The deed has been done. The US-Iran deal has been agreed upon and like most international pacts, this one, too, has the power to change the course of the world as we know it today. While Pakistan continues to struggle with its demons of corruption, terrorism and strife, as well as its delusions of being strategically important to the US, Iran has gone ahead and mended its 30-year long, animosity-laden relationship with the US under the new leadership of President Hassan Rowhani.
What this new development means for Pakistan is anybody’s guess. The US-Iran alliance will provide the US with an alternative route to Afghanistan for Nato supplies, thereby undermining Pakistan’s to-date strategic importance in the region. Moreover, access to Iran will allow the US the use of the country’s Chah Bahar port and provide an alternative to the Gwadar port in Pakistan. Of course, more progressive policies under President Rowhani can also lead to stronger alliances between India, Afghanistan and Iran, thereby leaving Pakistan out in the cold.
The oil and gas reserves in Iran should be factored into the equation as well, and this can lead to a shift in the focus of US foreign policy, from being Middle Eastern-centric to Central Asian-centric, with Iran being at the centre. This can lead to further disintegration in the US-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan equation.
Iran’s inflexibility to date and the consequent sanctions imposed upon it, has forced the country to improve its infrastructure and organisations from within. Not only does this make the new Iran — the one that is open to trade and contracts with the world — stronger and able to sit fairly at the negotiations table, it also makes the country more preferred as a trading and investment partner than say, Pakistan.
Pakistan, on the other hand, by being on the receiving end of endless streams of ‘aid’ and by allowing Washington to regularly violate its sovereignty, simply does not have the ability to be on an equal footing at the negotiating table.
Perhaps it is time to step down from our high horse of being a ‘nuclear power’ and face the harsh reality that is likely to unfold.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 1st, 2013.
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This "strategic importance" only existed in the minds of our delusional armchair and retired generals.