No Air Force One yet; optics secured

Is he coming or not?

The question is hanging in Islamabad's diplomatic air like smog before monsoon. No official itinerary. No confirmation. And yet, the entire capital is abuzz with speculation, prepping for the possibility that Donald J Trump may soon be setting foot on Pakistani soil — with a camera crew in tow.

Top media outlets have already done the classic Islamabad two-step: break the story, then retract it. The White House issued a dry-as-toast denial: "No trip scheduled at this time." But with Trump, absence of confirmation often is the confirmation. Denial, after all, is part of the build-up.

Because Trump is not a president in the conventional sense. He is a performer playing a president, on a stage where policy is the prop and optics are the plot.

Let's rewind the show. In June, Trump rolled out the red carpet for Pakistan's Army Chief at the White House — a move so unorthodox under a civilian government that even the most seasoned analysts blinked twice. Then came the hammer on India. First a 25% tariff, and then an additional 25% blow for Delhi's ongoing flirtation with Russian oil. And in the same breath, Trump was touting a "massive oil exploration deal" with Pakistan. He even brokered the Indo-Pak ceasefire in May which he keeps mentioning in his speeches.

This isn't diplomacy. It's pageantry, choreographed to disrupt the old order while staging a new one — centred entirely around Trump.

If the visit materialises, expect theatre. Not handshakes over policy documents, but a fireworks display of "deals" and declarations. A press conference about American companies exploring Pakistan's untapped oil reserves — even if the oil's more rumour than resource.

Trump doesn't care about whether deals are signed or implemented. He cares that the announcement makes a splash.

And he'll certainly paint the Pakistan visit as a strategic masterstroke. "We punished India, and look — Pakistan welcomed us." Expect a trade narrative: crypto, IT, minerals. Expect energy promises. Expect vintage Trump logic, where tariffs on one partner prove that another was the better option all along.

He may even try to revive his peace-broker persona. Cue a speech at a local university, maybe even a soundbite about deserving the Nobel Prize.

But beneath the showmanship, Pakistan must ask: what's really on offer?

This is where we need to be careful. Trump is not pivoting to Pakistan because of shared values or vision. He's pivoting because we're currently the convenient headline. In this moment, Islamabad is not the favourite — it's the foil. And the minute the optics shift, so will the attention.

So how should Pakistan play it?

First, keep it real. If Trump wants a show, let him have it — but behind the curtains, ask for substance. Frame every conversation with facts, feasibility, and follow-up. Announcements are nice. Agreements are better.

Second, use the spotlight. Push for serious engagement in energy, rare earths, Fintech. Pitch ourselves not as a hedge against India, but as a regional hub with value beyond geopolitics.

Third, protect the sovereignty clause. This is not the moment to nod along to every soundbite. Make sure any cooperation is framed around mutual benefit — not someone else's election season optics.

Finally, think beyond Trump. Engage Congress. Reconnect with think tanks. Make the case to American institutions that Pakistan isn't a wildcard, but a partner with a plan. Trump is just one act in the American playbook. We should be speaking to the full cast.

Whether Air Force One lands or not, the stage is already set. The visit may be imaginary, but the impact isn't. For now, Trump has recast Pakistan not as a pariah, but as a possibility. For a transactional politician, that's as close to a compliment as it gets.

And so we wait. For the motorcade that may never arrive. For the handshake that may remain hypothetical. But most of all, for the headlines that — confirmed visit or not — have already shifted the South Asian narrative.

In the end, this is classic Trump. Promise big. Say little. Deliver drama. Whether or not Air Force One touches down at Nur Khan, one thing is clear: Trump's foreign policy was never about alliances. It was always about audience.

And right now, Pakistan is in the spotlight. Let's not miss the cue.