Looming Iran strike

Iran's FM visit Pakistan amid tensions with Israel, signaling potential retaliation and regional political realignment

Iranian foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi visited Pakistan earlier in the week. The visit comes at a critical juncture in the Middle East's geopolitics. Although the official press release stated that the purpose of the visit was to emphasise the need for improving coordination with Islamabad to strengthen border security and prevent cross-border terrorist attacks, the real reason was perhaps different. The visit comes after the October 26 Israeli counter-strike against Iran in the ongoing war against the Axis of Resistance and Palestinian factions.

Following the attack, Tehran vowed to "certainly" respond to Israel's latest attack in a "well-measured" and "well-calculated" manner and increased diplomatic efforts in the region. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also promised a "crushing response". Araghchi's Islamabad visit appears to be a part of a broader strategy to garner regional support for its political stance and also in preparation for another retaliatory strike against Israel.

Iran's foreign policy is shaped by its desire to challenge Israeli influence and power in the Levant and strengthen its diplomatic relations with other regional states. Araghchi's regional visits, it seems, are also aimed at presenting a unified front against Israeli actions, including but not limited to the current campaign of genocide in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza.

Pakistan has long supported the Palestinian cause for a separate state, and this stance fits well into Tehran's recent diplomatic moves.

Islamabad also condemned the Israeli attack on Iran; hence, the recent visit is understood to have come in the context of further shoring up diplomatic support should a wider conflict break out in the region. As neither side is willing to back down, escalation is most likely guaranteed.

In order to maintain deterrence, the Iranians will strike again. If the country does not retaliate, it would open the path to further aggression by the Israeli regime. There are also hints that the next strike by the Iranian missile forces would be even more devastating than the April and October attacks as the equation has now changed after the death of at least four Iranian military officers.

With Washington undergoing a transition of power after Trump's win, all the pieces are now in place for further escalation in the region. Peace can only be achieved in the region if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, which seems highly unlikely given Tel Aviv's genocidal rhetoric.