Change in India

The searching electorate could only see Modi wherever it looked, and except for 3 states, shifted allegiance to BJP.

All that there is to say about the new government is there in the Indian newspapers, with BJP leader Narendra Modi to be officially sworn in as India’s prime minister on May 26. There is intense speculation on whether Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will attend the swearing in, as an invitation has been issued to all Saarc heads of government with Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajpaksa’s attendance almost certain.

But while that is for the South Asian governments to figure out, the focus of the 69 per cent of the electorate who voted for political parties other than the BJP is shifting to why the opposition was decimated in these polls. And it is becoming increasingly clear that most of these parties had actually factored themselves out of the elections long before the polling day, except they are too alienated now from the people to realise it.

The three regional parties that have done exceedingly well are Tamil Nadu’s AIADMK under Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal under Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik. Between them they have secured over 90 Lok Sabha seats and were able to stem the Modi wave to retain complete hold on their constituents.

Perhaps, the answer to the question in the second paragraph can be found to some extent in the excellent performance of these three regional parties. They have been running responsive governments, they have been active in the field, they have countered other political offensives with vigour and zeal, and they have managed to convince the people through a blend of decent governance and ground activity that they can be trusted to carry forward the aspirations of their constituents to parliament as well.

The anger against the Congress party was the first reality of this election, as it swept the country. The arrogance and the inability to make amends, hit the voters in almost all the states. Modi was amongst the first to realise this, and over a year ago began a campaign against the Congress. The media and the support from the corporates was just an enabling factor, in that it helped him project himself as a major alternative to the old party that completely failed the people on all issues, be it governance, security (internal and external), development, social justice and equity. In the process, the searching electorate could only see Modi wherever it looked, and except for the above states, shifted allegiance to the BJP in the final stages of the polls in the hope that its aspirations for jobs, development and progress would be met by the person they perceive as a ‘strong leader’.

The second reality of the election was the ‘Congress-isation’ of the other parties. The dynasties, the arrogance, the corruption, the more than ever reliance on ‘there is no other alternative’ factor, the taking-for-granted of communities and castes (where will they go, they cannot go anywhere approach), all came together in a potent mix for the frustrated voters who decided to shift allegiance and make it clear that they could no longer be taken for granted. The vote banks, nurtured with lies and not policies, slipped away with political leaders like Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati catatonic in their responses.

The Left, too, has been hit hard, with its rigid leadership and its inability to change to the new circumstances placing it on the fringes of polity today, not looking in, but looking out. The Left’s failure to learn from the last West Bengal defeat, and overhaul its organisation into a more responsive and youthful body, has been a major reason for its continuous marginalisation.

The third reality of the election was Modi himself. He has proven to be a master strategist besides being a good orator and a workaholic, which places him ahead of all the leaders who have all become used to the good life and vote banks that are going nowhere. He was not complacent and walked the extra miles to woo the people into his fold. He has succeeded to a point where the opposition is virtually demolished and for the first time in independent India’s history, there is no one party with sufficient numbers to lead the opposition in the Lok Sabha.

The BJP and the RSS are working full time to get the government’s act together, but again the same sense of urgency is completely missing in the opposition. Except for Janata Dal(U) leader Nitish Kumar who has shown the calibre to take stock and learn from these elections, the Left has still to meet and the Congress that has met has only reaffirmed faith in the dynasty that has led it to its ruin in the first place.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 24^th, 2014.

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