Trade figures: China posts unexpected trade deficit

Analysts not concerned as demand picks up.

BEIJING:

China recorded an unexpected trade deficit of $22.98 billion in February, official figures showed Saturday, with authorities blaming the country’s holiday season for the weak performance. The figure compared with a surplus of $14.8 billion in the same month last year, and a median forecast of an $11.9 billion surplus in a poll of 13 economists by Dow Jones Newswires.

Exports fell 18.1% to $114.10 billion, while imports were up 10.1% to $137.08 billion during the month, which included most of the Lunar New Year holiday, the General Administration of Customs said.

“The Spring Festival factor caused sharp fluctuations in the monthly growth rate as well as the monthly deficit,” Customs said in a statement accompanying the data. Chinese traders followed their “business habit” of bringing forward exports ahead of the holiday, and focusing on imports immediately afterwards, it added.

Analysts played down the deficit − China’s first in 11 months − saying improving foreign demand bodes well for the country’s trade this year. “Generally we are rather optimistic about this year’s trade outlook,” Zhou Hao, a Shanghai-based economist with ANZ said.

The surprise deficit was probably a result of government efforts to curb speculative capital inflows aiming to profit from the appreciation of China’s yuan currency, he said.

Early last year unusual swings in trade figures were seen as driven by over-invoicing by exporters and importers in a bid to disguise capital flows, a practice the government is believed to have cracked down on later. 

Published in The Express Tribune, March 9^th, 2015.

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