The writer is a consulting editor with The Statesman and writes for several newspapers in India
New governments in Islamabad or Delhi always led to speculation in both countries about how these would impact bilateral relations: will we move forward or regress further? This time the concerns are more, as even in India, the secular and progressive sections that comprise the wide non-BJP polity are worried about the domestic impact, let alone the international consequences of a Narendra Modi-led government in Delhi.
It is perhaps, to do with the BJP manifesto suggesting the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and the anti-Pakistan propaganda that is forming some part of the election propaganda; this has led to reports of emissaries being sent by Modi to the border state and also to the neighbouring country. In Kashmir, it turned out to be a case of a mouse that roared as the emissaries were found to be two self-styled lightweight politicians from the BJP and the Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party who had recently jumped onboard the Modi bandwagon. Clearly they were hoping to inveigle themselves with key Kashmiri leaders with an eye on the forthcoming Assembly elections. They were also hoping perhaps, if luck favoured them, to seize an early start and emerge as the conduits between a new government in Delhi and the Kashmiri separatists and others.
Similar seems to have been the case in Pakistan. Self-styled functionaries seeking to get an early foot into the India-Pakistan pie for whatever its worth, of course. Modi is in the midst of a hectic election campaign and given the tense schedule –– and the uncertainty of the Indian electorate –– he certainly does not have the time nor the interest to send out emissaries to a country that is probably last in his list of priorities. Not because it should be, but because he is an archetypal BJP/RSS leader and will not rush to improve relations with Pakistan.
The only reason behind these ‘calculated’ leaks, as they were, could be a long BJP shot at assuaging those who are finding the vitriolic, communal campaign in the country a little difficult to accept. A sort of ‘don’t worry if Modi comes to power, he will not be an unreasonable leader’ message is left sufficiently vague so as not to bother the hard constituency of the BJP and the RSS. The emissaries were certainly not real, in that they were not part of any well-thought-out effort to strike new relations at this highly uncertain stage of an election which could go in any direction.
In brief, if these emissaries actually had some BJP support at some higher level, then it was only to send signals to the fence-sitting domestic constituency and with no real interest in improving India-Pakistan relations, or in addressing the concerns of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
India is poised at a crucial juncture of her young history. And the large majority of Indians are concerned and worried. This is evident from the odd articles that do get past the corporate control of the media, the comments, the meetings, the statements and the petitions that are all making the rounds, asking people to vote for a secular, progressive India. Even Bollywood that hesitates to make a political statement has actors, directors, scriptwriters and lyricists coming out to sign a statement warning people to choose and vote carefully and to ensure that their vote strengthens secularism. Petitions and warnings are circulating online even as non- BJP political parties fight hard battles on the ground all across the country. So first, there are the agents of fascism, the corporates, and the media that are rah-rahing for a change in the Indian parliamentary democratic order. And then there are the silent majority struggling to ensure that this does not happen.
It is a tough fight as one side has the support of the country’s fourth estate as well as the moneybags, while the other side is scattered and disunited with petty egos and little to no electoral alliances. If the first wins, it will not be because its share of votes would have crossed substantially over 30 per cent, but because the 70 per cent on the other side is broken into factions and groups.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 26th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (36)
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sabi : I wish your "face reading" well. But for a start , your comments about Mr Modi are factually wrong and blatantly biased. So better go back to square one on learning "face reading"
@sabi: So in that case, i acurious to know what is the basis of your opinion.
@Gp65: "ET- @sabi has asked me specifically for evidence. Please allow me to provide it.' No I didn't ask for evidence rather replied you and others asking me to to provide evidence or some logic for my statement on Modi.My point is not whether he is guilty or not, but if he will be able to take India to new heights:
ET- @sabi has asked me specifically for evidence. Please allow me to provide it.
@sabi: Google search should provide you evidence that 1) supreme court has acquitted him with regards to the riots even as the courts have convicted several others (both Hindus and Muslims for ghe riots) 2) poverty rate of Muslims in Gujarat is lower than overall poverty rate in Gujarat, it is also lower than poverty rate of Muslims in other states 3) gujarat has been riot free for last 12 years. Prior to 2002 there used to be riots every 2-3 years 4) he asked for help from neighbouring states to send reinforcements and they refused for political reasons. He then called the army and riots stopped on day 3. He thus did everything o stop the riots. It is also a fact that start of riots had nothing to do with Mosi and everything yo do with burning of 58 Hindu pilgrims by a mob of 2000 Muslims 5) google Swagat - the Gujarat grievance redressal system to learn about transparency. Also google Vibrant Gujarat which will prove that ALL investors are welcome to Gujarat not just crony capitalists. Google agriculture growth rate in Gujarat to learn that the growth has not benefited only the rich elite.
Generally it is believed that people are innocent until proven guilty. In case of Modi it seems opposite guilty even after being acquitted. Really strange.
@Prabhjyot Singh Madan: People are disagreeing with the content of her articles. The fact that she is Indian has little to do with it. If you disagree with facts and/or logic of those disagreeing with her - by all means respond. This blanket advice to spare her because she is an Indian woman seems lame.
Of course she and you and all Indians who are over 18 have a right to vote for whom they choose. None of the criticism seeks to deny her the right to make her own choice.
@Gp65: @vasan: @BlackJack: Evidence? Face reading! I wish I'm wrong. @Naresh: Don't you see people have rejected all the players you have pointed at on this side of the border.
Rumor has it that just like the Indian media did a ferocious job in investigating the Gujarat riots for the past 12 years, it is going to investigate the assets hidden in India and abroad held by Indian politicians, their family members and their cronies for the next 12 years starting with the Gandhi family. Is this really true ?
@Ajay Mittal: Same old same old wrapped up in roses. But the smell does not go away. It is rank and dank. Because years of Muslim hate mongering. And escaping the so called "Supreme Court" inability to make any thing stick. to Modi. By a hair breath.
Some indian electorate seem more sure than seemaji 'Manmohan’s younger brother joins BJP' http://www.samachar.com/I-have-no-control-they-are-all-adults-Manmohan-on-brother-joining-BJP-oe1dKEjhfje.html LOL!
Ms. Mustafa, I find it very disgusting when you describe the rank-communal parties as secular parties. Most of these are not just extremely communal but are extremely corrupted and criminalized. The danger to the country lies in their existence. The danger will only go away when these parties are taken out and BJP remains the only option to fill the gap in the present scenario. Fortunately BJP has a capable an determined man at the top. BJP by and large is not afflicted with these issues and it also happens to be the least communal or actually a truly secular party that speaks frankly and treats all equally. And this is coming from a layman who is not affiliated or has connections with any party. Your identification of national issues also betrays your lack of understanding of issues facing India. The issues facing India are: 1) Restoring governance by having right economic, security and development goals & priorities & achieving them by appointing the right kind of people who are NOT corrupt and have the right commitment. NONE of the existing political parties at the national level or regional level have it except AAP and BJP. BJP may not be made of all competent people but it has substantial and the leadership will make the difference. 2) Restoring equality between sections of society by removing unequal reservation policy, having village/farmer/poor friendly policies; creating jobs in both cities & villages; and introducing a common civil code 3)Bring communal harmony by preventing imams and priests from politicking and introducing severe disincentives and punishments. 4) Controlling inflation by sound distribution, pricing and population control. 6)Protect country from terrorists, underworld dons & setting expectations properly with neighboring countries. Which of your so-called secular parties intend to do any of these?
Esteemed author is saying between the lines:
Coconuts (white inside though brown outside) and Kiwis green inside though brown outside) are entitled to mis-rule India, how dare desi mangoes asking to sit on dilli throne.
Modi will soon realize that india is much bigger and diverse than Gujarat where he was the Chief Minister. That he will change India to his way of thinking is erroneous and It is he will change and not India. Let us wait and see!
@Gp65: Modi is a class A-1 manipulator. His henchman, right hand, Shah, [out on bail on murder charges, killing Muslims] is his mouthpiece. His carbon copy. The other pea in the pod is Singh, the same vitriol spewing, no selling land to Muslims, send them to Pakistan demagogue politician who is running for election. According to the latest investigation, facts are linking Modi to planning, execution, destruction of Babri Masjid. This Modi is a personna non grata in Europe, Canada and US. The last US ambassador to India resigned, rather than deal with Modi. Or grant him a visa. Pathetic indeed. For some unexplained reason it is very difficult for Indians to accept this. And they will descend en masse, all 1.2 billion of them, on any hint of anti Modi sentiment.
ET please print. Fair analysis, freedom of speech.
@BlackJack: I liked your explanation because it reads making sense ...... but listening and reading various views, I don't think I'd put my money on Modi........just yet. Though if I were asked to venture a guess I'd say ' Modi ( surprisingly few say BJP and that's quite an achievement for the man.....good or bad, has to be seen ) but he will have to win over some others ( ...and I hear they are all women ). So its interesting.
The anti Modi cottage industry is gasping for its last breath.
Seriously , ashamed of fellow Indians criticizing a fellow analyst so severely. She is right, I am entitled to my opinion but don't belittle a Indian woman my fellow Indians. Waheguru bless you all. Rab rakha
Please vote for whoever you want to and leave your countrymen to vote for whoever they see fit. Yes, nice to talk about Corporate control of the Media, but please tell us who is paying your bills, since you are not sure who is paying the bills of your other journalist friends ? Every journalist believes he/she is a knight in shining armour and all their colleagues are paid stooges who dance to their masters theme. Please show some respect for your own profession which has given you a living, opportunity and space -- calling others names reflects poorly on oneself.
sabi: You said : "Modi is a crook has no ideology" Evidence and substantiation required before calling anyone a crook.You are absolutely ill informed and biased. Read the BJP or Congress manifesto. In India nobody has ideologies, We only have objectives, policies and promises, We are not pakistanis who harp on ideologies day in and day out
.If he fails to satisfy his voters for his lofty claims on economic revival he may start adventure with Pakistan,just to turn attentions, in his 2nd or third years of power. Dont bring Pakistani concepts of denialism, diversion etc here. Indians have never poked their nose into Pakistani affairs, till Pakistan started it.
Indian votes must realise anyone having his legs in two boats can never deliver.Crooks are dangerous. Mr Modi is dangerous to intruders,terrorists, troublemakers and nonstate actors. He is fine as PM for Indians. So we will elect whom we want and not whom Pakistanis prefer.
ET: Pl publish
@sabi: What is your basis for the statement that Modi is a crook? His record of governance has been judged as very transparent and has hwon several awards from UN for his transparency.
If it is a onetime riot 12 years back that you refer to, he did not start them, there is ample record that he did everything possible to stop it including asking for help from neighbouring states and army and he ensured that there were no riots in the last 12 years.
@Parvez,
Due to the deliberate effort to create fear in minorities to milk the vote bank, there certainly is unease among Muslims outside Gujarat about Modi. Those within Gujarat have his track record to ho by and voted for him in the last local elections in Gujarat.
This is the first time that a seriously tainted individual is likely to become the PM of India. Little wonder then that people are worried. In diverse India an inclination of its political leader towards a single religious culture can be diversely divisive, hurt the state and the nation and diminish the secular standing of the country. Let us hope that if elected Modi will abide by what he repeatedly said in his interview with the reps from The Hindu -" that the governments run by the constitution and not by the slogans of electioneering".
@Parvez: You are correct. Pluralism (respect for diversity) is an important aspect of Indian-ness, and there has been a relentless 12-year campaign positioning Modi as an enemy of this ideal, and thus an antithesis to the 'idea of India'. This creates unease even among apolitical people (regardless of religion) who do not have the time, resources or interest to do their own research (like @sabi), and is thus conveniently top-of-mind for those who pay regular lip-service to secularism as a necessary embellishment to their liberal credentials. What you need to understand is that hardly anyone in India is voting for Modi today based on issues like the Ram Temple; it is a positive vote for change as festering domestic problems like inflation, unemployment and sub-standard infrastructure take their toll on the common man, and because today's youth feel disheartened by the effect of India's declining growth on their own future prospects. Modi will therefore need to deliver on these aspirations to stay in the saddle.
Seems like so called third rated intellectuals are about to unemployed......desperate times demand desperate actions......
Seema, you must be living in an alternative world. We Indians are all in different plane, look. Voting for development, voting for Modi this time.
According to the author If modi wins, it will be because of 30 pc vote because 70 pc will not vote for him. If he loses it is because "everyone" stud up to fascist.
Truth is that he will be voted an Democratically , and just because you may or may not have an ideological contention with him, it does not give you the authority to subvert a democratically elected leader.
@sabi: Thank you for the warning. You can bet the farm Modi will be elected and it will be the end of being defensive when it comes to retaliating to the actions of non national and national players from your country. You will not be facing a Mrs Manmohan Singh any more.
Only a tiny minority is worried.
And then comes our Matrix heroine Seema Mustafaa in Saree defying gravity and dodging bullets against Modi and his agents. Hats off to you Seema.. plz save us.. ;)
Modi is a crook has no ideology but a strategy to get to to top post in come what may style.If he fails to satisfy his voters for his lofty claims on economic revival he may start adventure with Pakistan,just to turn attentions, in his 2nd or third years of power.Indian votes must realise anyone having his legs in two boats can never deliver.Crooks are dangerous. All the best to Indians.
Only worried people are elite class born and brought up in congress ideological world. Their lenses can not see world beyond pseudo secularism because it suited them all along.
But see country state today. After 67 year of independence, people are still fighting for their basic need. Unaccountable power is in hand of certain few likes of Gandhis, Yadavas and other political dynasties.
These elite will be happy to maintain status quo. In fact Mr Rahul Gandhi and congress government celebrates poverty. Then they dole out rice at Rs 2 per kg and say look how much I care for you. Now vote for me. Not for a moment he is ashamed or his government is ashamed that in 67year, government could not build capacity that a vast majority of people of India can buy their 2 time meal. They have to be dependent on Government.
But all these doesn't matter. They want muslims, poor hindus to remain hungry and keep voting for them. So that they can keep stashing money and talk secularism
But one thing they forgot. This is 21st centuary. 21 more days to go
Reading articles like this and listening to very articulate Indian commenters on BBC / CNN one gets the impression that everyone has a view point and quite divergent too but there also appears to be an underlying sense of unease.......now, this may be the media at work creating this or it could be a reflection of what is real on the ground. Its best to wait and see.
Tea-Sunami (tea is hot, not silent here) of Modi, the ordinary chaiwala, has rattled all so-called pseudo-secular elements. Otherwise why such a flood of pleas from these spent forces?
@Author "India's not-so-sure electorate"......
......would love to elect Modi as the next PM of India in 2014 elections, because he is known as a "decisive" leader.
@Author: New governments in Islamabad or Delhi always led to speculation in both countries about how these would impact bilateral relations: will we move forward or regress further?
Nonsense. Nobody in India cares.