Unrealistic solutions?

It seems that the threat of US sanctions has brought the IP pipeline project to a halt.

We understand why the government is excited about the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline. The project makes perfect economic sense. It takes a surplus of gas from one country and exports it at a highly competitive price to a neighbouring country that is in desperate need for it. That the IP pipeline would add to Pakistan’s capacity to produce affordable electricity from gas-fired power plants without having to crack down on gas theft is no doubt an added attraction to the government. But excitement is no excuse for getting carried away. Shortly after the interim deal between Iran and the US was announced, Petroleum Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi declared that the IP pipeline would be completed within months. Then, in an indication that the government had seemingly realised that the pipeline was not a foregone conclusion despite progress in relations between the US and Iran, it was reported that Pakistan was considering seeking an undertaking from Iran that the project proceeds would not be used for nuclear proliferation. Mr Abbasi then travelled to Tehran and it was agreed upon that work on the pipeline would be speeded up. The reality of sanctions has now come down hard and it seems that the threat of US sanctions has brought the project to a halt.

It seems that far too much of what passes for energy policy in Islamabad relies on assumptions and numbers that are highly questionable. The IP pipeline is only one example. The second is Thar’s coal, which has yet to provide fuel to produce any electricity, despite having been discovered over two decades ago. Both of these are examples of resources that are available to Pakistan only in the very uncertain future. Yet, government officials always seem to cite both of these sources as solutions to Pakistan’s immediate energy crisis. This approach is naive at best and dangerously delusional at worst. It would behoove the government to avoid sounding unrealistic about so pressing an issue of national concern.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 16^th, 2013.

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