As in other instances where large numbers of civilians have been killed the Taliban have been quick to distance themselves from the blast, though it is difficult to see which other organisation has the capacity to mount a strike like this. With Western forces moving towards their exit at the end of this year, the Taliban are seemingly testing indigenous Afghan forces, which look as if they are going to be struggling to keep on top of the insurgency once the Western muscle — and the intelligence and logistical support to say nothing of air assets — is gone. It is the foreign forces that cleared and then held the roads across the country, often at dreadful cost to themselves. This most recent attack might have been on another planet as far as the politicians in Kabul were concerned, as they thrashed out the details of how to purify the sullied vote for the presidency. There may be other probing attacks by the Taliban as the year advances and they apply pressure to any weak points — and there are many — in the forces now ranged against them. They already run defacto parallel governments in the south and east of the country, the old Pakhtun strongholds harking back to the days of the civil war. There is a sense that Afghanistan is at the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 17th, 2014.
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