The writer is a journalist with Scroll.in in Delhi. He is a Multani from Lucknow, who finds himself trapped in the Republic of South Delhi. He tweets @DilliDurAst
The size results in fragmentation: so many parties, regions and variations. Complexity doesn’t make good copy. In the last general elections in 2009, the Indian media complained it was an issue-less election. 26/11 had happened a few months ago but the dust on that had settled down. LK Advani complained that the Congress wasn’t hanging Afzal Guru to appease Muslim voters, as if Indian Muslims give a damn about Kashmiris. Manmohan Singh was re-elected with better numbers. Credit was given largely to some economic schemes of the 2004-2009 years of Singh, especially a job scheme for the rural unemployed.
In 2004, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government was fairly popular and decided to project the nation’s economic growth as the reason why his government should be re-elected. India Shining, they said. That had the opposite effect. The Congress party turned it around and asked: aam aadmi ko kya mila? What did the ordinary Indian get from your economic growth?
In other words, the main issue in both elections was the economic well-being of the average Indian. What is it that my taxi driver, my employer, my vegetable seller, and the Indian farmer worry about the most? Kashmir? Pakistan? America? Nuclear deal? A massacre in Gujarat 14 years ago? The truth is that for most Indian voters, like most voters everywhere, the most important thing is a sense of well-being, the sense of security that they can buy their food and still have some money left to enjoy life, the ambiguous sense that their government is capable of and willing to run the state.
The second term of the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance has been more unpopular than any government in recent history. The mood in the Congress party right now is of such melancholy, it seems as if the election results are already out. The bets about the Congress party are whether it will win fewer seats than their worst performance (106 of 543) or more. I bet it will get less than 106 –– its worst performance in history.
With every passing day, the number of people who doubt Narendra Modi will be prime minister (PM) reduces. If Modi is PM, we will all say India has taken a turn for the right. That would be a half-truth. The average Indian voter doesn’t care about right and left. In Delhi, people with right-wing inclinations don’t vote for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) because the BJP leaders in the capital city-state are jokers. What voters vote for is good governance, prosperity, economic well-being and law and order. When they vote along caste or community lines, they do so because the other option discriminates against them on those lines.
Unchecked inflation, low growth, policy paralysis, scam after scam, brazenly defending the indefensible, never saying sorry, using a heavy hand where a soft hello was required, never seeming to do the right thing, doing it when it was too late –– that is what Singh’s second term has been like. In other words, a lot of people who will be voting for Narendra Modi are not people who like to see Muslims butchered. While I won’t be one of Mr Modi’s voters, I see a lot of people who say that Modi is the only option. Such is the desperate need for change; so universal is the failure of Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi this time that Modi is but the obvious alternative. Some may call it the TINA factor –– There Is No Alternative.
A dangerous fascist waiting to be PM makes this election ‘exciting’ enough, but we’ve got more. There’s a new start-up in town and it’s disrupting the game. Nobody knows how many seats the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will win –– where, why and how. But the AAP has dominated the discourse so emphatically that the BJP looks like the incumbent and the AAP looks like the opposition. The BJP’s inability to answer the AAP’s questions about its relations with India’s real ruler, Mukesh Ambani, makes it look a lot like the Congress. I can’t wait for the results!
Published in The Express Tribune, March 14th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (29)
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@water bottle: If you don't see the context then lookup "metaphor" as a figure of speech.
@Jag Nathan: "Shyam Vij, unfortunately for you, it looks more and more like Modi will be the next PM." Surely, you must be kidding! How can that be? How can Narendra Modi win without the only important vote of Shivam Vij?
Shyam Vij, unfortunately for you, it looks more and more like Modi will be the next PM.
@Sobriquet:
"How would you feel if you believed, rightly or wrongly, that you had a hoard of scorpions multiplying rapidly under your bed? Would you be comfortable sleeping in that room? "
I don't feel comfortable, 'rightly or wrongly'. but I don't see the context here.
@water bottle: How would you feel if you believed, rightly or wrongly, that you had a hoard of scorpions multiplying rapidly under your bed? Would you be comfortable sleeping in that room?
@Waqar Qureshi:
"I must appreciate your skills to dream"
Dreaming is not a skill. In fact very very very little has been understood about dreams by the psychiatric and scientific community.
However, I wonder which part of my comment seemed like a dream to you!!
What is it that my taxi driver, my employer, my vegetable seller, and the Indian farmer worry about the most? Kashmir? Pakistan? America? Nuclear deal? A massacre in Gujarat 14 years ago?
As a voter myself, I can tell you the top 5 reasons I and others I know care about:
Policy paralysis. Economic mismanagement. Poor governance. A massacre in UP less than a year ago. Pervasive corruption (3G scam, Coal scam, CWG scam, etc.)
Is there any reason why you are quoting issues that affected voters 5, 10 years ago?
The average Indian voter doesn’t care about right and left.
I disagree with you. The Indian voter is firmly dead center. The Left has never been successful in making a run for the country. BJP is succeeding this time because it is no farther to the center than the Congress.
Some may call it the TINA factor
TINA was in the 80s when I had to vote for the same set of fools every time. There was no viable opposition to the Congress except for personality-driven regional parties. Now there is the BJP, AAP and of course, NOTA. Make no mistake, NOTA is bound to make an impact in the psyche of candidates in a lot of constituencies.
In Delhi, people with right-wing inclinations don’t vote for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) because the BJP leaders in the capital city-state are jokers.
Most people outside Delhi will say that those in Delhi themselves are jokers. They feel that Delhi represents India. Once every 5 years, they need to be reminded that there is a country whose people vote for its leaders and who provide the vast sums of money to run the capital.
As an aside, it is apparent that the BJP is not bothered about AAP. This can be seen by the fact that Modi never brings up AAP. AAP has been relegated to a political side-show driven by a leader who is as large as MGR or NTR.
@George Perin: Dear I don't know in which world you live in that you term useless the political exercise of 1.2 billion people. Yes a lot of Indians would be poor and malnourished, but the other part of the population, the great Indian middle class, at around 300million, is at par with the population of entire USA. And it is this middle class, among the 800 million voters that will decide the fate of the nation. And this is not an exercise in futile. Time and again people have voted out corrupt and weak governments and supported strong ones, as you can see from the state elections of Karnataka, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh etc. Furthermore I would associate the cause of rise of Narendra Modi among middle class not due to his criminal past, but because of his governance record in his home state Gujarat, where GDP growth is seen to be higher than the country's average. Also he has refrained from using his hardline hindutva thoughts anywhere in his campaign. And of the importance of India that you have spoken of, Indians will and have voted for development. India is the 10th largest country in the world by nominal GDP and 19th largest exporter. Its an important ally in the south asian region and a great economic and cultural hub, which I think are more important contributions than taking part in track and field events.
India is not going to turn right, it is going to turn further right.
@Author, One of the important undergoing change in this election is the demand of transparency. This is happening first time. First time the issue of election funding has been raised which is very important factor in the corruption apart from personal greed. Let this voice for transparency grow day by day. We have exciting time ahead. -Pravin
India is not some trader Baniya community in Delhi.India is not Delhi lol, AAP stands no chance outside India's most underdeveloped City.Black Flags in Mumbai, Police Blockade in Gujarat for Kejriwal,Zero acceptance in Chennai, Kolkata, Banglaore and Southern States, Zero acceptance in North East India etc etc.You really cant compare Kejri with Modi, but agree.AAP can cause further split of votes.But I dont see it as a huge challenge for the next government.Kashmiris are standing with Modi - Surprising!!!! - PDP to be specific.Its like this : Muslims want to become Hindus now, when a strong Hindu ruler has risen.See, religion is all about power.
You say that most people think of BJP as the incumbent and AAP as the opposition. This might have been a true statement if you referred to "most' Indians in the large metros of India in January. But a lot of water has flowed in the Yamuna since then. Except for people like you who want to clutch at any non BJP option, very few people take AAP seriously now.
Further you refer to the massacre in Gujarat in 2002- well it was not a massacre, it was a communal riot in which people of both sides were unnecessarily and unfortunately killed. This was in a state which has had over a dozen communal riots since 1947 - during which Congress was at helm. What Modi can legitimately be credited with is keeping such a communally sensitive state free from riots for 12 years. An example of massacre is what happened in 1984 and it wasn't BJP that was in charge then.
Finally, you correctly surmised that people care aout bread and butter issues. For that job creation is a must and wild unsubstantiated allegations against the largest industrial group in India does not help. BJP is doing the right thing by not giving credence to unsubstantiated allegations by Kejriwal. The last i checked India"s legal system works on the principle of innocent until proven guilty. I do not believe that has changed.
When a lefty or commie runs out of logical arguments he ends up calling the other fellow a fascist. I've been to Gujrat a few times in the last four years and every time I found things even better than before. People were going about their business and hardly anyone seemed to notice there's even a government. If that's what they call fascism then I'm all for it. BTW the old bogeyman RSS tried its level best in the last elections to get Modi defeated.
As for the new bogeyman Mukesh Ambani, if he's in fact the real ruler of India like Kejriwal and his chelas say, then why on earth he wants a powerful ruler? The old set up of Sonia, Manmohan and corrupt cabinet would suit him perfectly.
And on the topic of fascists, when Kejriwal gets angry he looks exactly like Hitler. Old Adolf too used well known guys like Hindenburg, was a cool liar and was impatient with his limited powers.
I had said this before and ET had blocked it for unknown reasons.
This has to be said. People need to know it and discuss it.
Indian political analysts say that the minorities, especially Muslims vote for congress out of insecurity. Because they are afraid of Hindus.
This is true.
But there is another open secret that no one talks about. A lot of Hindus also vote for BJP out of insecurity. Because they are afraid of Indian Muslims.
Congress is seen as soft on terror, to appease Muslims (which is not true though). And when Hindus see the incidences like Gujrat violence which was started by Muslims or UP riots which were again started by Muslims (High court has indicted 14 Muslim leaders of UP for inciting violence) or when Hindus hear the speeches of Akbaruddin Owaisi or when Hindus see Muslims support for Afzal Guru (even though his trial was a disgrace and unjust) or when they look at disproportionately high population growth rate of Muslims, Hindus get insecure.
Many Hindus who are staunch supporters of BJP, are so because they are afraid of Muslims. They feel insecure in their own country.
Thank God, It's Modi. Progress, Peace and Prosperity is coming back. Thank you, OM NAMO NAMO NAMO
Poor Shiyam Vij is all excited about the world's largest election. He forgets that it is just a mechanical exercise in which 1) half the voters are near illiterates 2) they have had no part in selecting the candidates, one is criminally tainted, the other is an appalling mediocrity, his sole qualification being his connection with the Gandhis.
More important, it makes no difference to the rest of the world whether India votes or not. The enduring image is of a very poor country, with malnourished children, abysmal hygiene and sanitation and resulting high incidence of disease. A country which plays no international sports (track and field), which invents nothing and contributes little intellectually. With poor governance and rampant corruption.
In the light of all this, why is India wasting millions on just the mechanics of an election with no substance? With a third of MPs with criminal connections or convictions, why pretend India is a democracy?
Narendra Modi can never ever become a PM in secular India. The writing on the wall is loud and clear for a variety of reasons. BJP is a urban based party. The party structure is firmly solid in Hindi heartland I.e., northern India. Regional political parties are rock solid in their respective states. With Congress on decline due to high prIce rise & corruption, the outcome of the election verdict would be fractured. Regional parties would board the BJP ship minus Narendra Modi - the most hated political figure by Indian Muslims. Regional parties won't dare antagonize Muslims. Modi's whole political campaign is being run by big corporate houses like Ambani & Adani. Print & Electronic Media are running paid news, paid poll surveys of Narendra Modi through corporate money to generate a fake wave in his favour to mould public opinion and reap electoral benefit. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) a new political outfit has spoiled the plan of Narendra Modi to be PM. Despite media blackout and negative, malicious, sinister campaign being run by electronic media at the instance of Narendra Modi through corporate money against AAP, Modi's media managers have remained unsuccessful in taming AAP's surge. It's not important how many seats AAP will get, but surely it has damaged Modi's image & its vote.
Just got excited about the Indian electionssss!!!! Still do not want Modi to win though! Khuda Khair kure!
haha - good light reading. Donot forget the other pretenders to the throne - Mamata, Nitish, Mulayam, Jaya.....each staging their own antics and trying to convince us why they should be PM!
Nice to know you've conceded finally.
Agree an average Indian is more interested in economic prosperity and Middle class is worried about inflation eating up their higher wages. I still admire India for remaining true to democracy for the last 60 plus years. What I admire more is that although the gap between rich and poor has widened and there are over 40% children in India who are under nourished and millions who do not have a place to live, there is progress in industrialization and India is 7th largest industrial power in the world. So it is good news and bad at the same time. Seeing problems of immense importance, it is great that nobody (army boots) tries to disturb democracy. I wish Pakistan could learn a bit from its neighbor on this asppect, if nothing else.