Imminent disaster

Whilst it is impossible to forecast earthquakes with any degree of certainty, it is possible to get an insight into future major movements in the landscape in Gilgit-Baltistan. There are many ‘slide areas’ along the Karakoram Highway (KKH) north of Chilas, some of which are active year-round. One such movement produced the very large displacement at Attabad four years ago, and now another appears to be imminent, with possibly even greater consequences than that of the Attabad slide. The Miacher valley is 70km along the road from Gilgit and the cracks that have been obvious there for many years are observed to be widening. If the slope falls — and there is every expectation that it will — the results are likely to be catastrophic.

The Hunza River will be blocked and there will be flooding of villages and land upstream towards Aliabad. Whole settlements are expected to be drowned. The spring thaw at the end of February will lubricate the debris between the surface and lower strata, friction will decay and movement will become inevitable. A lake would form above Miacher caused by the natural dam and this, in turn, may fail after 18 months with further destruction downstream also inevitable if it does. Up to 40kms of the Karakoram Highway may be flooded. There is also concern about the cracks on the north side of the river that are moving as well. Fixed cameras monitor the situation hourly. The local administration is alert to the danger and 25 families have been moved to less dangerous areas, and a road from Minapin to Miacher is being rerouted but there is no escaping the inevitable.

The Attabad Lake is now 20km long and two km wide and its formation has severely disrupted the upgrade of the KKH. The route of the Hunza River runs along the fault line between two highly active tectonic plates, rendering the KKH vulnerable for much of its length. It is imperative that timely preparations be made ahead of any earthquake to prevent loss of life.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 5^th,  2014.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.