India’s not-so-sure electorate

Only reason for ‘calculated’ leaks could be a BJP shot at assuaging those finding their campaign difficult to accept.

New governments in Islamabad or Delhi always led to speculation in both countries about how these would impact bilateral relations: will we move forward or regress further? This time the concerns are more, as even in India, the secular and progressive sections that comprise the wide non-BJP polity are worried about the domestic impact, let alone the international consequences of a Narendra Modi-led government in Delhi.

It is perhaps, to do with the BJP manifesto suggesting the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and the anti-Pakistan propaganda that is forming some part of the election propaganda; this has led to reports of emissaries being sent by Modi to the border state and also to the neighbouring country. In Kashmir, it turned out to be a case of a mouse that roared as the emissaries were found to be two self-styled lightweight politicians from the BJP and the Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party who had recently jumped onboard the Modi bandwagon. Clearly they were hoping to inveigle themselves with key Kashmiri leaders with an eye on the forthcoming Assembly elections. They were also hoping perhaps, if luck favoured them, to seize an early start and emerge as the conduits between a new government in Delhi and the Kashmiri separatists and others.

Similar seems to have been the case in Pakistan. Self-styled functionaries seeking to get an early foot into the India-Pakistan pie for whatever its worth, of course. Modi is in the midst of a hectic election campaign and given the tense schedule –– and the uncertainty of the Indian electorate –– he certainly does not have the time nor the interest to send out emissaries to a country that is probably last in his list of priorities. Not because it should be, but because he is an archetypal BJP/RSS leader and will not rush to improve relations with Pakistan.

The only reason behind these ‘calculated’ leaks, as they were, could be a long BJP shot at assuaging those who are finding the vitriolic, communal campaign in the country a little difficult to accept. A sort of ‘don’t worry if Modi comes to power, he will not be an unreasonable leader’ message is left sufficiently vague so as not to bother the hard constituency of the BJP and the RSS. The emissaries were certainly not real, in that they were not part of any well-thought-out effort to strike new relations at this highly uncertain stage of an election which could go in any direction.

In brief, if these emissaries actually had some BJP support at some higher level, then it was only to send signals to the fence-sitting domestic constituency and with no real interest in improving India-Pakistan relations, or in addressing the concerns of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

India is poised at a crucial juncture of her young history. And the large majority of Indians are concerned and worried. This is evident from the odd articles that do get past the corporate control of the media, the comments, the meetings, the statements and the petitions that are all making the rounds, asking people to vote for a secular, progressive India. Even Bollywood that hesitates to make a political statement has actors, directors, scriptwriters and lyricists coming out to sign a statement warning people to choose and vote carefully and to ensure that their vote strengthens secularism. Petitions and warnings are circulating online even as non- BJP political parties fight hard battles on the ground all across the country. So first, there are the agents of fascism, the corporates, and the media that are rah-rahing for a change in the Indian parliamentary democratic order. And then there are the silent majority struggling to ensure that this does not happen.

It is a tough fight as one side has the support of the country’s fourth estate as well as the moneybags, while the other side is scattered and disunited with petty egos and little to no electoral alliances. If the first wins, it will not be because its share of votes would have crossed substantially over 30 per cent, but because the 70 per cent on the other side is broken into factions and groups.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 26^th, 2014.

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