Analysis: Beginning of the end for TTP?

Hakimullah perished when a government team was about to leave for Waziristan to have ‘peace’ talks with the TTP.

Hopefully by the time these lines are printed, the cloud of uncertainty surrounding the reported death of TTP chief Hakimullah Mehsud would have cleared. If confirmed, his death will have far-reaching consequences.

There could be a violent backlash in the form of reprisal attacks, anywhere in the country, particularly in Peshawar. However, the TTP may not be able to launch big attacks immediately because of the irreparable loss it has suffered. However, if the group still stages large-scale attacks, it would be an indicator of its existing strength and viability. Failure to do so would signal a beginning of the end for the terrorist outfit.

Decapitation or the strategy of killing top commanders of terrorist groups is quite important from the counter-terrorism standpoint. But considering the loose structure, vague ideology and motivation of the TTP, this strategy may not

work. The TTP is unlike traditional terrorist groups, like say the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which more often than not is separatist in character.

Hakimullah’s death will also be highly consequential for the so-called peace talks between the government and the TTP. In the short run, the prospect of talks would seem to have vanished altogether.

But as time passes by, factionalism may increase inside the TTP and the Punjabi Taliban, led by Asmatullah Muawiyah, would gain strength. Muawiyah had welcomed the offer of peace talks by the government without Hakimullah’s prior consent, prompting the latter to expel him from TTP ranks.

Reportedly, however, TTP factions in favour of talks outnumber those opposed to negotiations. This may be the reason why Hakimullah himself gave up his usual recalcitrant posture a few days back and showed his willingness to hold talks with the government. Hakimullah’s elimination will further factionalise TTP, most of which ultimately may agree to hold talks.

The timing of the drone attack on Hakimullah is extremely important. He perished when a government team was about to leave for Waziristan to have ‘peace’ talks with the TTP. It seems the US deliberately chose such an occasion to eliminate the TTP chief so that any peace process could be torpedoed. At the time of his presumed death, Hakimullah was said have been consulting his close confidantes about how to engage the government.

On America’s part, such a move makes sense because if the TTP enters a peace deal with the government, their entire militant potential would be diverted toward US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan. At a time when the US forces are increasingly pulling out of Afghanistan, the escapades of the TTP could be a significant hindrance to a safe withdrawal.

Irrespective of the anti-drone public opinion in Pakistan, the elimination of Hakimullah yet again proves the efficacy of the drones in the war against terror. Hakimullah’s death may be a setback for peace in the immediate future. However, in the long run, it may prove to be a huge opportunity of diluting the TTP.

But all this would depend on our leadership and the strategy it devises to counter the threat. Quality of leadership is one of the key determinants of national power and the lack of quality in the leadership has cost the country dearly in its war against terror. According to an international terrorism expert Barrebi, dealing with religious terrorism can be confusing, since it is difficult to know whether terrorist organisations, which on the face of it are considered religious, are using religion to attract an audience while primarily motivated by secular goals. This needs to be understood by our leadership.

(The writer is an independent analyst who holds a PhD in International Relations, specialising in terrorism, counterterrorism and governance)

Published in The Express Tribune, November 2^nd, 2013.