The writer is Al Jazeera’s bureau chief in Pakistan
Today, what is happening in Iraq is very significant as far as the US drawdown in Afghanistan is concerned, Within hours, out of the 14 Iraqi divisions, we witnessed a complete and total collapse of four of them without any resistance to militants, who are not only the ISIS, as some media are trying to make us believe, otherwise we would not be seeing the pictures of Saddam Hussain being raised in militant-controlled areas. The people on ground are talking about the militants being from four groups that are fighting against the al Maliki government; ISIS, the Saddam group led by his deputy Ezzat Ibrahim, Jaish al-Mujahideen and Ansar al-Islam.
It is interesting to mention that Iraq, unlike Afghanistan, is sitting atop a sea of oil and coupled with its geopolitical location, its neighbours should either fully support its government or at least, not antagonise it. This leads us to the conclusion that the collapse of the Afghan Army might be even worse. The New York Times quoted General John N Bednarek, who heads the office of security cooperation at the United States Embassy in Baghdad, as telling a closed hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee that some of the Iraqi soldiers who guarded the Green Zone in the capital had come to work wearing civilian clothes under their military uniform. The implication was that the troops were prepared to strip to civilian attire and flee if they came under heavy attack.
Moreover an American study concluded recently, that the estimates of 2012 showed that a significant proportion of the Afghan Army was addicted to drugs and in 2013, 65 officials were fired from the security agencies for the same reason. The report added that 95 per cent of the army and police cadets are illiterate and in the last year alone, more than 30,000 fled the army. This picture exhibits the real situation of the Afghan Army and might be the case of all those armies that were ever nurtured by invaders, who imposed their imported military and political solutions onto others.
The US is in a real and deep quagmire and in doldrums nowadays and exhibited its shallow understanding of the region by relying only on Iran to deal with the Iraqi situation while sidelining Turkey and its (mostly Sunni) allies. That led to their marginalisation and desperation, which has now come to the verge of exploding. It’s up to the US now, whether to continue with the same policy or to correct their earlier mistake of supporting al-Maliki with drone attacks. The continuation will no doubt have a snowball effect of hatred of Americans in Iraq. Hence, the US should resort to appeasing the Sunni component and giving more role to Turkey in this affair.
Many in this part of the world, including the liberals, nowadays, have noted America’s inclination towards the Iranian view of events, especially vis-à-vis the Sunni militants. The US and the entire world have denounced the mostly Sunni militant groups fighting Bashar al-Assad, whose only job for over three years has been to kill and displace hundreds and thousands of his own people by destroying entire cities using, reportedly, chemical weapons and ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, the same international community keeps mum when it comes to the Iranian, Iraqi and Afghani sectarian groups, fighting alongside Assad against the militants.
Coming back to the similarities between both Afghanistan and Iraq, we detect the marginalisation of the large Pashtun component from the political dispensation and the presence of the Taliban as a force to be reckoned with, coupled with the many militants in the tribal areas of Pakistan who are waiting for an opportunity like the one in Iraq .
Historically speaking, Syria and Iraq ruled the Muslim ummah for centuries and it would go against the tide of history and geography for them to be run and controlled by the boots of others, be it Western or Iranian power. The coexistence of various components of the region has always been there. The tyrants and their backers in Syria and Iraq must understand that the moment of truth is close and the brave people will never accept to live under the old, collapsed and dead colonial system, The lesson to be learnt is very clear; the Soviet Union was defeated in Afghanistan in the last century and its domino effect will soon reach Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. It’s only a matter of when, not if.
The last important lesson for America and the West at large is that they might win tactically in their so-called war against terrorism but they should understand they are losing strategically, whether on the side of shrinking freedom, or the draining of resources that has made America into a debt-ridden country. Meanwhile, the militants are increasing in strength and power as before.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 15th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (15)
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@John B:
Glad someone's comment noting the Al Jazeera bureau chief's slant got through and you pretty much layed out the ground realities of Sunni Islamist militants, their sympathies, including in Pak and elsewhere globally, which we'd assume obvious, but apparently not...
@John B:
Sunni Vs Shia >>>>> one sect Vs another >>>>>>all this is a medieval mindset .
The West has walked away from such narrow thinking habits. It is time for Islam to change towards tolerance from within.
God did not invent sects. They are man-made.
@Naeem Khan Manhattan,Ks: If US had withdrawn in 2001, would Bin Laden be dead? Would US have been free from terrorism for this long in the aftermath of 9/11? The unnecessary and wrong war was the war of choice in Iraq which is what ceated the huge debt in the US economy.
.@John B: You may be right that US is consuming most of their oil and gas from North America and Mexico but disruption of middle eastern oil will cause disruption in the economy over here, our allies in Europe and Far Eastern countries will demand to share North American oil and that will create a problem for US, I don't think Americans would stand for 7-10 dollars a gallon and decrease in their way of living. Yes, It was a deliberate attempt by the Northern Alliance and the US State Department to marginalize the Pukhtun population of Afghanistan although they are in majority and has been ruling Afghanistan for centuries, looking at the statistics of Afghan security services will show the disparity. Americans has miscalculated the tenacity of the Taliban, in my view it would have been prudent to go, oust Taliban government and come home right away. what has been accomplished in the last 13 years of occupation after spending more than trillion dollars and getting themselves in huge debt at home, the out come will be same after the withdrawl of NATO forces. And let us not fool ourselves that the fighting will subside when the NATO forces leave this year, as long as there are any foreign troops left behind , the war of attrition will go on. The author Mr.Zaidan is right in pointing out that the security forces created by the Americans during the occupation will not sustain the onslaught of local patriotic forces and eventually will be disbanded, the writing is already on the wall.
I think we can handle a bunch of rag tag Punjabi Taliban if they want a piece. The darker they are the harder they fall. Come give it a test. Your entire military establishment would never dare step a single foot in Afghanistan yet alone your terrorists. There's a reason for that.
@objective observer. You are incorrect about Afghans. No resistance was offered when the Nato lead forces after 2001. After the British defeat in the first Anglo-Afghan war, despite numerical superiority Afghans offered no resistance to the Army of Retribution under George Pollock. Strategically advantageous Khyber Pass was no match; and Kabul was deserted.
An Afghan tribal may carry his enmity to the end and may engage in guerilla tactics. They have not proven resilient to a well trained army. They have not engaged in any pitched battles with the Americans.
The Afghans of Khurasan have age-old reputation’, wrote Mirza Ata Mohammad (1840s), ‘that wherever the lamp of power burns brightly, there like moths they swarm; and wherever the tablecloth of plenty is spread, there like flies they gather.’ The reverse was also true. Even half-brothers of King Zaman Shah deserted when the chips were down.
Time for Muslim countries to stand up and take responsibility for their own decisions. The American's didn't start animosity between Sunni and Shia. The American's build a Sunni alliance before departing Iraq - it was Maliki who systematically destroyed that alliance and it is Maliki who is responsible for alienating the Sunni and Kurds. The two countries fueling the Iraq conflict are Saudi Arabia and Iran - Muslim countries the last time I looked.
Ohh....... Muslims can not live peacefully anywhere - whether in majority or minority .
In the end, the author advocates that Americans and west (whoever that is) should support the Sunni allies (who according to the author were marginalized) and ignore Iranian (Shia) analysis of the situation.
The sea of oil of Iraq or the rest of the gulf is of no concern to Americans. All US oil comes from North America. It is a concern only for the Europeans and the Asian nations ( which pretty much includes the rest of the world). So, if the rest of the world want peace, it is high time they realize that the Sunni islamic militants should be curbed before things get out of control instead of trying to appease them for the sake of Sunni allies. Turkey is not going fight, unless they want to risk a civil war in their countries. Neither will the rest of the so called Sunni allies.
This is an Islamic emirate conquest, naturally sympathized and supported by Sunni islamists.
One needs to realize that PAK is already in the midst of it. The Sunni islamic militants hate every one except themselves. So, wake up everyone.
The Americans did have a shallow understanding of the region. They totally miscalculated cultural and religious dynamics in the Muslim world, and were unable to reliably link cause and effect. But the author should realize that the last 13 years have provided those paying attention with an invaluable education. Silly, naive notions of nation building, secular democracy, tolerance and coexistence have been rightfully abandoned when it comes to america's expectations in the muslim world. The next generation of american policy makers will be under no such illusions, and will address realities rather than pie in the sky assumptions that "deep down, we're all human beings and all want the same freedoms.". The last decade has convincingly proven that while we're all human, we are culturaly and religiously from different planets, and we don't want the same things.
Afghanistan is not IRAQ. !!!!
Let us wait and see how the Afghans of 2014 handle the situation.
Let me tell you something about Afghans. They don't lay down their arms and run.
Keep Dreaming
Let them fight each other as long as they don't trouble the rest of the world.Just build a new great wall and leave them to sort each other out.
Whatever amalysis you do I the end one thing is clear Muslims can't live together. Once America is out of afghanistan people will start fighting again and same goes for Iraq .