A split in the offing?

The government has not always acted wisely, but constant threats and pressure make its task a more challenging one.

In the two and a half years over which we have come to know him as head of government, Yousaf Raza Gilani, the Pir from Multan, has come across almost unfailingly as an affable man who has frequently been able to calm churning waters with a few soothing words. The display of obvious anger from the prime minister on the floor of the National Assembly, however, makes it clear that he is deeply frustrated by the constant hurling of obstacles in the path of the administration to prevent it from running smoothly. It is true that the government has not always acted wisely. But constant jibes, constant threats and constant pressure make its task a more challenging one.

The pressures this time round come from the PML-N. Several of its leaders, including Mian Nawaz Sharif and leader of the opposition in the National Assembly, Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, have been talking of mid-term polls and issuing warnings that the government must act more effectively. Almost on a daily basis, statements are made to the press demanding that the government act swiftly to end corruption and heed to the apex court on the NRO. There have also been accounts of meetings between the Punjab chief minister and the army chief, though Gilani went to some length to stress that the military sought to protect democracy. We certainly hope it, like all other institutions, will continue to be guided by the Constitution — but the history of opposition demands for change, followed by upheavals orchestrated by non-democratic forces , gives cause for alarm.

Judging by the prime minister’s uncharacteristically harsh tone, and his evident loss of patience, we can also predict the alliance set up between the former arch-enemies in 2008 is now over. The PPP and the PML-N seem set to go their separate ways. It seems less and less likely that this split will be avoided. The results will be significant. We could see new alliances cropping up, bringing about a change in the style and rhythm of governance. The PPP, as Benazir Bhutto did in the past, will also face a potentially hostile Punjab — unless it is also able to swing change there. The script for the play has, it seems, already been written. We wait only for the curtain to go up and the theatrics to begin.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 4^th, 2010.