Phony polio figures

Fabricating figures regarding polio immunisation may erode what little international credibility we have.

The sorry tale of failure in respect of the drive to eradicate polio in Pakistan took another dark turn in the Senate on May 16. The Minister of State for National Health Services, Regulation and Coordination, Saira Afzal Tarar, made a startling admission. Any number of reasons, excuses and pretexts have been wheeled out to explain why it is that Pakistan has so terribly failed its people with regard to polio vaccination. The principal culprit is generally presented as being poor security and obscurantism, with these to the fore when we pleaded for ‘extra time’ before implementing the restrictions recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO) on travel to other countries by Pakistan nationals. It now transpires that one of the reasons why the WHO may have sought the restrictions was because the figures from immunisation campaigns had, in a number of instances, been fabricated.

Refusals to vaccinate on religious grounds, typically presented as a major impediment, in fact only accounted for 0.5 per cent — a tiny fraction. Data received from districts and provinces that flowed into the federal ministry painted a picture of a success rate for immunisation that was as high as 80 or 90 per cent, a figure which is close to that necessary to achieve herd immunity, and the reality was far from that. The actual numbers are both sobering and frightening in almost equal measure. Balochistan is almost an immunisational vacuum with just 16 per cent of the population vaccinated, Sindh has 29 per cent, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa 52 per cent and Punjab 68.5 per cent. Obviously none of these figures is anywhere close to achieving herd immunity. Parts of Karachi and Fata are no-go areas for vaccinators, and the polio virus has been exported from Pakistan to other countries. Fabricating figures in an issue of such vital import is a move of breathtaking stupidity that may erode what little international credibility we have. Let us hope that the wake-up call is now heeded, because Pakistan can beat polio if it really wants to.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 19^th, 2014.

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