In Pakistan’s recent history of counter-insurgency operations, North Waziristan, the ‘epicentre of jihad’, probably presents the most serious military challenge so far. This is because of the presence of TTP and its battle-hardened foreign militant allies — Uzbeks, Chechens, etcetera, and the rugged terrain. Success in this operation would be critical for reversing the tide against the TTP and other militant groups. There is reason for hope as the military leadership with the wisdom of hindsight and experience gained in operations in Swat and South Waziristan would have meticulously planned for this operation. Of course, they would not merely replicate those operations but improve upon them by drawing on the lessons learnt. Like all professional armies, the Pakistan military, too, builds its operational capacity by training and equipping troops and frequently exercising them in the field. It would, however, be unwise not to consider that the TTP and its allies, too, would have gained from years of fighting in the Pakistan- Afghanistan theatre of operations and are relatively far more skillful in the art of asymmetric warfare.
From the filtered news emanating from Waziristan, it appears that our troops after having systematically sanitised and encircled the cities Miranshah and Mirali have got things well under control and according to plan. It will be the military’s aim to separate the militants from the population both physically and psychologically.
There was justifiable criticism of the federal government for its poor management of evacuation of the civilian population. The administration showed gross indifference in handling the internally displaced persons (IDPs). Majority of the families faced enormous difficulties due to shortage of transport, absence of basic amenities and travelling on narrow and broken roads, although the army had planned the move in a phased manner — with those closer to the settled areas leaving first and others follow in that sequence. The army has also established check posts to register the entry of the IDPs.
Once the people have been evacuated, then the ground operation would commence. All those who stay back will be considered hostile to the state and will be dealt with accordingly, unless they raise the white flag and surrender. Armoured tanks are being used not in the classic role but to supplement direct firepower and to provide cover to the infantry because tank guns have a long range and use higher energy ammunitions. Similarly, gunship helicopters are providing aerial fire support. Meanwhile, the air force is targeting the militant hideouts with precision weapons to eliminate their leadership, destroying infrastructure and weakening their overall capability. It is expected that the operation will cause maximum attrition to the militants.
Islamabad realises the salience of the internal-external nexus and how the Afghan-Pakistan situation is intertwined. It has been demanding that especially when the Pakistan military is conducting its operations, that Afghanistan should cooperate by strengthening its border security. Unfortunately, this may not be possible as the Afghan Army only mans border posts and its military does not have the capacity or the strategy to stop militants from crossing the border into Afghanistan.
The military leadership has kept Nawaz Sharif fully in the loop and in complete confidence. All decisions that are being taken are with the concurrence of the civilian leadership because political ownership is vital for the success of the operation. Nawaz Sharif’s main task should be to mobilise the nation and lead from the front, in which he has shown scant interest or ability. The prime minister should be more focused on the insurgency and military operations. A leader’s primary task is to mobilise the country’s capacity to provide resources necessary to create military power to defeat the insurgency. Semantics and symbols are very important and the prime minister should acknowledge and appreciate especially the great hardships and sacrifices that Uthmanzai and other tribes have made in this campaign. The country should stand with them and other IDPs, in their hour of trial and there should be national support for the cause. Elite cohesion, in the form of galvanising all major segments of society and gaining support of political parties, is also missing.
The policy of the government to deliberately not seek any foreign assistance in fighting militants has its merit, especially when Pakistan has a history of being a client state during the Cold War. Counter-insurgency and counterterrorist operations evince maximum public support when people see for themselves that there is no foreign involvement or agenda. For similar reasons, the Pakistan military is not seeking foreign assistance in the field of surveillance and reconnaissance and relying on its own resources.
The other very serious challenge facing the federal and provincial governments is the question of managing the influx of internally displaced persons. The maximum burden is falling on K-P, which is already host to thousands of Afghan refugees. Already as many as 400,000 refugees have moved out of North Waziristan. Trying to provide them temporary accommodation is the government’s responsibility. But as tradition among the tribes goes, they avoid living in tents and prefer to stay with relatives or in houses. The government should make them stay in school buildings during summer vacations and utilise unused government buildings where available for this purpose. It is important that some basic medical facility is provided near the lodges of the IDPs.
Foreign donors like the UNHCR and others can provide assistance by opening their relief centres at Kushal Khan Bridge in Kohat or Darya Khan Bridge, and Pakistani welfare organisations can work closer, across the Indus, because at this time it will be in the interest of national solidarity to give an impression that this war has the wholehearted support of the people and of reputed international aid organisations.
One important prerequisite for winning the hearts and minds of people in the fight against militants is the projection of a strong narrative. It is surprising that the government has paid scant attention to it and has been mostly responding reactively to the TTP’s very subtle propaganda. The private electronic media, too, needs to have its priorities right.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 25th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (29)
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"The policy of the government to deliberately not seek any foreign assistance in fighting militants has its merit, especially when Pakistan has a history of being a client state during the Cold War." Yes! and so important to acknowledge.
Oh boy, so far i got 27 recommendations, i think mostly from pakistanis. Obviously, sarcasm is not a strong suit of the innocent simple-minded pakistani, unlike cunning banias.
@shiraz: You assume that everyone criticizing the operation is Indian. Well Ch. Allah Daad is a regular commentator here and is known to be Pakistani. Also perhaps you have not noticed that until ghe last moment Imran Khan was saying that an operation would be suicidal. That many Pakistanis were angry instead of happy when Jakeemullah was killed by a drone with the JI chief going so far to call him a shaheed.
So learn to recognize that the support for the operation may not be as widespread as you hope and stop assuming that everyone who disagrees with you is an Indian.
By the way, I am an Indian and I feel high time this operation was performed.
@ Anjaan Did we create or 'nourish' the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan? Where did these bloodthirsty terrorists come from?
Obviously, the General is fully supporting the Pakistan military, and this may well be the correct path. Certainly, some comments appear to agree with him. However, due to simplistic reporting I am experiencing a lack of knowledge in regard to the TTP, their historical background, what they really want, why they are confronting the military, if in fact they are, why do they attack targets such as Karachi, and how did the whole thing start? So far there have been negotiations with the Central Government, but little accurate information has disseminated down to the public. Imran Khan made a valiant attempt to get negotiations started, but all that appears to have fallen flat. All we do know is that reports are coming through that many people are being killed and I think we have to assume that collateral damage and innocent casualties will be high. It is part of standard military warfare. Cr Allah Daad seems to think that the TTP have mostly left so who is being killed? One thing we can be sure of is that the winners, if there are any, will be the heroes, and the losers will be the villains, but we may have to wait a long time for a smattering of the truth to emerge. In the meantime the North Waziristan non-combatants have my sympathy
what about the post war polices do you think the government who seems scant regarding current belligerent army operation, would able to synthesis any permanent policy to keep those foreign and local elements away,this operation would prove futile if our institutes doesn't come on the same page to hit the embryology of this issue.
@shiraz:
Nobody equates TTP with Haqqani - so your comment/observation doesn't make much sense.
@ Huma, The following is from the article by Lt. Colonel Muhammad Ali Ehsan, published on 24th June.
Quote - "If anything, the beginning of the military operation suggests that the army may also have reached a conclusion. It will no more guard and protect the ‘ideological frontier’ which it created and sustained and of which the Taliban were an essential part. A frontier, within which the Taliban once trained, nourished, housed and were even protected. If there ever is going to be a ‘responsible end’ to this war, it will come only if the army has finally decided that it no more recognises and accepts the notion of strategic depth and will meet all ‘ideological crusaders’ with a singular treatment." unquote
It is a clear acknowledgement of the truth that the Pakistani leadership is complicit in allowing Taliban to flourish in Pakistan. The narrative of Pakistan being a victim of American invasion of Afghanistan will not solve any of Pakistan's current problems.
Talat sahib should not forget that theses terrorists came into North waziristan due to the American invasion of Afghanistan which was their previous home.
@shiraz: All reporters on ground say that 90 percent of terrorists had already left North Waziristan and gone to other safe heavens. We are left with half million IDPs who have nothing but hate in their eyes. Truth pinches sir....
The ISIS have created a de facto state from parts of Syria and Iraq. Lets hope the Taliban do not emulate the ISIS and create a Sunni Pakhtun state ripping of parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan .... It is interesting to look at this region 70 odd years ago when the Khudai Khidmatgars (KK) were around. It is so fascinating and inspiring reading the pledges of the KK ... Maybe this is what Pakistan needs again ... a Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan ... and lots Khudai Khidmatgars ... to be at peace with itself and to be at peace withW its neighbors... The KK ideology is the only one which will work against the Taliban ideology... This is the centripetal force that you need ...
This is the only country, were the PM or President has not come on media to take the nation into confidence before any kind of operation...why ? nor the last PPP govt nor this govt.
@Ch. Allah Because of your unconventional name and this particular comment I will have to agree with you this once otherwise .........
Useless article. Just rhetoric and little real analysis. Thats the problem with our generals. They have no sense of cost of war and human element of suffering. Poor Logistics and no element of surprise. Actually no one is motivated enough to actually fight. Its all topi drama.
What is amazing about this operation by pakistani army, using helicopter gunships and f-16 to hit the militants, is that there has been not a single civilian casualty/collateral damage. This shows the professionalism and ability of pak army and air force, bravo! Where as the drones strikes by USA always killed more innocent children and woman instead of militants. This shows the low caliber and low tech nature of the US armed forces compared to the pakistan's.
"..The policy of the government to deliberately not seek any foreign assistance in fighting militants has its merit, ..." The USA has started drone strikes in pakistan without even the pak army or imran khan complaining, what is it if it not foreign/USA assistance?
Author: demands of Afghan government are not met not just due to any capacity issue but due to the safe havens that have been provided o the Quetta Shuta and the Haqqanis for over a decade by Pakistan.
@Abu Qasim: It is an ethnic issue when the IDPs are not being allowed in Punjab and Sind.
In row 3rd: Uzbeks, Chechens, etcetera - for a moment I thought this is some another country. "etcetera" instead of "etc". I am sure Mr Masood has got some spare ink!!
@Abu Qasim: Foreign sounding names don't necessarily make someone important ...get a ...
@Ch. Allah Daad: operations of this magnitude and mobilizations of troops can not be kept secret...and any surprise attack would result in loss of more civilian lives.dear don't be ridiculous in your zest to criticise everything pakistani...It now stinks.
@cautious: when author says ttp he coveted everything...stop showing your false concerns for pakistan and tell clearly that you are not in favor of military operations against ttp so that it can keep playing havoc in Pakistan
@Abu Qasim: pakhtun is in fact an indian troll dear...and so is Pir Roshan...no need to react to their comments.our every effort to stabilise the country will be despised by them.they are hypocrites of highest order.period
A typically mindless litany of all the things that should be done. Where is the assessment of the resources required, and comparison with available resources? Count the costs of the helicopter strikes so far, and the number of militants killed therewith, and tell us how long they can be kept up. Tell us the costs of looking after the IDP's, and how long that can be sustained. And tell us the costs of starting something you cannot finish - how many more militants you would have created. The problem does not require Nawaz Sharif to lead from the front. It requires that the Pak Army desist from doing so.
We are not sure what our Generals want? Such operations do not make any sense. Surprise is the only tactic which brings results against terrorists but before this operation they were provided full opportunity to escape.
How can a war analysis leave out any reference to the Haqqani which are suppose to dominate/control N Waziristan? Pretty clear that the Haqqani aren't part of the "eliminate all terrorist" goal outlined by the govt/military. If so - don't expect any Kudos or help from the Afghan's or rest of the World.
@Pakhtun: Where do you live, my Pakhtun brother? Open your eyes and mind and see the facts. There may be baddies from all over Pakistan gathered in TTP, but they have sanctuaries in tribal areas. These have to be dismantled, for the good of residents of FATA--Pakhtuns-- firstly and the rest of Pakistanis. Grow up. Don't make it an ethnic issue.
General, you seem to be assuming that it was the government that decided to go for the operation at this time. It does not appear that way. The civilian government seems to have accepted the fait accompli of the decision of the real rulers. So, where will the enthusiasm to garner support fro the operation come from?
The operation is started by army only against bad Taliban TTP. That makes the support for operation scant in case of PMLN, PTI & conditional in case of ANP(want operation against all Talibans) & zero support from Afghan Government. Restricting IDPs from entering Punjab & Sindh & inability of the state to provide shelter & food makes it a big miss. Long term consequences for PKP & Federation of Pakistan are not looking good..
I beg Pak army to stop oppressing Pakhtuns....terrorists aren't in our lands...they are in Punjab.
Stop Pakhtun genocide.