credible nuclear deterrence at the lowest possible cost and level – the issue must be placed in a proper, broader perspective. It means taking into account the chain of rapid developments that have undermined the region’s strategic equilibrium and affected Pakistan’s nuclear threshold. They include the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, exemption for India by the Nuclear Supplier’s Group, India’s conventional military and strategic build-up, enunciation of offensive doctrines involving ‘Proactive Operations’ and efforts to develop a missile defence capability.Pakistan’s aim is not to engage in relentless production but to attain sufficiency for a spectrum of nuclear weapons, strategic, operational and tactical and to assure a second-strike capability.
@Gp65: Had to water it down to begin with and some of it has been cut as well.
Ma'm, In India we would never write 'Admiral (retd) Raja Menon'. Instead we would write 'Admiral Raja Menon (retd)'. This is because the position never retires onlythe person does.
The present scenario reminds me of the classic Hollywood film "Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964) where an insane general triggers a path to nuclear holocaust in a war room full of politicians and generals frantically trying to stop
We have mad generals ,mad scientists , irresponsible society and politicians on both sides talking about nuclear exchange as if it is a video game.
Will Pakistan use nuclear weapons against a country which has 170 million Indian Muslims some who are related to Pak citizens/
There seems to be lack of humanity ( Insanyat) when you talk about nuclear weapons.
The conflict will never escalate into a nuclear war for the following reasons: 1.Everything that is happening at the LoC right now is to do with Mission 44 in J&K elections.Once the elections are over conflict will revert to the diplomatic level.Whatever has been tried to foment trouble during the elections by smuggling in trouble-makers has not worked. 2.Pakistani military will not escalate the situation to a point where they can be held accountable for a serious spillover.This will upset the nice enterprise that they have developed with living on the lion's share of the Pakistani fiscus. 3.India at this point holds all the cards on the international scene and with the global shift to the South-China Sea will continue to do so for some time to come.The western powers are not going to do anything to push India away or back into non-alignment and Chine is not going to commit any overt action to push India towards the west.(This means reduced support for pakistan going foward) 4.Pakistan's sources of revenue are drying up,aid is dropping if not dead.Wars cost money where will the funds come from?
@Plausible Deniability: @cautious:
India is sending a message that days of nuclear blackmail are gone. Both countries are nuclear and since the Pak generals understand the concept of MAD they will never pull the nuclear trigger. India in any case has a no first use policy. Up until now, Pakistani used nuclear blackmail to faciliate a subconventional war using proxies by assuming that nuclear sabre rattlng would prevent India from retaliating appropriately. Now for the first time there is nuclear deterrence because India has conveyed : don't you dare think of using your nuclear weapons because No first use is not the same as No use. Since the Pakistani generals are not suicidal, there is absolutely no risk of nuclear escalation.
If Pakistan wants to prevent escalation, it will have to rein in its proxies. That is nuclear deterrence.
@cautious: @BruteForce: Human!This is height of delusion. If shelling few mortars can satisfy your egos then be happy he is doing it per his plan.What will be yours reaction when he will drop economic bomb on your own country I'm curios.
@sattar rind: you are OK losing everyone you love and know? including your family?
Is that price OK for sending a few terrorists to Kashmir?
Because thats what is going to happen in a nuclear exchange. Nothing in Pakistan will survive
Believe me, its not worth it
If Pakistan can do a kargil and Mumbai under the umbrella, why can't India do it on the LOC?
@Mubarak Ali: well said!
I must confess this nuclear deterrence has always disappointed me. Where was it in Kargil, when Pakistan's nuclear weapons were all shiny and new? Down the line, since then, it seems that India has been doing pretty much as it pleases anyway viz. ignoring Pakistan, mostly. It is possible, of course that this 'deterrence' pertains to the inability to apply common sense to one's expectations of how much protection nuclear weapons can offer. Definitely, in the wrong heads, the possession of nuclear weapons can be a powerful deterrent.
Pakistan will have to spend more than 50% of its already stretched budget to even spend 30% of what India spends on defence.
So, India is hurting Pakistan, but only stretching its muscles - 1000 mortars raining down kilometers into Pakistan, a tiny cost for the 3rd largest Economy, but not so for a country which is not even in G20.
India should push Pakistan to go the Soviet Union way and spend more on defence than it can afford to.
War doesn't solve anything, but disproportionate reponse for every Pakistani provocation can do wonders!
It is the outcome of the failure our leadership both the military and civilian to stay in synch with the reality.
Blindly firing artillery across the border accomplishes nothing that has tactical value but it give the impression that Pakistan military is weak and appearance has always been a higher priority than substance to Pakistan's military. Maybe India is just sending a message that it doesn't take much effort to make life miserable for Pakistan's military leaders?
Madam, you have said it all but one precedence, the replay of what transpired when the former East Pakistan was snatched away by the Indian military. It is now poised to transgress in the Punjab and possibly Sindh and Baluchistan territories. The deterrence of a conventional weapon or a nuclear one has no major difference when both contrahands are equaly armed.
Rex Minor
pakistan is seems would not avoid to use all means war against the india if unfortunately war start between them. both must realize that it would be dangerous for anyone....
I think it has become a pet phrase for many Pakistani intellectuals , " nuclear Armageddon". However these intellectuals and general public should be shown the archived pictures of Hiroshima and Nagasaki to show them what it means to have a nuclear war. Today's nuclear weapons are much more capable of destruction. Unless Pakistan is ready for complete annihilation of its current and may be future generations, it should refrain from talking about Nuclear attack and what not. These old generals of Pakistan have lived their lives. Their sons and daughters are living abroad. Most of the Pakistani politicians are dual national and they would pack their bags if a serious war started with India. Only poor of Pakistan who can not go anywhere, would remain to face the heat of nuclear weapons and let me remind the Pakistanis, the retaliation could be massive from India. Pakistan should stop this nonsense at LoC to internationalize their Kashmir propaganda. Only one country would listen to you on this and that is India. But when gun blazes, no one can hear a thing.
"it feels confident in even provoking China in the South China Sea"
Already Pakistan is totally isolated, our only so called friend seems to be China. But we shouldn't be automatically accepting Chinese positions on international disputes and acquire more enemies across the world. Keep in mind China does not conduct that way on our disputes with other countries. Chinese have just announced several billion dollars investiment in India. Chinese did very little or nothing in our favor in 1999.
People from Vietnam and Philippines will strongly disagree with your statement. They feel China has been bullying them.
Have you talked to any one from Vietnam or Philippines or read about their positions vs China?