Let us stop looking at China through the eyes of our 1960s’ generation. It is no more a country fenced in under a bamboo curtain looking out only through a narrow Pakistani window. It has gone global since 1979. Today, China is an economic giant, second only to the US in size. With India alone, the size of its annual trade is $60 billion, expected to reach $100 billion soon against an annual trade of no more than about $12 billion with Pakistan and anticipating no dramatic change for the better in the near future. Against this backdrop, when one describes the Pakistan-China relationship as being higher than Himalayas, deeper than oceans and sweeter than honey, it sounds more like a boring cliche. Of course, this description could be true to some extent if applied to our strategic relationship with China. But strategic relations without the underpinning of strong economic ties have been known to have withered away when either of the two partners would, dictated by changing self-interests, develop new or mutually opposing strategic interests. That this has not happened to the Pakistan-China relationship so far is no guarantee that it would never happen. So, to avert that eventuality, we need to start focusing vigorously, without losing any more time, on attracting as much Chinese investment as possible in the manufacturing sectors, which have become economically unviable in China because of rising labour costs in that country.
The way the decades-long Pentagon-GHQ strategic relationship, sans any significant trade or investment ties, has gone into a tailspin in recent years reinforces this argument. Had these relations been buttressed by meaningful bilateral economic cooperation rather than keeping them solely dependent on defence cooperation they would, perhaps, have survived the recent widening of the trust deficit between the two, with Washington and Islamabad suspecting each other’s Afghan endgame intentions. So, let us also stop looking at the US through the eyes of our Cold War generation. Superpowers don’t have friends. They have clients. If we don’t wish to remain a client of the US anymore, we better not be on its wrong side as well. Let us not try playing games with it, like using the China option to neutralise US influence in the region or using the Afghan Taliban in our ‘custody’ and our access to the inaccessible-to-the-world Mullah Omar to play the spoiler in the Afghan endgame. In the first place, China would never go that far for our sake. Secondly, without the assistance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which the US would see to it would not be forthcoming this time around, there is no future for a Talibanised Afghanistan. Also, no one in the neighbourhood, including China, Pakistan, Iran or the Central Asian countries, would feel secure with the Taliban back in Kabul.
So, the best option for Pakistan is to remain relevant in the endgame, not by being a US client or being a spoiler but by being a pragmatic facilitator in the global efforts to restore peace and stability to Afghanistan through an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process. The signals coming from Washington are very clear. The US wants to give India a role in the post-withdrawal Afghanistan. That is, perhaps, why US Secretary of State John Kerry visited New Delhi last month and currently, the US Vice-President, Joe Biden, is visiting India. Both have avoided Pakistan. We had only a low-level US official visiting us in recent weeks in the person of Af-Pak US representative James Dobbins. So, pragmatism further dictates that we stop wasting our breath resisting India’s entry into the Afghan endgame. India has galloped way away from Pakistan economically, enhancing the asymmetry already existing between our two countries. Its economic ties with the sole superpower, the US, and the emerging Asian superpower, China, have expanded the vested interests of the two in New Delhi’s political well-being. Let us profit from the emerging situation by enhancing our own economic ties with India without, of course, giving up our historic positions on bilateral disputes. By the way, nothing and nobody can undo the geographical, cultural and ethnic ties that exist between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is a gift of nature. So, as a first step, let us offer MFN status to India and follow up by providing a New Delhi transit trade facility to Afghanistan and beyond. This will also guarantee that India, in its own economic interests, would ensure peace in Pakistan by keeping RAW on a leash.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 24th, 2013.
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The amount of positive comments by Indians evidence enough why no one in Pakistan take ET and its editorial seriously :P
Foreign policy of any nation can never be static or confined to fixed parameters. There are no doubt broad guidelines that govern a foreign policy which undergo modifications, amendments and changes depending on the changing political and strategic conditions of a nation. During the late forties and fifties right upto the early nineties that had been the period of the Cold War when the foreign policy of most nations was affiliated with either one of the two power blocs the CENTO and COMECON with a few exceptions who were a part of the Non-Aligned group of nations. If analysed in depth every group consisted of member nations that shared polarities and leanings based on their political, economic and strategic interests. The 'Two Giants'; USA & USSR; of that period had ensured a strict control over the member nations which had been an open secret. With the end of the Cold War and the beginning of a world that was turning multipolar a visible change has occurred with regard to alliances and diplomatic relationships. There are ongoing transitions within nations that had experienced authoritarian regimes during the past towards democratisation. Thus the Geo-strategic and political interests of every nation have begun to change so also has the need to review the nation's foreign policy. This is a universal phenomena and holds true across the globe. In case of South Asia wherein The Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Republic of India have been the major players besides the other nations and their diplomatic relationship plays an influential role in maintaining the balance in power in the region hence a cordial and amicable relationship needs to be further developed. There is no doubt that Indo-Pak relations are undergoing a positive and constructive change which has been an encouraging development of recent times besides a growing trust that has been able to reduce the element of antipathy between the two neighbours. The United States of America off course has been treating Asia and the nations of this continent as business clients and hence a need for the Asian countries to unite as a confederation becomes essential. Sino-Indo-Pak relationship can play an influential role in this regard provided cooperation from nations like Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the two Korea too is available. This exercise of framing the Asian Confederation out of this Asian Fraternity can be time taking and not an easy task nevertheless the beginnings must be made and the time has come for it. Pakistan and China share a relationship and Sino-Indian relationship too has its own parameters which now need to develop on tripartite lines. Asia has issues that pertain to not very cordial relationships between neighbouring countries. Also, the geographical and ethnic diversity of this continent furthers complicates the very idea of a Fraternity. However the problems have to be handled by the nations of Asia themselves rising above the rigid paradigms of patriotism which has been at times more negative based on distrust and antipathy. A review of the foreign policy with a new look is the only way that there can be peace and progress not just in one particular nation but the entire continent that is Asia. Foreign policy needs to be perceived in a new perspective not just by Pakistan or India but the entire Asia.
Dear Mr. Ziauddin: It is articles like this that make me a frequent visitor to ET, and more important, convey hope that there are people in high places in Pakistan who are truly concerned with Pakistan's welfare and role as a peaceful nation within the international community. I am struck by the learned tenor of your statements. You have used measured prose to clearly state what every well-meaning person has long surmised: Without Pakistan-Indian unity, all foreign policy directives will fall on its face. Any policy that secures temporary advantages for either nation-without taking long-term joint benefits for both countries into account, will be built on a foundation of sand. Mr. Nawab Sharif has instinctively realized this, first during pre-Kargil days, and now in his stint as a PM. But he has to pull along a nation that has been indoctrinated with anti-Indian propaganda, to the point where power circles refuse to concede their narrow benefits for Pakistan's strategic gains. While India has its weak points-its squabbling politicos, its endemic corruption and tendency to blow hot and cold on any issue-it is still an elephant in the room as China is increasing coming to realize. Its middle class has reached a size and maturity that focuses the attention of international business- US, EU, China and Japan- and it will not be possible to ignore its economic expansion. Pakistan's location as India's neighbor should be used as a blessing rather than a source of historic confrontation. Indo-Pakistani entente will be a game breaker as it will galvanize the economic growth of the Asian subcontinent, pulling all nations between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific in its wake! The time is NOW for responsible people from both countries-and I have met many of them personally-to set aside their squabbles and pursue joint policies for the growth of the common man in both countries. I am heartened that this article points to sensible steps to achieve these goals, and persuade people in the Establishment to back these initiatives. Thank you, Mr Editor! RR Iyer New York
You pakis are confused nation. May be next article against india. First of all set up ur point of view that whether being friend of india or else? @alex: great logic.
@alex:
good thnkng and wild speulations but without the use of Hagels specuative logic.Pakistan army did once stop the jehadi mrch towards the Moghul capital and the Taj Mahal. Are they going to succeed the second time? I guess not.
Rex Minor
one basic principle of international law is-NATIONS HAVE NO PERMANENT FRIENDS,ONLY PERMANENT INTERESTS. CHINA,S INTERESTS ARE-1)trade route through gwadar port. 2)control of islamic terror in xinjiang by using ,convincing or bullying pak to end its support. 3)use pak,as& when necessary to harass india,giving tidbits to pak& long term losses,while protecting its own resources& economy 4)its own proxy war against the united states. indians permanent interests have been taken care of by creation of pakistan,by loyal ex-congressman,mr. mohd. ali jinnah, which prevents afghan invaders like mohd. ghazni& mohd.ghori's of modern era from entering core of india directly.they now pursue their hobbies in karachi.peace be on the quaid-e-azam. iqbalbhai,you may rest in peace,your india is still- saare jahaan se achcha...... HAPPY RAMADAN or is it RAMZAN. ID MUBARAK in advance, great job alibhai&iqbalbhai
Excellent article. Unfortunately Pakistan's duplicitous reputation may make meaningful change in foreign policy difficult to implement - neither USA, India or Afghanistan is going to believe you have suddenly become someone they can rely on.
A nice write up, intellectual vision but then ending in a globule. One can really feel sorry for the t author who recommends ties with he enemy.
Rex Minor
Time Tide & Trade Pathways dont wait for Pakistani Govt. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ "providing a New Delhi transit trade facility to Afghanistan and beyond"" India has already building a viable option: thru the Iranian island of ChauBahar to reach inside Afghanistan.
Very sensible and thought out article. Indeed Pakistan has to come to terms with its size and economic situation. China and USA will continue diplomatic lip service with Pakistan, but no one will climb the high mountains nor reach and explore the deeper than oceans love affair. Fact is that the poor cannot sit on the high table with the rich. Thuis is equally true of countries and Nations. To start rebuilding itself, Pakistan must get over its intense mad obsession with Kashmir and India, and start by cleaning its back yard of jihadis and its state sponsored ,non state terrorists.
@ Sajjad: So, India has no role in Afghanistan but Pakistan does? What about the much famed "sovereignty" principle Pakistan applies for itself? Isn't it for Afghanistan to decide?
Unfortunately I do not see a change in our policy yet. We're not challenging these Wahhabi/Salafi/Deoband/Sunni extremist militants, as we've ceded all reason and logic, as well as the narrative and discourse on what constitutes a religious state to them.
It be huge if we could change our brainwashed propagandistic religious nationalist mindset or our irrational propensity to justify violence for insane goals. The military, judiciary and politicians continue to sympathize, if not outright support, religious extremist militants, be they the Afghan Haqqanis or Saeed's LeT or ASWJ/LeJ, simply because we share the same religious sectarian ideological beliefs and regional, if not global, goals. Be it for votes, for being a bulwark against ethnic disintegration, murdering our own pesky minorities, or attacking our neighbours across borders out of paranoia or our own hegemonic power or being a haven for global jihadists out of solidarity and spite against other powers despite our wretched economy.
@Polpot Ji : . Till Indian Repression in Kashmir ends and Kashmir is united with Pakistan… ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I am completely against any trade liberalisation with India.What do you say? . I fully support you as Liberalization of Trade with India will lead to a Destruction of whatever is left of the Pakistani Industry which has suffered the Onslaught of the Chinese-Pakistan Free Trade as it has Destroyed-Closed over THIRTY Pakistani Industries. . Pakistan-China Friendship Zindabaad! . Cheers
The author has presented a point of view. Not sure if this has a lot of following in the country.
@Ghori: Kafir nation india, what about atheist Chinese government. Lol, you must be a follower of laal topi, rab rakha paaji
Transit to Afghanistan is not strong enough reason for Indians to keep RAW on a leash. Giving them a role in Afghanistan won't guarantee any peace in Pakistan. And things cant get any worse for Pakistan. Do no blink, India has no role in Afghanistan. Just as Pakistan has nothing to do with Burma or East Timor.
YOu conclude by saying that the RAW needs to be kept on a leash. That is the crux of the problem - the enormous trust deficit between India and Pakistan. I believe the Pakistani authorities should come up with concrete proof of RAW involvement and present it to the international community and India - otherwise this statement would seem a ploy by the authors to make himself palatable to the hawks in pakistan or a pathetic attempt to get more Indians to respond.
Till Indian Repression in Kashmir ends and Kashmir is united with Pakistan... ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I am completely against any trade liberalisation with India.What do you say?
Support every point and observation made in this piece
@truthbetold: You mean that the Chinese Indian bilateral trade increased from 60 Bn to 75 .. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ without India handing over a Port to China or without even a corridor?
Excellent reading of the situation and welcome suggestions too. The strategy of trying to hobble India by indulging in asymmetric warfare using non State actors did not succeed. That it affected Pakistan adversely by creating schisms within is well known. No longer can Afghanistan be used for hijacking and terror training, with or without the return of the Taliban. Today hate for Pakistani policies in Afghanistan competes with hate for America while India is applauded for its non political aid and development projects. To win the trust of ordinary Afghans Pakistan must transfer all the Taliban leaders housed in its territory to a neutral dispensation somewhere where from an all Afghan dialogue can take place, enabling the Taliban to join the democratic process and subsequently test their electoral strength. Taliban expectations of getting their pound of flesh without testing their electoral strength using violence from their sanctuaries in Pakistan, should be quashed. An ideal win win proposal for Pakistan would be to befriend not just China but US and India too and stop trying to play one against the other --- result of such past policies being very poor. Once the World sees positive action and recognizes Pakistan intentions are good they will come forward to help and also safeguard the integrity of Pakistan. Without the cooperation of its neighbors survival of the country will remain in great peril.
This kind of wisdom does not visit the Pakistani politicians or military top brass. A very well written piece.
There is too much of common sense in this brilliant piece to be acceptable to our army brass and our politicians. Will we be able to give up our meddling in Kashmir? I have my doubts. Old habits do not change easily.
A very sensible and pragmatic article. By the way, the China-India trade of $60B is an old number, probably from three+ years ago. The bilateral trade now is upwards of $75B.
This editorial is itself a proof as to why it is important to have civilians in control rather than some jackboot. Civilians have a much clearer perspective when it comes to issues facing the country. The army men, anywhere in the world, think in the only manner that they have been trained for. Pakistan would do well to make sure that the democratic continuity is maintained and democracy is allowed to takes roots. At the very least, it should make sure that the likes of another Musharraf, Zia, Yahya or Ayub are kept at an arms length from the corridors of power. These people have caused immense harm to the cause of peace on the subcontinent.
@R S Chadda: "Brilliant.A piece worthy of an exec.editor" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Merely obvious. Inviting Chinese investemnt is a non starter for valid reasons eg Market size law n order industrial infrastructure etc. Chinese Business decisons are not based on 'strategic considerations'.
Yhe author it seems wants to keep RAW leashed but its counterpart unleashed +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Sych disarming innocence. No wonder Karzai has deep ; affection'for Pakistan.
RAW on leash! You are implying that Indians are causing you trouble. Fine. To each his own argument. But if yiu are going write in the publc domain then substantiate it with credible evidence that can be corroborated by independent sources other than the ISI (and the like) over a period of time. But do understand your sentiments hardened by emotion and spurious propaganda over the years.
Good Article. You must also dismantle the terror infrastructure you have against India, handover the terrorist you guys have sheltered and change your hate mindset you have against India, Hindu's and other 'non-Muslims'.
"Only way to keep RAW on leash". Price of terror is steep. Please develop this idea further.
The author lacks clarity of thinking and values. Allowing India to have MFN status and transit facilities to Afghanistan is tantamount to surrendering our core responsibility to defend the Ummah from kaffir oppression.
The right course is to keep up our 66-year old battle for the glory of Islam. Our geostrategic location and strategic assets will ensure that international funds will keep flowing in, so there is no call for panic as displayed by author.
Here is one better proposal, simpler and less complex. Let's out source our policy making and government to the United States and end the problems of our neighbors. US would set them right and also make money and Pakistani elite can have good life they so dearly wish. Your trained Jahadis can be exported as contractors all over the world. You don't even need to maintain a big army. If you don't like my proposal, I'm open to critical feed back.
"“By the way, nothing and nobody can undo the geographical, cultural and ethnic ties that exist between Afghanistan and Pakistan”
Has such ideas and notions prevented vicious civil wars and wars between Islamic states or break-up of Pakistan ? in fact , when brothers fight they do so more viciously. The author seems to have a no idea of the total contempt and disdain with which majority Afghans view Pakistan.
The India-China Trade is as follows : . Exports in Billions : . China : US$ 13.54763 + Hong Kong : US $ 12.27831, Total : US$ 62.40262 Billion . Imports in Billions : . China : US$ 54,325404 + Hong Kong : US $ 08.07858, Total : US$ 25.82594 Billion . Total Trade Between India and China : US$ 91.22865 . Pakistan – China Trade : As per STATE BANK OF PAKISTAN - Statistics & DWH Department . Exports in Billions : . China : US$ 02.697594+ Hong Kong : US $ 00.494846, Total : US$ 03.192440 Billion . Imports in Billions : . China : US$ 04.761513 + Hong Kong : US $ 00.508384, Total : US$ 05.269897 Billion . Total Trade Between Pakistan and China : US$ 08.462337 . Thus the India-China Annual Trade is over US$ 91 Million and I accept M Ziauddin Esq.'s Figure of Pakistan China Annual Trade being US$ 12 Billion. . Cheers
@Burger Boy: "Nah Lets just do Jihad and enforce Sharia." +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ And enforce the ban on women going shopping all by themselves.
Brilliant.A piece worthy of an exec.editor
Nah Lets just do Jihad and enforce Sharia.
Much better for everybody.
Sir..you speak too much sense. This is just not acceptable to our Mullahs and Lalajis.
"on attracting as much Chinese investment as possible in the manufacturing sectors, which have become economically unviable in China because of rising labour costs in that country." ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Maybe post 2017 when it is claimed that there would be no loadhsedding. Its rather costly to lay power cables from Beijing to Karachi.
"By the way, nothing and nobody can undo the geographical, cultural and ethnic ties that exist between Afghanistan and Pakistan" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ This was so well captured in the FO statement that Karzai is the biggest impediment to Peace in Afghanistan.