The writer is a consulting editor with The Statesman and writes for several newspapers in India
The votes have been cast and the results are awaited. The exit pollsters, of course, are out with their predictions giving sufficient fodder for the 24-hour news channels to chew on. There is little attempt by the media to judge the situation for itself, by sending out reporters into the field, and making sense of the nonsense that seems to have replaced the business of news gathering entirely. The reporters no longer mix with the common man and try to find answers to basic questions as to why the polling was so high in states like Delhi, who were the new voters, why were they so mobilised, and then, if possible, who did they vote for. This would reveal trends and give an insight into the voters’ mind that would prove valuable in analysing the election results.
But no, this is no longer how news is collected and understood. We want quick fix solutions, and in this desperate competitiveness, want answers even before the votes have been counted. Any serious journalist will point out that all that is possible, before the counting, is a sense of the trends, the voting patterns of certain sections like the youth, who seem to have taken enthusiastic part in polling in Delhi, and a general idea of the issues that worked, and those that did not. As a result, the predictions in closely fought contests such as Delhi and Chhattisgarh, the margins of error remain real, but instead of warning of this and discussing the reasons for the close contest, the media takes the easy way out by presenting pre-poll results as a virtual fait accompli.
It is important, thus, to point out a few trends that seem to be emerging from the elections at this stage. One, while BJP leader Narendra Modi is the talisman of his party, it is still not certain whether he can claim this space insofar as the people of India are concerned. Despite his whirlwind, highly publicised campaigns across the states, he has not been able to generate a wave where all else is vanquished, as clearly the BJP was hoping for. The contests remain real and fairly tough in states like Delhi and Chhattisgarh, with the Congress registering a mark even in Madhya Pradesh (MP) where the BJP seems to be ahead. It is also clear that the state leadership counts for a great deal, and if the voters stay with the BJP in MP, it will be largely due to the work done by their Chief Minister Shiv Raj Chouhan there. In Rajasthan, the vote seems to be favouring BJP’s Vasundhara Raje who, by all accounts, has been camping there, and working hard to swing the tide against incumbent Ashok Gehlot in her favour. Modi might have been an add-on, but certainly not the vote swinger in these states. This becomes apparent when the answer to the question: would the BJP have secured MP and Rajasthan without Modi, becomes a ‘yes it would have’. More so because of the inability of the Congress to provide an effective opposition in the five years of BJP rule in MP, and the failure of the party to provide good governance in Rajasthan.
Chhattisgarh seemed at one stage to be favouring the Congress, according to reports from journalists who had actually travelled in the state. The neck-and-neck battle is registered by the exit polls and even if the BJP carries the day at the end, a close fight will again stand testimony to the fact that Modi was not able to generate a wave in the party’s favour in this state as well.
Delhi became the most interesting battlefield in these polls, simply because it broke away, for the first time since its inception as a state, from the Congress versus BJP pattern. The emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been particularly significant for a city that has always decried third alternatives, with the middle and upper classes actually rooting for a two-party system at the centre. The scepticism, with which Arvind Kejriwal and his ragtag band of supporters were regarded by the city, seemed to turn into overwhelming support as polling day approached. The BJP and the Congress, which were dismissive of the new party, started taking it seriously when it became apparent that it was eating into both their votes. The slum dwellers moved away from the Congress towards the AAP while the youth embraced the new party with visible enthusiasm. This became a groundswell on the day before polling, making it clear that the party was going to be a major factor in the polls as the support had increased, and not shifted as many had expected.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 7th, 2013.
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COMMENTS (10)
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I think this article is more suited for publishing in an Indian newspaper.
However everyone is trying to keep Modi away, he is there in every journalist column mostly on wrong reasons. But he is becoming a factor to reckon with in Indian politics, no matter how much ever his detractors are trying to fix him in some case or the other before general elections in 2014.
I'm confused. The author says that BJP has better chance of winning in the states going to polls. But then tries her best to make sure that the credit shouldn't go to Modi.
The author claims that modern reporting in India is just nonsense that is collected as quick as possible without any rhyme, reason or responsibility on part of the reporters and analysts who do these activities. She also claims that there is no cohesive data collection ,verification by the media. I must admit that there is some truth to what she says, given how "out there" a lot of the news on Indian news channels are. My dear author.....aren't you doing exactly what you are accusing others of doing. Unless you have your empirical evidence tucked away somewhere in this article to back your claims and ramblings. Everyone have a fluffy day.
The purpose of this article seems to be discount the Modi factor in the results for Rajasthan, MP, Chattisgarh and Delhi. All I can say is that I am glad he didn't visit Mizoram.
But you are wrong. Modi's strategy wasn't entirely to enthuse the local populace to vote for the BJP. It was to stop the local BJP workers from being at cross purposes. Nowhere is it more evident than in Rajasthan. Modi has been a vote-swinger there because he got the BJP workers to align with the notion of Vasundhara Raje as CM when there are other contenders.
Looks like you and other columnists are hoping for an AAP win in Delhi and I can tell you being far, far away for Delhi that you are in for a major disappointment. Indians do not support parties espousing a single cause.
Whenever there is a surge in the percentage of voters, it is mainly due to anti incumbency. This is precisely what happened in Delhi. people were desperate to gt rid of the Congress and a lot of people voted for the safest alternative. AAP is a bit uncertain hence a lot of votes went to the BJP were basically anti Congress votes rather than pro BJP.
Please do some research and not take the shortcut of passing biased opinion as analysis.
Your opening criticism of the media seems harsh. All I gathered from this bit of complicated reporting is that results are still not in and Modi has not proved as ' hot ' as he's made out to be and things are all up in air with no clear direction established. As a distant observer this was all pretty tepid and uninteresting.
the writer is closely related to TEHELKA so one can understand the anti BJP stand.........the writer didnot complain during exit polls of Karnataka............
the writer basically means heads i win and tales you loose........if BJP looses its Modi's loss if it wins it is due to CMs........
When BJP loses polls there is no Modi wave. When BJP wins polls there is also no Modi wave because local leaders did the good work. lol This author seems to be deluding herself, Congress will be shown the door. You will know what is Modi wave after the results are out. Meanwhile the author can dream whatever she wants.