Will Afghanistan follow Iraq’s example?

Since the beginning of the new millennium, Afghanistan and Iraq have shared many commonalities, as far as the so-called war on terror is concerned. We must not forget that one of the main reasons, among the pack of lies, propagated by the Americans to invade Iraq, was the link between the Saddam regime and al Qaeda, which actually was non-existential and beyond the comprehension of any sensible man, simply due to the opposite ideologies and animosity between the two.

Today, what is happening in Iraq is very significant as far as the US drawdown in Afghanistan is concerned, Within hours, out of the 14 Iraqi divisions, we witnessed a complete and total collapse of four of them without any resistance to militants, who are not only the ISIS, as some media are trying to make us believe, otherwise we would not be seeing the pictures of Saddam Hussain being raised in militant-controlled areas. The people on ground are talking about the militants being from four groups that are fighting against the al Maliki government; ISIS, the Saddam group led by his deputy Ezzat Ibrahim, Jaish al-Mujahideen and Ansar al-Islam.

It is interesting to mention that Iraq, unlike Afghanistan, is sitting atop a sea of oil and coupled with its geopolitical location, its neighbours should either fully support its government or at least, not antagonise it. This leads us to the conclusion that the collapse of the Afghan Army might be even worse. The New York Times quoted General John N Bednarek, who heads the office of security cooperation at the United States Embassy in Baghdad, as telling a closed hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee that some of the Iraqi soldiers who guarded the Green Zone in the capital had come to work wearing civilian clothes under their military uniform. The implication was that the troops were prepared to strip to civilian attire and flee if they came under heavy attack.

Moreover an American study concluded recently, that the estimates of 2012 showed that a significant proportion of the Afghan Army was addicted to drugs and in 2013, 65 officials were fired from the security agencies for the same reason. The report added that 95 per cent of the army and police cadets are illiterate and in the last year alone, more than 30,000 fled the army. This picture exhibits the real situation of the Afghan Army and might be the case of all those armies that were ever nurtured by invaders, who imposed their imported military and political solutions onto others.

The US is in a real and deep quagmire and in doldrums nowadays and exhibited its shallow understanding of the region by relying only on Iran to deal with the Iraqi situation while sidelining Turkey and its (mostly Sunni) allies. That led to their marginalisation and desperation, which has now come to the verge of exploding. It’s up to the US now, whether to continue with the same policy or to correct their earlier mistake of supporting al-Maliki with drone attacks. The continuation will no doubt have a snowball effect of hatred of Americans in Iraq. Hence, the US should resort to appeasing the Sunni component and giving more role to Turkey in this affair.

Many in this part of the world, including the liberals, nowadays, have noted America’s inclination towards the Iranian view of events, especially vis-à-vis the Sunni militants. The US and the entire world have denounced the mostly Sunni militant groups fighting Bashar al-Assad, whose only job for over three years has been to kill and displace hundreds and thousands of his own people by destroying entire cities using, reportedly, chemical weapons and ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, the same international community keeps mum when it comes to the Iranian, Iraqi and Afghani sectarian groups, fighting alongside Assad against the militants.

Coming back to the similarities between both Afghanistan and Iraq, we detect the marginalisation of the large Pashtun component from the political dispensation and the presence of the Taliban as a force to be reckoned with, coupled with the many militants in the tribal areas of Pakistan who are waiting for an opportunity like the one in Iraq .

Historically speaking, Syria and Iraq ruled the Muslim ummah for centuries and it would go against the tide of history and geography for them to be run and controlled by the boots of others, be it Western or Iranian power. The coexistence of various components of the region has always been there. The tyrants and their backers in Syria and Iraq must understand that the moment of truth is close and the brave people will never accept to live under the old, collapsed and dead colonial system, The lesson to be learnt is very clear; the Soviet Union was defeated in Afghanistan in the last century and its domino effect will soon reach Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. It’s only a matter of when, not if.

The last important lesson for America and the West at large is that they might win tactically in their so-called war against terrorism but they should understand they are losing strategically, whether on the side of shrinking freedom, or the draining of resources that has made America into a debt-ridden country. Meanwhile, the militants are increasing in strength and power as before.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 15^th, 2014.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.