However, Modi changed his mind on this issue, apparently after a single briefing from the system’s architect, Nandan Nilekani, the Infosys billionaire who has quit industry and turned to social work.
I think this reversal was an excellent thing, both for the fact that it kept a good project going and the idea that Modi was pragmatic and supple enough to change his stated position. Governing complex nations requires that one bend a little on principles every now and then. Modi knows this and his record in Gujarat on growth and distribution is a reflection of this pragmatism.
But I have always felt that when it comes to Pakistan, it would be different. The strong sentiment that Modi displayed against our western neighbour during the campaign was deeply felt and irreversible. A dislike, perhaps, the real word is hatred, of Pakistan is not just a part of Modi’s rhetoric or campaign posturing. It is a part of his world view.
The cancelling of the foreign-secretary level talks by India is an aspect of that. It relieves Modi from engaging on friendly terms with a subject that he doesn’t really want to. We should expect that while the flexible Modi will appear again and perhaps often, on other foreign policy issues, including Bangladesh, he will remain unyielding where Pakistan is concerned.
Reports say that the prime minister personally made the decision to pull out of the talks, going over the head of foreign minister Sushma Swaraj. I don’t know if this is true, but it would not be surprising to me if it were. It fits both Modi’s go-it-alone style and his ideology, to have personally-driven policy in this matter.
Though most Indian newspapers supported Modi on pulling out of talks, I think it is a mistake. It is the first major mistake Modi made since coming to power. The decision has been taken on the basis of emotion and irritation.
Not much will come out of it, and India will likely have to reverse its decision unless we expect Pakistan to stop talking to the Hurriyat, which it won’t. Deciding to pull out has given us the temporary illusion of being in charge. However, if Pakistan does not bend on this, then again the pressure to take a decision on resumption will be on India.
The world will not be supportive of India on this move, particularly if tensions rise again. It is difficult to justify the decision Modi took purely on the basis of the background.
A report in The Indian Express captured this aspect perfectly: “Frankly, I can’t see much sense in making a meeting with the Hurriyat a touchstone for India-Pakistan relations,” analyst Ajai Sahni of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi was quoted as saying, “it’s almost as if the government is saying we can live with Pakistan shooting our troops at the Line of Control, but having tea with secessionists — that’s unforgivable”.
We will have to wait to see which country, whether Pakistan or India, will retreat, but like I said, I don’t think Modi is particularly interested in talking to Pakistan. This means that he has to sacrifice the other aspects of our relationship, meaning trade and transit and such things, which are all part of the larger dialogue with Pakistan.
The question is whether he will bring this unbending approach to other sectors, for instance education, genetically modified foods and such things that interest the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. My guess is that in these things he will not be uncompromising, and that is a good thing. It is on Pakistan that his instinct takes over and unfortunately for us, it is the one area where there is always potential for danger, given the history. It would have been more prudent for Modi to have kept the dialogue going.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 24th, 2014.
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Excellent read, one that must be shared and promoted thru electronic media.
Modi will never be sincere with muslims in his own country, why should he be sincere or even interested in Pakistan. I am glad he called off the talks as they are useless. Let him concentrate on further militarisation of Indian Occupied Kashmir and buy their loyalty at gunpoint. Let him spend billions to maintain military strength in the Himalayas thll he chokes.
He is a RSS Hindutva hatemonger, he will never put Kashmiri interest first. If it was to him he would grab their land for resources and deport all Kashmiri muslims to Pakistan.
@ask :
One is not interested in comparing India to Pakistan but for those who feel that Pakistan is Equal to India. Chahbahar : Is not only for Transit to the CARs via Afghanistan but more importantly to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and even Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. To use Afghanistan it is imperative that Pakistan MUST BECOME A HAVEN OF PEACE & TRANQUILLITY. I would Opine that PAKISTAN WILL NEVER BE AT PEACE WITH INDIA. One can LIVE IN HOPE but ONE WILL DIE IN DESPAIR. India can never be the Equal of China as in addition to being THRICE THE SIZE OF INDIA China is “Blessed” with Far, Far, more Natural Reserves than India with Xinjiang – I believe – has possibly more than 50% of Oil, Natural Gas and other Strategic Reserves of China. Regretfully the Indian Population is nearing the Size of China's Population. One is not proud of Nehruvian Policies and Theories, especially in the field of Economic Development but hopefully we now have a ray of hope of becoming LIKE China but NEVER EQUAL TO CHINA! Without being obsessed with Pakistan it must be remembered that at Independence Pakistan was much better off Economically as from August 1947 to August Pakistan’s Rupee was 3.31 to the US Dollar whereas the Indian Rupee was 4.76 to the US Dollar. However in 1966 India Devalued the Rupee to 7.5 to the US Dollar whereas the Pakistan Rupee was devalued in August 1955 to 4.76 to the US Dollar at which level it remained until April 1972! ..Now it is a different story. .. P. S. A few of my replies in answer to Gp65 and other have not been POSTED BY THE POWERS that be. . Cheers
@ask: The fact that China started reforming in 1979 and India in 1991 is well known. Indians acknowledge China's success and demand from their politicians better policies. They came for a while and then there was stagnation. That is what I am referring to.
If Afghanistan is being stable is the barrier o India using Chabahar port to access Central asian countries, ghe same barrier would also apply to using Pakistan for transit,
I think you are the one that is missing the point and stuck in India Pakistan comparison. Aakar Patel said that India needs Pakistan for increase in trade and for transit to central Asian countries. Naresh factially challenged both those points with facts.
@Gp65: Your spin apart, @Naresh was quite pathetic in attempting to compare India with Pak. It's a dumb contest. Don't guys have any sense of pride? If he is so obsessed with comparing himself with smaller countries let him try out various other Asian countries. What Pakistanis think is not the concern here since that is not the debate. All this tall talk of Chabahar will come to naught unless Afghanistan becomes a haven of peace & tranquility. Please don't tell me some story of "last couple of years" slow growth. "Last couple of Decades" is more likely since China took off ages ago, at least 10 years before PN Rao & MM Singh woke up in 1991..
@ask: The comparison was in direct response to the idea Aakar is floating that India is dependent on Pakistan for its trade. It was thus important to show the relative size of exports of both.
Likewise in transit he made the point tha once the Chabahar port is up and running, India will have a cost effective transit to central asian republics and will not need to depend on Pakistan.
He was partially incorrect though. The gap in trade is much larger as pointed out by @Np and @Thotatum25 India does nit incoude service exports and mports in its trade figures. With a serice export of $150 billion added to $312 mechandize exports, India exports around $462 billion - around 18 times Pakistan's total exports.
Incidentally when you talk about picking someone one's size, no Indian will deny that China has performed better economically than India. In fact Indians were frustrated with the period of low growth in the last couple of years because they are eager to catch up at least with growth rate if not GDP if China and hence through the orior government out. But with 6.5 times the population and 18 times the exports, will Pakistanis admit that India has performed better?
@ahmed41:
"Like I said' is same as "As I Said". "Like I said" is more commonly is used in Americas and "As I said" is commonly usagd in Britain...
@ModiFied: I think you meant to say that Modi will not talk to Pakistan while it continues to talk to Hurriyat leaders because it has come opposite.
@Anjaan: Obviously you did spend time to read Mr. Patel's guesses. I disagree with him most of the time but he is paid by this newspaper to show India and Indian politicians in bad light and he is doing that well and frequently.
Mr. Aakar Patel,
You think world won't be supportive of India if tensions escalate? When was it supportive of India? In 1971 war? Why should India care about world support on what is essentially its national interest?
And besides, which parts of the world are you referring to? OIC will support Pakistan on Kashmir plank, come what may. China will support Pakistan unless there is a direct danger to it in an issue. Leave that out, only remaining country that may weigh in with Pakistan is USA. It will do so, only when it is convenient for it to do so. i.e. till it pulls out of Afghanistan.
India is right to pursue a dialog with Pakistan to resolve Kashmir issue. But, it can't be done unless Pakistan truly wants a negotiated settlement. Pakistan hasn't moved from it's maximalist position of wanting Indian Kashmir. India has moved from its maximalist position of wanting Pakistani Kashmir,and is willing to settle on LOC as border.
How can there be talk when Pakistan won't move from it's maximalist position and keeps supporting terrorists & separatists instead?
@Naresh: The figure of $314 billion as exports refers to only merchandise, you have to add another $130 billion or so for exports of services, i.e., total value of India's exports is around $450 billion.
@Naresh: Aren't you ashamed of comparing Indian figures with Pakistan's? Why not pick someone close to India's size, like China, and discover where you stand? You may be ignorant as to why some in India & Pakistan are keen on promoting trade as part of long term diplomacy. Such ignorance is not your fault; but the way you advertise it makes it so.
@Akhtar Baloch: India does not rely on oil, trade and energy from Pakistan.
Dispute with Pakistan will in no way adversely affect India's ability to buy oil from Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite your efforts to make the issue to be one that concerns the whole ummah.
The sooner Pakistan realizes that there is no such thing as the Ummah (look at what is happening in Syria and Iraq) and relying on it for solving its problems, better it is for Pakistan.
@Naresh: Great post, one would lke to add that India's trade figures Exclude service exports and imports while Pakistan trade figures include both. On a like for like comparison, the difference on trade is even greater.
@Lahore: please listen to Modi's independence day speech. If Indians were unable to accept constructive criticism, that speech would have been widely panned. Instead it was widely praised. Likewise Amir Khan's show Satyamev Jayate was appreciated greatly even though it was in effect a research based sow on prolems in the Indian society with suggestions for how to resolve tose problems. Accepting constructive criticism does not mean that any criticism of a government from a person who has relentlessly criticized Modi should be mindlessly accepted.
People have responded to Akar based on facts and logic. There have been no ad hominem attacks.
@C. Nandkishore: The bulk of your comment was very thoughtful and reasonable? I fail to understand why ou think thattalks with Pakistan are a prerequisite to India being bracketed with China. When Indian growth rates were high people had already started talking about India and China. Once growth rates in India are restored, once more people will start talking Indo-China. In any case people can and do talk about BRICS of which India and China are an important part. BRICS bank is becoming a reality, so India's linkage to China is already underway in one context.
I am very happy that India has pulled out from the talks, which would have been absolutely useless and a total waste of time from Pakistan's perspective. If anything that could have come out of the talks, that would have been beneficial only to India at the cost of Pakistan's interests, as the author mentioned of trade and transit. India would never agree to plebiscite despite claims of being the world's biggest democracy, or to a fair resolution of any dispute, does not matter how minute even that might be. Pakistan would, and should, never abandon our Kashmiri brethren alone just to please the RSS extremist prime minister, no matter what. Kashmiris will eventually get independence from Indian occupation when their time comes. History tells us that time never remains the same and always keeps changing. Modi's this decision of pulling out of talks reminds me of 2002 decision of BJP which only resulted in grand humiliation, no need to mention whose.
I think you have been proven wrong many times in past and you will be proven wrong again.
I have always wondered why this guy is considered "respectable". His analysis is puerile and he changes colours faster than a chameleon. All through the run up to the elections he was pouring vitriol and scorn on Modi, but quickly changed his tune after the results. Now he appears to have discovered Modi's "first major mistake"!
No wonder he has a safe job writing for Pakistani newspapers.
Great analysis. Unfortunately, Modi's RSS/BJP base means he is irrational when the topic comes to Pakistan, Kashmiris, Bangladesh, or Indian Muslims. This is very dangerous for India, as it relies on oil, trade, and energy from Muslim nations to survive.
The sooner India realizes that conflict with Pakistan and Kashmir is bad for India, the sooner we will have some progress. A final solution in which Kashmiris are able to decide their destiny is the only solution, whether it takes 70 years or 100 years. This is inevitable.
We know that nobody reads Aakar Patel in India. The question is: does anybody read him in Pakistan? I think infinitesimally small number reads him in Pakistan, too, so why Tribune still pays him honorarium?
relax, my Indian friends. some constructive criticism never hurts.
Aakar Patel Esq. :You state This means that he has to sacrifice the other aspects of our relationship, meaning trade and transit and such things, which are all part of the larger dialogue with Pakistan. . Sir Ji, India's's Annual Exports are US$ 314.4 Billion which is about 12.5 Times Pakistan's Annual Exports of US$ 25.2 Billion. India's's Annual Imports are US$ 450 Billion which is about 11 Times Pakistan's Annual Exports of US$ 41.7 Billion. India's Population is about Six and a Half Times that of Pakistan and India's Economy is about Nine to Times as compared to the Economy of Pakistan . The Quantum of India's Prospective Trade with Pakistan can be from ZERO to INSIGNIFICANT. Regarding Transit to CARs : With the coming up of the Iranian Port of Chah Bahar India's Trade to CARs will be a loss to Pakistan. . One would want India-Pakistan Trade and Transit but with the PAKISTAN ARMY Indirectly if not Directly calling the shots in Pakistan vis-à-vis Pakistan's relations with India I see very few chances - if any - of India's Trade and Transit facilities with and via Pakistan. . You are welcome to your Opinion! . Mods please post the above as it is important that Interlocutors on this Forum are aware of the Conditions which Prevail in India and Pakistan vis-à-vis the Prospects of India Trade and Transit with and via Pakistan. . Cheers
As usual my comment has not be printed. So here I go again.
Lets hope its the last w.r.t. Pakistan.
Pakistan wants to be equated to India in the world forums. For this it will do anything to irritate India. It wants India to over react so that the world will notice and bracket India and Pakistan - IndoPak. At present it is Afpak. Pakistan desperately wants to get out of this Afpak word.
India wants to be bracketed with China. But the world will not bracket India with Pakistan and China simultaneously.
So India has to choose between Indopak and Indochina. If it wants to be bracketed with China then it has to show that everything is normal between India and Pakistan. Talks are regularly held, trade is increasing, normal smuggling, leaders meet at UN, etc.
That is why India did not overreact after Kargil, Parliament attack and Mumbai. As a result the world shifted from Indopak to Afpak.
Whats in a name? Plenty. Saudi Arabia has spent millions of dollars and diplomatic pressure to change the name from Persian Gulf to Arabian Gulf.
The fact is Indians are not as dumb as the author believes and have the ability to see through rhetoric. For instance with the exception of Anna Hazare's apolitical grassroots movement which received citizen support, there was hardly any murmur in the run up to the 2014 elections, yet the people got together and showed their disapproval of Congress' incompetence, high handedness, dirty tricks and unfettered corruption by handing them their lowest number of seats ever.
Regarding Aadhar, the fact is that BJP had initiated the National Population Register during Vajpayee's term which the Congress promptly demolished to come up with Aadhar. I doubt the author ever wrote about Congress immaturity in reinventing the wheel, whereas now that Modi has decided to use the data collected by the UIDAI, the author wants everyone to believe that Modi has given a ringing endorsement for Aadhar which he has not.
People like the author are ambivalent when the BJP is on the receiving end, but start to groan about victimization when the same treatment is meted out to the Congress.
For instance, Congress never once granted Leader of Opposition role to any party whenever it swept the polls, but now it feels it has a birthright for this role.
When UPA-I came to power, its first act was to get rid of BJP appointed governors, but now it moans about the dismissal of its own governors like Shiela Dikshit who has been appointed solely to receive immunity from the CWG scam.
@Author ........ he (Modi) will remain unyielding where Pakistan is concerned. I think you got it wrong. So far the only message that Modi has sent is that he will remain unyielding where Kashmir is concerned, and that is consistent with all previous Indian governments too. You are unnecessarily extrapolating it to include everything concerning Pakistan. Modi has repeatedly said that he wants to work toward development of all SAARC countries, including Pakistan. What makes you believe that he is unwilling to talk about trade, transit and other things? If history is any indication, it is Pakistan that is indifferent to these matters. Also it is sad that you chose to write only one part of the story. You seem to think that no mistake has been committed by the other side. As it is, I find enough writers in these columns with one-sided opinions. You needn't join them.
Umm.. so Mr. Modi made the "mistake" of calling "off" the talks because (despite differences over Kashmir) the "larger dialogue encompassing trade and transit" would be affected???? Really Mr. Patel you have made me laugh enough for the day...LOL. Many thanks for that. ... Trade and transit ... that too viz-a-viz Pakistan .... (still can't stop laughing) ...:-))
"-----We will have to wait to see which country, whether Pakistan or India, will retreat, but like I said, I don’t think Modi is particularly interested in talking to Pakistan.----"
' As I said, not ' , not " like I said", please.
Mr. Patel, what you perceive as mistake, may actually be a very good move. First, it made very clear to Pakistan that they can't talk to separatists as business as usual. Second, it pretty much punished the Hurriyat to act as stooges of Pakistan. Now, if Pakistan want to ever talk on this subject in future, it has to talk directly to GoI instead of first going to Hurriyat which does not even represents Kashmiris. Hurriyat represent Kashmir as much as JI represents Pakistan. India made very clear to Pakistan that on its "dispute" on Kashmir, there is only one party which represents Kashmir and that is India. The next move from India would be to discuss just PoK.
What a pathetic analysis. No wonder most Indians are loosing faith in these armchair analysis. Modi government will never talk to Pakistan till Pakistan holds meetings with Hurriyat leaders. Indian will never forgive Modi if he does not handle Pakistan with firm hand. Opinion of people like this author does not count even remotely in India.
You are entitled to all your guesses, listed in this article ... but who is interested to spend time to read your guesses Mr Aakar Patel ... ? ... and if you look at results of the polls, out just yesterday, an overwhelming majority of Indians are happy with the performance of Modi Govt. in its first 100 days.
After constantly writing about nothing but Modi's mistakes, now you talk about his first major mistake? WOW!
Anyway there was no principle involved in Aadhar. Yes NDA had opposed it. Modi listened to Nilekani with an open mind and changed his mind.
You seem to think that Pakistan will nt agree to stop talking o Hurriyat - so what option would India be left with. Well I would like to make 2 poits
Talks with Pakistan are not complsory. The notion that you either have peace talks or nuclear war as justification to continue talks no matter what is silly. You can choose indifference and retaliate to Pakistani provocations appropriately without iniiating anything.
Secondly, India would find talking o Hurriyat in India absolutely unacceptable but maynot be as mushc against Hurriyat going to Pakistan. That is similar to Dalai Lama even being invited to attend Modi's swearing in ceremony but if Indian embassy in Beijing did that, it would be intolerable.