The Bilateral Security Agreement to which both candidates had given their ascent will assure the continued commitment of Washington and Western countries for economic and political support. International support to Afghanistan is vital, but its future depends primarily on how the two leaders, Ghani and Abdullah, handle the main transitions — political, security, economic and administrative. Each of these transitions pose formidable challenges and are interlinked. There is no doubt that the two leaders have the requisite credentials in terms of experience, educational background and international exposure to lead the country. Ghani served as finance minister in Hamid Karzai’s government and interestingly, while serving in the World Bank, was responsible for Pakistan and knows our country and many of its leaders. Abdullah is a former foreign minister and a highly experienced politician. Both have broad support bases, although they are sharply divided: President Ghani enjoys support among the Pakhtuns while Abdullah is favoured by the Tajiks. Judicious representation of the main ethnic groups in the power structure is absolutely necessary for building political stability. For a successful transition, these two leaders and their respective team of politicians will have to set aside past rivalries and work for a higher purpose. Failure to work in unison will reverse the gains made so far and allow the Taliban and the warlords to reassert themselves with catastrophic results. Internal dissension will also slow down international support.
The ability of the Afghan National Army (ANA) to gel as a cohesive entity that is above ethnic and tribal divisions and has the professional competence of holding against the Taliban is crucial. Any fracture in its ranks could lead to formation of several militias joining different warring factions. As reports indicate, the ANA has made modest progress and given a good account of its performance in some recent combat engagements. But there were occasions when it suffered heavy casualties and had to abandon its posts. A major weakness is the high percentage of illiteracy, lack of education in the army ranks and inadequate period of training of recruits. To counter the Taliban offensive, the ANA would need continued US air and surveillance support for a few years. Good military-to- military relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, based on mutuality of interests, will be a key factor in combating militants and stabilising the border. Regrettably, military-to-military relations have been coloured by mutual distrust and frequent border violations. There is a common perception in Pakistan that the Afghan Army is close to India. A large number of Afghan military officers and members of other ranks have been trained in India and are influenced by the Indian thinking. It is not surprising that the psyche that pervades between India and Pakistan is reflected in the behaviour of army officers of Afghanistan towards Pakistan. Our military’s support to the Taliban in the past has been a major source of friction and a cause of distrust between the two armies. There were other contributing factors in degrading Pak-Afghan relations.
Karzai was bitter with the US because he believed it opposed his election in 2009. Besides, he aspired not to go down as a protege of the US but as a nationalist who stood against all foreign intervention, including any coming from Pakistan. The reality, however, was different. He was brought into power by full US support and it was Washington’s sustained support that kept him going. Karzai’s salvos directed against Pakistan were motivated by multiple overlapping considerations. He tried to convey that he stood up to Pakistan but was genuinely hurt with our security establishment’s tacit support of the Taliban, the Haqqani network and other militant groups that were using safe sanctuaries in the tribal belt for launching attacks in Afghanistan. This eventually led to his government hosting our enemies along the eastern provinces, foremost being the TTP leader, Fazlullah, with his band of terrorists. Apparently, this had support of India as the Haqqani group was also alleged to be responsible for attacks targeting Indians, especially the Indian embassy attack in 2009. The US, too, remained deliberately indifferent to Fazlullah’s presence as his guns were directed at Pakistan and not on Afghanistan.
Second, it was considered a good tactic by Karzai to indulge in Pakistan bashing. In this way, he conveniently deflected criticism of his own shortcomings. Not the least, this was also a message that attempted to build for him a nationalist image and earn him a place in history. All this will have to change now if genuine cooperation in fighting insurgency on both sides of the border and building bridges between the two countries is to be achieved.
Afghanistan does not have a viable economy. The US and Nato allies currently finance its large security force numbering nearly three million. About 90 per cent of the Afghan budget is foreign sourced. Major restructuring will have to be undertaken to make it compatible with the requirements of globalisation. The new president is eminently suited to bring about an economic transformation, provided political and security conditions remain favourable. Afghanistan is known to have huge reservoirs of coal and precious minerals. For their exploitation, foreign technology and investment is a prerequisite and it would be forthcoming, provided there is peace.
The new leadership will also be looking at finding a peaceful way out with the Taliban and will expect support from Pakistan. If reconciliation efforts succeed, it will be in Pakistan’s interest because a blowback from a civil war or the unravelling of authority in adjoining provinces of Afghanistan will severely complicate its own counter-insurgency operations.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 1st, 2014.
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COMMENTS (14)
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@Dr Qaisar Rashid: But the durand line is drawn in the space over the land and the mountains and not on land simply to indicate the hegemonic divide between the British colonialist and the Amir of Afghanistan. The right thing would be for the Afghans to take back their old winter capital Peshawar and the complete triangle of Pashto speaking population down through to Baluchistan and thus have the access to warm waters.
Rex Minor
@Dr Qaisar Rashid: Have you ever heard of nitpickers?Now you know them, besides afghanistan faces no other challenge than to rid itself of foreigners intervention both direct or indirect. Pakistan faces a challenge since Afghanistan does not recognise Durand line as the border for Pakis tan which its army is unilateraly integrating it into its territory. Take your time.
Rex Minor
@Gp65 and @ Factcheck I think it must be a pen slip to write 3 million instead of 3 lac (300000). However, this was not the central point of the article. The objective of the readers should not be to find faults in a write-up but to see what point is being made. You both should have commented on the challenges being faced by Afghanistan. I think that the writer, who is an experienced writer, has summarised the challenges in a beautiful way. If you want to further discuss the issue. I will be back soon. Come to the point of challenges. Regards,
@Rux Manure: Still laughing rolling on the ground. If there are such deposits the American would be digging them out. Not leaving them for the Chinese on a platter. And 'yanks'? Who uses that term? They used 'yanks' in the last century! Or anyone over 90 years. There is nothing there. Rocky/barren ground...Sure, they can use Afghanistan as a toxic waste dumping ground for the World. The Afghans,...they will make some dimes and nickles. Er..Reichsmark? ...Deutschemark?
@Peshawar wala:
You have a big mouth but try to use your brain for a change. Afghanistan has the largest copper reserves of the world and the Chinese are waiting impatiently to start excavation as soon as the yanks leave. this will make Afghans living not far from your ancient city, the richest in the region. @FactCheck: The General mistyped the numbers, why make a meal of it. GP65 has already pointed out the mistype.
Rex Minor
Larget standing armies:
1) China- 2, 285,000
2) US - 1,429,995
3) India- 1,106,000
4) N. Korea- 1,106,000
5) Russia- 1,027,000
6) S. Korea- 687,000
7) Pakistan- 617,000
Afghanistan- 306,800
If ANA have a strength of 3 million, ANA will be the largest force in the world funded by US and its allies.
Afghan Population is 31,108,077 (2013 est) and if the ANA is 3 million then 10% of the population is in the ANA.
People and papers should not publish articles without checking facts. A simple google search would give you facts in minutes.
Balanced accurate article.
When the US-NATO troops withdraw from Afghanistan, Pakistan loses their only one trump card which they have holding successfully for the last decade.
NATO route was not only a great bargaining tool, but also a super monetization opportunity. How Pak is going to find the next monetization model to replace the NATO route ? This is the problem General should worry about.
Reg the challenges of Afghanistan, let them find a way out or let them stew in their own juice.
@Rux Manure: Everyone knows you hate Pakistan. Even though you traveled to Germany from FATA on a Pakistani passport. Be thankful Pakhtuns? What are they? If you mean Pathans? They have been around. Nobody wants that rocky/barren piece of real estate. There is nothing there. Even Papuan/ New Guineans have become more advanced than you know who. In just a matter of years too.
I witonder if Et mod will allow my comments for the former general? What a waste of effort for a former military General to speculate about Afghanistan future which has throughout history kept its independence while his country was occupied by the Brits and became its colony for almost two centuries . Abdullah plus is an eye specialist and not an experienced politician but have Pakhtun and Tajik parents. Is this enoughto to run a country especially when the vote count audit was also is also not in his favour The Afghans respect all independent Nations and India happens to be one of them. It is too bad but the facts are that Pakistan is not an independent country and its former military man, caved in when threatened by a junior American military man in his own residence.The General should avoid cacaphony and pettyfogging in his article and should not exeggerate Pakistan involvement in support of specific Taliban groups. These groups support Pakistan intelligence and not the other ay around. Mullah Omar will find peace with Afghan new President as soon as the foreign forces leave Afghan soil.
Rex Minor.
Even India does not have armed force of 3 million and you are saying Afghanistan has it? Or did you mean 300,000? Basic fact check would be good you know.
Separately , you acknowledge Pakistan's role in giving safe haven to Afghan Taliban and Haqqanis who attacked Afghanistan. Why are you so surprised and socked that no major effort to kick out Fazlullah is being made by Afghanistan? Why do you drag India into that equation! How will Fazlullah getting safe haven in Afghanistan, address India's pain point of having its embassy attacked by actors from Pakistan both in 2009 and 2014?
Does Pakistan have a viable economy? It is also financed and floated by US money. At least Afghanistan has smaller population and lesser problems. Without US money where will be Pakistan?