Modi’s bravado ups the ante in LoC flare-up
However, military officers in both countries and officials in New Delhi say the violence that has killed nearly 20 civilians escalated because of a more assertive Indian posture under the new government of nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
“The message we have been given from the prime minister’s office is very clear and precise,” said a senior Indian Home Ministry official. “The prime minister’s office has instructed us to ensure that Pakistan suffers deep and heavy losses.”
In his first extensive comments on the violence, Modi told a political rally on Thursday - when 1,000 Indian mortars rained across into Pakistan - that “it is the enemy that is screaming”. “The enemy has realised that times have changed and their old habits will not be tolerated,” he said.
The exchange of mortar and gunfire across a populated border area of Jammu, in the lowlands of Kashmir, has been India’s most serious brush with Pakistan in a decade. Almost 20,000 Indian civilians have fled their homes to escape the fighting, taking refuge in schools and relief camps.
Modi’s robust approach towards Pakistan, supporters say, is aimed at emphasising India’s ‘superior strength’ and making ‘Pakistan’s military think twice before firing across the border’. It is a strategy he also used to stand up to India’s larger neighbour, China, during a border standoff between several hundred Indian and Chinese troops on the Tibetan plateau that coincided with President Xi Jinping’s visit to New Delhi last month.
But the new stance risks more violence in the Himalayan region of Kashmir, already one of the world’s most volatile fault lines, and has eroded the ceasefire agreement that has largely held between India and Pakistan since 2003.
Since Modi’s election victory in May, military commanders have been encouraged to step up border patrols and retaliate with more force if they come under attack. New Delhi has insisted there can be no talks with Pakistan unless “it ends shootings and pushing militants” into Indian-administered Kashmir.
“This is what we feared would happen if Modi came to power,” said Ikram Sehgal, a former Pakistani military officer and chairman of one of the country’s largest security companies. “This could easily escalate into something that won’t be good for Pakistan or India.”
India may be gambling that Pakistan can ill afford to inflame hostilities in Kashmir while its army is engaged in a full-blown offensive against militants in North Waziristan Agency. But the stakes are also high for India. An editorial in the Indian Express on Friday called for cooler heads, saying further escalation would damage India’s reputation as a responsible nation and attractive investment destination, and could rekindle a separatist insurgency on its side of Kashmir.
Officials say India’s new policy is being orchestrated by Ajit Doval, the country’s national security adviser, a former intelligence official renowned for his role in dangerous counter-insurgency missions. In August, after days of cross-LoC firing between India and Pakistan, Doval attended a meeting at the Home Ministry along with the head of the paramilitary Border Security Force (BSF) and a decision was taken to give a free hand to the ground commanders in Jammu, a top security official in the region told Reuters. Until then, the BSF, which guards the Jammu section of the border with Pakistan, had complained that instructions on how to respond to provocations were unclear.
A spokesman for India’s defence ministry did not respond to requests for comments.
Pakistani military leaders say they have been taken aback by the level of aggression of Indian forces over the last week. “India is deliberately putting pressure on Pakistani security forces by opening this new front,” said a senior Pakistani military official posted on the border.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 13th, 2014.
COMMENTS (38)
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I want to ask my indian friends...if you don't want anything to do with Pakistan then what are you doing reading pakistani newspapers and posting hate comments.
Instead why don't we post comments to tell everyone that we can live in peace. Stop hate and give peace a chance.
@Saqi: Let us wish and pray that no one is destroyed and all accept peace, insha'Allah!
@Zahid: Pakistan has developed small atomic bombs for invading Indian army. did you hear news about Pakistani missiles capable of carrying atomic warheads with range of 100 km. More over we as nation are already destroyed and nothing to loose but India has every thing to loose. OK if Pakistan is totally destroyed due to result of atomic war. plenty of other Muslim countries in world but no other Hindu country in world.
@Reddy: Read carefully what I wrote: "Therefore, against a possible heavy onslaught of Indian tanks, mortars, and heavy artillery, what kind of tactical weapons does Pakistan possess, which might be necessary to stop Indian invasion." So Indian invasion means India enters our territory. Therefore, I am not sure if we have the necessary wherewithal to stop Indian invasion. Remember 2002 when Indian forces were poised at Rajasthan border to invade Pakistan and we appeased India but also prepared to resist Indian invasion and it worked. Maybe appeasement won't work under Modi.?
India always tries to boast its power in terms of what Pakistan has at its disposal. But inside it clearly knows how weak it is in front of the Chinese army. And it is globally known how China supports Pakistan as a move in maintaining its regional dominance. Let's suppose that me modi does do what he says about the neighbours Pakistan n china will it improve the conditions of India in Any way? Will it help to reduce inflation , curruption n terrorism. No it won't, today need india n Indians need more internal reforms in country than to go on an unnecessary war
Pulling the tail of a sleeping tiger is dangerous - the lesson is learnt by Pakistan.
What else can we expect from a aggressive personality and what ever is happening was the ultimate gesture that after Modi will come into power he will try to dominate the regional politics by his aggressive and insane policies. The very hatred of Modi for Pakistan and Muslims have been observed at several occasions and this again is the clear depiction that how is setting a stage for waging a war against its neighbor.
@Nuclear Pakistan: If you start it, we will end it.
Politicians like Modi only come in Government to satisfy their own personal ambitions with no sense of statecraft. “The prime minister’s office has instructed us to ensure that Pakistan suffers deep and heavy losses.” Let us all remind Modi and his PM office that they are taking about nuclear capable Pakistan.
@Imran Ahsan Mirza: brilliant response and need appreciation
@Imran Ahsan Mirza: Blilliant response from a mature and a sane pakistani lady
@Mesha and who exactly told you we want to invade pakistan? India is quiet happy without the blowing up in markets that occur there daily. We are just not interested in taking your land or extra burden of population and debt your country has. But if someone does misadventure to shift focus from dharna to loc we will fire back.
A joke on What App-
Indian Army Chief - Sir, Pakistan military is like a dog's tail which can't be straightened.
Modi- General Im not Manmohan Singh, just cut it off and show it to me tomorrow.
What a bunch of lies the pakistani govt and pakistan army are fooling its people,they only report only civilian death to get attention but dont report the level of severe damage that has been caused to pakistan army and it posts and other infrastructure which was the main reason that pakistan army was surprised and panicked by India change of stance and they could not believe that their effort to infiltrate terrorists into India and provoking India could backfire in such an intense and severe way,actually around 30-35 or more number of pakistan rangers and pakistan army personal were also killed as per Indian intelligence source and that the Pakistani army dont want their people to know it and also dont want their media to publish it fearing loss to its reputation but fact is fact.
What Modi trying to project by addressing in hawkish manner about old habits won’t be tolerated? This new government in India has done nothing except setting a stage for war. These very aggressive speeches played a pivotal role in making Modi win. In other words, Indians are been fooled that India has the ultimate power to attack on any country but not Pakistan. It is a nuclear weapon state that India has to think many times before launching any single move of aggression.
Who is suffering in the most the civilian people? PM Modi intentions towards Pakistan were very clear if we gather up its electoral speeches? They simply reflect an extreme aggressive approach towards Pakistan. He is actually the one who himself backing up of these border violations. This is not at all a wise trait of any leader of the world who alleged for being violating of LOC and threatened sovereignty of nation states.
@Realist: After that, Pakistan will become history.
@lol: We are equally crazy. We will go down, but will take you down with us.
@Zahid: " it has been able to develop tactical weapons that it could use on the battle field"
if this is the level of understanding or knowldege on tactical nuclear weapons on the other side of the border,we have nothing to fear ....your battle field nuclear weapons are not meant to use on a foreign soil but you are allowed use them on your own soil if your country is invaded by foreign forces like OBL ride or a kargil like scenario from our side ....
Modi does not need "bravado". He has enough resources to accomplish his goals vis-a-vis Pakistan. 'Bravado' fits Pakistan better.
@Zahid:
Pakistan has first use of Nuclear weapons doctrine, which means the day Indian forces are within reach of a major or minor city, nukes will fly.
As Albright rightly said, Pakistan is a global migraine. People in India wrongly feel that India/Pakistan partition should not have happened. But good that it happened, at least Indians can focus, work hard and progress. Pakistan will be the same for ever, even if they get Kashmir, next they will ask Punjab, Delhi and what not. And to achieve that they will send terrorist to India and other parts of the world.
Instability of Pakistan is an important plank of international policy to discredit and disarm Pakistan. This means the quadruple objectives of economic degradation, downsizing of armed forces, elimination of pro Kashmir groups and nukes. Though economic degradation is underway, Pakistan Army stands as an obstacle in the way of other three.
Pakistan Army have always erred and showed the way. Remember Pakistan would respond with full force to any adventure from across the border.
There are times Western world believed all the lies of Pakistan but after 9/11, Kargil and Pakistan duplicity in war on terror has made Pakistan a most untrustable nation. Today no body in the world will believe Pakistan's lies, only choice left for Pakistan is blackmailing world by telling we will use nuclear weapons.
Why it is so that always Pakistani Commanders are taken aback. Aren't they thorough in analysis and their assessment of the prevailing situation. The same thing happened in Kargil, in aftermath it was said that our military commanders were not expecting such a huge response from India. As a democratic country , some body must ask that why it is so, why our military commanders involve themselves with ventures they cannot handle.
The Army of Pakistan must have such a reputation that enemy must think twice before venturing in such a situation and if this time it was so, a massive answer must had been given. Now India has broken the myth and Modi is calling the bluff.
Any aggression from Pakistan will be met with a huge unaffordable cost for Pakistan. Just accept LOC/LAC as the border and just live in peace.
I do not buy into conspiracy theories, however both sides should back off for the sake of genuine peace. As a Pakistani I do not trust Pakistani military views on Kashmir, I know them well. The only solution for Kashmir is a political solution by opening borders and giving liberty to its people to move across freely. Pakistan has no money to offer to Kashmir now or in near future and thus, its progress cannot be guaranteed by Pakistan, it is just the opposite position for India. The Pakistani governance mechanisms are in a state of spiralling despair and agonising failures on all fronts. Nawaz Sharif has slept for so long on the defence and foreign policy issues, he should wake up and show some leadership similar to the days of Vajpai's visit. Media should be given access to front lines and Pakistan should clarify its position and must not get information from military sources alone.
“This is what we feared would happen if Modi came to power,” said Ikram Sehgal. Then why didn't you mend your ways the moment the new government came in power? Why did you dare to provoke the Indians? If you throw stones at a tiger, sooner or later you are going to get mauled and you should know that. What a silly statement.
The article does not give reasons for firing by India. But thanks, it is giving us confidence that new indian is doing right things
Pakistan must understand that there is a new government in place in India and the old style provocation won't work. Things will get more interesting on all the three fronts which includes Afghanistan, Iran and India for Pakistan.
Case of he says, she says. Can any smart Pakistani give better reason on why would India start this adventure ?
India wants peace, but not the peace of graveyard for its civilians. When Pakistan targets Indian civilians, India will defend its land and its civilians.
1) the days when Pakistan could decide when to start problems on LOC and when to end them have gone. It can still start the firing as it did this time but it is India which decide when to end it. India will not succumb to violence, a threat of internationalisation and the always implied threat that if things escalate, it could become a nuclear war. India of course has a no first use policy and Pakistani generals are no so illogical as to use nuclear power against India.
2) If Pakistan's leaders say they are taken aback by scale of response, is it bravado? Bravado means false claims that you cannot follow through on . Example of bravado : 'we will give India a befitting response' and then running to UN like dehaati aurat.
3) you need not quote an anonymous source, you can quote India's defense miister Jaitley who said that India will make Pakistan's adventurism unaffordable.
Hopefully this lesson will ensure peace at least for some time on the LOC and IB as Pakistan army will think twice before targetting our civilians. Of course neither 1971 nor even Kargill (which happened after Kargill when Pakistan had become an atomi taaqat - have taught any lasting lessons to Pakistan. That is unfortunate for both India and Pakistan and the brave soldiers and innocent soldiers on either side.
Dear Modi, would you love to see subcontinent turn into Iraq? Cuz India will be destroyed too if Pakistan were to be. If yes to war then go ahead bomb us as if Pak army is sitting with water guns. You're dealing with people who aren't afraid of death, good luck :)
Funny, in the past the Pak border guards had shooting practice firing across the border into India whenever they liked to and then stopped when they got tired of it!! By the looks of it the Indian guards too have now been given permission for some shooting practice of their own!!
My dear Abdullah, I am here. The game is up.
Modi talks about 1000 mortars raining bombs in Pakistan and Pakistan takes it easy. Okay, appeasement but for how long. India is six times more heavily armed than Pakistan and there is a severe conventional imbalance. What steps have Pakistan taken to redress it? Over reliance on nuclear weapons won't work as the next India-Pakistan war is likely to stop before there is a nuclear exchange and that is good. But Pakistan is likely to lose heavily unless it has been able to develop tactical weapons that it could use on the battle field. Since if war commences now or in the near future, India would like to teach Pakistan a lesson it never forgets, as per the stance of Indian PM. Therefore, against a possible heavy onslaught of Indian tanks, mortars, and heavy artillery, what kind of tactical weapons does Pakistan possess, which might be necessary to stop Indian invasion.