The writer is a consulting editor with The Statesman and writes for several newspapers in India
India has voted. And the BJP and its prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, have been given a resounding verdict, sweeping into power with more than a majority. The Congress has been virtually trounced, as has been the Left and most of the regional parties, except for those that have looked after their states and done well for the people.
Speaking to ABC News just now, a question by the interviewer was what would be the reaction of Pakistan to this development. And the response of this writer was that when the BJP-led NDA was in power under then prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, Pakistan seemed to be of the view that the BJP in New Delhi and the military in Islamabad were a potent combination, not for disaster, but for delivering peace to the region. And this could well be the thinking across the border even now, with the only uncertainty being what Modi has to say about relations with Pakistan. And whether he will be friendly, or hostile in government.
Modi did raise the issue of Pakistan during the elections towards the end of the campaign. Others told those who did not vote for Modi in India, to go to Pakistan, in a clear signal of animosity. However, this was during a heated and tense campaign, and might not necessarily be part of policy when Modi and his government take over. These are early days yet, and Modi is a dramatic personality, who might just decide to walk an extra kilometre knowing that he has the power and the authority to retrace his steps whenever he chooses to do so. So there could be a period where the new prime minister of India outdoes his erstwhile BJP colleague Vajpayee, and makes a gesture of a visit, or of talks, that the Congress prime minister, Manmohan Singh, was unable to do for many years. At the same time, he could make it clear to the domestic constituency, in the process, that his government is in full control and will not hesitate to pull back, and perhaps even hit out if required, if Pakistan transgresses expectations.
In short, New Delhi’s Pakistan policy will be hard and could well follow the pro-BJP strategic establishment’s constant advice to ensure that India does not hesitate to opt for the hard option (read: hard diplomacy or even military) if and when required. It was many of those who will now be with the NDA in different capacities perhaps, who had advocated a military strike after the terror attack on Mumbai but were not taken on board by the government at the time.
Modi’s is a harder constituency at one level, than the one Vajpayee addressed. His support does not come from the BJP per se but more so from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh that has managed this election for him. He will need to keep this constituency in good fettle if he wants the space to take hard domestic decisions and here peace could be a casualty at some point in time.
India has turned a chapter, or perhaps an entire book, with a new one being written now. The Nehruvian era is over, and the country has entered an entirely new phase where the nationalist right has come into government through an amazing victory. The opposition has scattered almost completely, except in Tamil Nadu, Orissa and West Bengal where it remains in sufficiently large numbers to take independent decisions. However, the writing on the wall suggests some degree of close cooperation, if not alliance, between Orissa’s Biju Janata Dal and Tamil Nadu’s AIADMK with the new government. West Bengal’s chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, who has done extremely well in these elections might be the only one to resist direct liaison with Modi’s government, and largely because of the overwhelming support she has received from the minorities in her state.
The media is completely supportive because the corporates have signed a blank cheque in favour of Modi. The opposition is looking dismal, with the Congress figures having slumped to an all-time low in parliament. In the first flush of defeat all that the Congress workers could do was raise slogans asking for Priyanka Gandhi to take over the party, in yet another indication of fossilised thinking and total inaction. The Uttar Pradesh and Bihar regional parties have moved into single digit figures, in another signal that the resistance to the BJP in the Hindi heartland has been finally not just subdued but vanquished.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 17th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (29)
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@Bakhtiyar Ghazi Khan: There were riots in Gujarat not a massacre. hindus also died in those riots. Those riots happened 12 years back. There have been no riits in Gujarat for the last 12 years. People responsible for the riots have been convicted and currently in jail. Total number of Muslims who died in Gujarat riots 12 years back is half that of the number that are killed in Karachi alone every year.
@Ricky: Vajpayee never got the kind of mandate Modi got. In 1996, despite BJP being the largest sinle party, ABV being invited to form government, he failed to do so, since no one supported him. Even in 1998 he lost a motion of no-confidence against him. So the notion that no one objected to him is simply ot true.
Many Indian Muslims are fearful for their future under Modi. Gujurat massacres will be repeated throughout all of India, just as pre-election violence took place in UP, Bihar, Assam. Muslims of Gujurat have been completely subdued and humiliated into submission by BJP, RSS, VHP violence. Communalism and hatred has swept Modi into power under the false guise of development (based on remittances by Gujurati immigrants all over the world). Modi's speeches against Pakistan and Bangladesh are proof of this fact of his violent roots.
Today I am praying for my Indian Muslim brothers and sisters, but also glad for the sacrifice of my ancestors and great leaders like Jinnah and Iqbal that I am Pakistani today.
so that explains the stench
I don't understand why people forget that India is a land of 85% Hindus. Yes, India is secular and honors freedom of religion, expression and speech - but that doesn't mean the only way to win in politics is to keep appeasing to the minorities and brush aside real issues. That is exactly why the Congress has lost. People are fed up of the Congress brushing aside development and job creation and keep harping on the communal boogie man called Modi. Modi for the past 10 years has transformed Gujarat and made it a vibrant center of commerce - which has helped all citizens there irrespective of religious preference.
I'm glad the youth and the country (including the Muslims) has chosen Modi - Yes, hez a Hindu and proud of it - but he has promised development and progress for a Billion Indians and not just for Hindus of the country. Communalism and hate mongering doesn't help development and well-being and Indians are mature enough to understand that and have chosen him as their leader. Sorry, Ms Mustafa - you're a sore looser.
If the charges against sitting CM were not proved and most witnesses were coerced and intimidated that does not mean he was an innocent man. Not too many people testify against most powerful man in the state. The point is BJP could not find a more tainted man than Modi. Nobody hated or objected to the election of ABV a clean leader.
@John B: First of all two right of center parties. Had been in power in 1999 also and Vajpayee went to Mennare-Pakistan. Then Kargill happened. So do not hold your breath. We all know that the civilian government does no control Pakistan's foreign policy.
Also why should a Hindu boy running away with a Muslim girl in India have any impact on India Pakistan relations?
@Indian: It is never too late to realize about possibilities on the other side of the box we are in. I think Ms. Mustafa analyzed the developments very well in her article. She was a critic of Modi but has also been a very contributive Indian journalist.
ET my rebuttal to Ricky is fact based. Instead of reinforcing hatred and fear for Modi, if you published my fact based reuttal, i would appreciate. @Ricky: Well you maybe surprised that after 12 years of riot free overnsce and after intense scrutiny of his role in 2002 riots after which the Spreme court acquitted him, the fear mongering ceased to work. Muslims have also voted for him outside Gujarat. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bjp-and-narendra-modi-have-won-muslim-votes-too-clerics/articleshow/35251639.cms
To hear why one Muslim - a rthaer well known journalist called M.J. kbar whos was a fierce critic of Modi recently joined BJP and endorses Modi take a listen : http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8KD8dSioiKU
That's surprising ! I don't see the words Hitler, Nazi, Fascist, Hindutva, Goebbels etc. anywhere...
For the past 12 years Modi was being bashed left, right and center by the media ... and now you complain that the "media is supportive because the corporates have signed a blank check"!
The author still does not get it that the Indian public is fed up with the fake-secular politician/media nexus and he has given this nexus a big thumbs down !
Congress tried to make this into a communal issue and tried to instil fear into muslims and other minorities. I was surprised to learn today that about 30% of muslims have voted for Modi. Some muslim majority areas (for eg Rampur) in UP voted for Modi. Modi has been elected on the plank of economic development. He is bound by the solemn promise to continue on that path. There is no time for Ram Mandir and other such nonsense.
Two so called right wing parties on both sides of the borders are in power. An opportunity like this may never happen again. On the PAK -India relationship several things can be accomplished that are appealing to both religious nuts as well to the secularists. Neither modi nor Shariff can afford to let the moment pass.
A loose canon incident in both sides of the border will definitely thwart the well intentioned efforts by both governments. I am afraid that this time it will be in India and Modi cannot control all the loose canons. Not all supporters of Modi are secularists, to say the least.
A simple incident of Hindu boy eloping with a Muslim girl or any hooligan incident in which a victim happened to be another religion will be blown out of control. Modi has a tough task ahead. India is not Gujarat, and BJP rise to power begins in Ayodya and ends in Varanasi. Modi's term could also equally set India behind.
Muslims voted in large numbers for this man. The Muslim establishment does not like it. If Modi creates jobs, he can help the Muslims prosper. Hopefully, they can shed the dependency on Congress' faux secularism and the fear mongering of leaders from their own community.
The public in India have not been fooled by the pseudo-secularists whose only objective is to keep in tact the imaginary insecurity of the Muslims if BJP comes to power. The Congress party had nothing much to show as achievements while campaigning during the elections. The dynastic leadership of the party had reduced the PM to a robot that acted as controlled by the Gfamily, especially during the past two years. That the Congress party is still thinking of bringing in another member of the family to shore up the party's fortunes indicates the bankruptcy of leadership in the party, which was exactly why it faced its worst defeat in history.
Yes, India has spoken but when will you shut up with your harangues?
It is my firm believe that first time after Independence Indian Muslim will taste true prosperity. They were held hostage by so called secular party. All effort of secular media failed to stop Modi juggernaut.
Its the Economy stupid. India has voted on promises of jobs, growth, better life, lower prices, improved infrastructure, 24x7 water and electricity for all. Modi is a Gujarati , one who understands business. Muslims have indeed also voted for modi, hoping that jobs and prosperity will be for all to share. The Young have voted for the ability to buy new mobiles, new homes, better quality of life, and the dreams of a new century.
I as a Pakistani welcome Modi's election and his party's ascendance to power. I feel that the problem is more on the Pakistani side, with the vested interested not letting India-Pak relations towards a thaw, because the powers that be in Pakistan do not gain from it. I think it is time to jolt the India-Pak relationship out of the status quo, and what better way than to bring a hawkish government in power in India! I feel that I atleast I know where Modi stands in terms of his convictions and I respect that; the same could not be said of the Congress that was too accommodating and trying to please everyone.
T Khan Malaysia (from KPK, Pakistan)
If there is one take-away from this election, it is that secularism alone does not sell. Every party that only campaigned based on fear has been swept away, and every one of them is now awake to the perils of reverse-consolidation that has resulted partially from their fear-mongering. Hopefully muslims will now evaluate the government based on its achievements or lack thereof, instead of community-positions that are carved in stone; they must cease to be pawns in a chess game where they are never allowed to reach the final row.
@Author: The media is completely supportive because the corporates have signed a blank cheque in favour of Modi.
where were these corporates for the past 12 years when modi was being bashed in media even after getting the clean chit?
Once again India's Muslim leadership failed muslims. Not a single muslim MP from UP. They will be under represented in the new parliament. Muslims will have to start doing business with BJP (including the writer, of course).
I am delighted that political parties that parroted secularism while pandering to communal Muslim vote-bank politics have been vanquished. I look forward to not just a single term but a double term for the BJP and Mr. Modi. Much needs to be done, including seeing to it that terrorists and their supporters who have targeted India and are residing in Pakistan are brought to Justice.
It is a great shame that the winning party in India could not find a more blood tainted leader. The secular India has disappointed for overwhelmingly electing a controversial and fanatic man among more than a billion population. Let us hope and pray that PM Modi is different from CM Modi. He has to do a lot to justify the confidence of huge majority. Can Modi be at the level of Gandhi, Nehru or other great Indian leaders? The world is watching.
Amusing to see the Author crying on Modi Win. Big SLAP after defaming Modi for years...
The results are out and the best thing about them is the majority, so no dependence on unpredictable coalition partners . Now with a free hand hope the new govt can provide communal harmony , strong economy and most important JOBS for the unemployed youth . I am hopeful
Basis of Indo-Pak relations for Modi government is going to be the Lahore declaration of 1999 between Vajpayee and Sharrif. Mod has made it more than clear that he won't have any thing to do with Pakistan until cross border terrorism originating from Pakistan is stopped.
What can those parties that pretend to be speaking for the muslims of India, but in fact have always kept them backward do now?
Modi has won with thumbing majority. The voter turnout this time was the highest ever in India. A resounding victory with high voter turnout clearly proves that most muslims of India have voted for modi.
You cannot bring in caste this time. Modi has broken all caste barriers, he himself is from a lower caste and also rose to this level from his humble beginning as a son of a tea stall owner. Voters from all caste have voted for Modi.
You cannot talk about prosperity and economic growth. On corruption Modi is personally regarded for his corruption free record.
Cannot bring in muslim factor also as his party has won 3 out of 6 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, has won 71 out of 75 seats in UP, a state with 15% muslim population and has also won all 26 seats in Gujarat.
Congress won just 43 seats nationally. Even to become a leader of opposition the party should have won 55 seats.
No party that has not been in power has done so well in India ever since 1977. Modi has proved that most muslims of India trust him and believe that his government and policies will be good for them.
End or Dynasty and revival of true Democracy in India.
PS: Indian stores in USA are giving away free Motichoor Ladoos today to celebrate Modi's victory.
When the full analysis of voters is published, we may see that over 70% of muslims of India have voted for Modi and BJP.
@Author: The media is completely supportive because the corporates have signed a blank cheque in favour of Modi.
I don't know which universe you live in, but that is not the impression I got living in India. in fact, I stopped watching the media and relied only on the "Deccan Herald" over the past few months.
Months ago it was a forgone conclusion that Modi would win... but few and yes there were some on this site who predicted a landslide victory......and so it has happened. I would think that expectations in India will be very high and his focus will be on first meeting them........but its clear that along with his huge mandate, he now shoulders huge responsibilities and much will depend on his chosen ministers and advisers. It looks like the Indian media will have their hands full in the coming months.