Moving forward from the flood – I

It is hard not to think of this summer’s flood as a watershed moment for Pakistan. A giant hand seems to have hit the reset button on 60 years of development in this country. In every respect, the way things were done no longer seems adequate. What we do from here on has to be radically different from the actions and decisions that have brought us to this state of aggravated devastation.

The flood was initiated by an exceptional, but by no means a one-time, act of nature. In just few days in late July, extensive areas in the north-west of Pakistan received more than their total annual rainfall. A massive flood surge was inevitable. However, the Indus is one of the largest rivers in the world and should have been able to handle the unprecedented flood. This is where the water management infrastructure, built on the Indus system in the last several decades, should have played a critical role. We are only beginning to understand the extent to which the extensive human interventions in the Indus flood plain prevented the river from absorbing the floods and in fact aggravated matters to an unprecedented degree.

The flood surge had barely smashed through Attock when numerous voices, including those of politicians, journalists and prominent citizens started clamouring for more dams and other water management projects as a means to control or avert future floods. Specifically, the emphasis has been on the immediate construction of the contentious Kalabagh Dam (KBD). There have been numerous public statements, talk shows and signature drives to push for the early construction of the said dam. In fact, even the Supreme Court has been petitioned to order the immediate construction of this dam. The debate over the KBD continues, but there has been no assessment of the efficacy of the project nor has its impact been viewed holistically.

Big dams have always been on the national development agenda but we have not built a single major dam on the Indus River system in over four decades. Every government embraces Wapda’s dam-centric agenda but fails to realise that dam-building is not simply a technical engineering matter but also a complex political and environmental issue that requires a fair assessment of everyone’s concerns. Paraphrasing Clemenceau, one might say that dam-building is too serious a matter to be left only to engineers. The myriad issues that are raised by the construction of water management infrastructure are too complex to discuss here but let us address two questions for now. What has the river management infrastructure done to alter the Indus River, and will future dams contain the force of the Indus in flood? Proceeding with the construction of any new dams or other water management infrastructure, even rebuilding the damaged levees, without considering the impact on the environment, both human and natural, will be like throwing oil on a raging fire.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 12^th, 2010.