What to expect from Modi’s India

If we are to compete against Indian hegemony, we will have to become like the Indians.

As expected, the BJP has registered a resounding victory in the Indian general elections. This means that Narendra Modi will be the new Indian prime minister. What does this mean for the India-Pakistan relationship? The safe bet is that tensions between the two countries will grow rather than shrink. Whether it is the violation of the ceasefire on the Line of Control, accusations of cross-border infiltration and terrorism or the proxy war that both countries fight in Afghanistan — chances are that the India-Pakistan rivalry will not subside but rather take centre stage.

Pakistan will not submit to the nature of uncontested Indian dominance and hegemony and will continue to try and balance against the build-up of Indian military power. Idealists want and desire that the character of the interstate relationship between the two regional rivals should change for good. This would require both countries to stop competing politically and militarily for the preservation of the ‘present order’, the foundations of which were laid by Partition and 1948, 1965, 1971 and the Kargil War. These wars have only diverted the time and resources of the two countries from the real issues that plague them. Realists would rather Pakistan focus more internally and first put its own house in order before contemplating the likely scenarios of a ‘win-win’ or ‘lose-lose’ relationship with a post-poll India.

In the ‘Modi India’, should we expect the old-fashioned enmity and distrust between the two countries to go away? Will there be a reorientation in the foreign policy of the two countries? It is being said that the history of the 21^st century will be written largely in the Asia-Pacific region. Will the two countries engage each other positively on the economic and political fronts to draw benefits and rewards from the resurging Asia-Pacific region? Pakistan is weak and is fighting a battle for its survival. To survive, Pakistan not only has to fight terrorism as its arch-enemy but also has to compete with India.

A secular, liberal and open society like that of India is throwing huge ideological and cultural challenges for the Pakistani society to fight. If we are to compete against Indian political, military, economic and cultural hegemony, we will have to become like the Indians. Not in the true sense of their identity but in how they are evolving as a democracy and how they run their country. The latest example of that is the conduct and management of the biggest democratic elections on electronic machines that did away with the possibility of doubt, fraud and deceit. Compare this with not only what happened in the elections in Pakistan last year but what followed the polls. The election commission and the judicial commissions failed to act on the complaints of ‘electoral fraud’ by the political parties and street protests seem to be setting the stage for another political deadlock in the country. Unlike India, democracy in Pakistan has not reformed or improved the political and social structures, which is a failing on the part of our seasoned politicians, who only represent a status quo mindset devoid of any fresh ideas. Not many people in Pakistan doubt today that had the elections been conducted as fairly and freely as they were in India, most of the ‘non-delivering’ politicians and businessmen of a feudalistic mentality may never have returned to the assemblies. If the Congress could be routed in the Indian elections, could the fate of the two major political parties in Pakistan have been any different?

The X factor of the ‘Indian rise’ is the decision by Indians to jump onto the modernity bandwagon. The liberal, secular and the free Indian society draws favourable international response that is hugely conducive to its interest. While in Pakistan we are still being driven by a democratic order that moves too slowly and does nothing about roadblocks and obstacles such as lack of political reforms, openness and good governance. Take the example of the spread of polio and the two countries’ fight against it. Just five years ago, India accounted for nearly half of the world’s infections. But this year in March, India was declared polio free. In Pakistan, we had six cases of polio in the same period in 2013. We have 59 cases now and restrictions on travel abroad without polio vaccine certification. At the heart of the matter is the lack of political will and poor leadership. For 12 months, this government has dilly-dallied with the possibility of initiating a military operation in North Waziristan.

Talking to terrorists has only been a method to gain time and avoid confrontation. The leadership seems to be too afraid of a blow back that an operation against the Taliban stronghold could bring to the heartland of the country. Such a defeatist mindset can only cause a prevalence of polio (56 of the 59 cases from Waziristan) and ‘reform bankruptcy’.

Today we face a stark choice. We can cling on to our nuclear weapons, proxy wars, gun-toting terrorists and jihadi organisations and feel like a military, political and social giant in the Asia-Pacific region or realise that without quick therapy and ‘internal reforms’ we will remain the regional pygmies that will continue to sit on the shores of the global sea of economic benefits, partnerships and alliances. Sitting on the margins of the world economy, the only tides of benefit that will consistently reach our shores will be from the IMF and the World Bank.

Courtesy and thanks to the nuclear weapons and the logic of mutually assured destruction there are limited chances of another conventional war between India and Pakistan. If India can reduce its offensive military capability on Pakistan’s borders, it can send the right signals to Pakistan assuring it that it has no plans of attacking it. With risks of war reduced, Pakistan would stop attempts to balance the scales against India and would more effectively re-balance against the original threat from inside.

It is hoped that the post-election India will make a new beginning with Pakistan based on the norms of state sovereignty and non-intervention. Considering the role Indians played in the dismemberment of Pakistan, protecting its independence and sovereignty should be its number one worry. Thus, the grand vision of an ‘alternative India-Pakistan order’ based on economics, commerce and trade cannot be a substitute for the huge geopolitical and military insecurities that Pakistan suffers vis-a-vis India.

If there ever will be a grand strategic South Asia initiative, it would require a joint political will that should push ‘transformational diplomacy’ to take root. The objective of such diplomacy can only be one — get the two nations to sit together, talk and resolve all their issues.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 26^th, 2014.

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