The writer is a retired brigadier and a former president of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute
Who should be negotiating Afghanistan’s future with whom? Ideally, the Afghan government should be deciding its own future. It should take over all security duties from the US, as the latter begins to leave. It should be readying for next year’s elections and transit to the next elected government — ideally. But that, regretfully, is not the case.
Alternatively, Hamid Karzai should be leading the talks with other Afghans, particularly the Taliban. But we know that is also not going to happen.
The incumbent Karzai regime represents an infinitesimally small minority of the Afghan people and the vast majority of Afghans hate it more than they hate Americans. What is more, the Karzai regime is notoriously corrupt, inefficient and highly unlikely to oversee a fair election next year.
If it is not the Karzai regime that can represent the Afghan people, who can? The Taliban? If so, which faction(s)? Mulla Omar’s faction certainly is more representative of the Afghans than the Karzai regime. But it still represents only some of the Afghan Pashtun, not all of them. And, by now, there are many other splinter groups of the Taliban. And other ethnic groups of Afghans do not accept the Taliban. Moreover, while some of the Afghan Pashtun might like to see the Taliban make peace and become a part of the future political dispensation in Afghanistan, even they would not like to see another Taliban takeover. Let us not omit to mention the other major actor among the Pashtuns: the Haqqani network, as the Americans choose to refer to it. We might safely ignore the likes of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, but to ignore the Haqqanis would be at our own peril.
If thus far we agree, there can only be one way forward, i.e., before talking to the Afghans, the US has to glue together a group that can be considered truly representative of all the Afghan people, before they can speak for all the Afghan people. If this has to be an additional burden for the US to carry, it is important to hark back to where we began: for this endeavour to succeed, it must be Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. Therefore, it must be sincerely pursued. The US, and Pakistan, must facilitate this effort sincerely and without prejudice, otherwise, it will not succeed.
Ideally, the effort must be led by an individual (and/or an organisation) that has some political legitimacy and can acceptably reach out to the Taliban, as well as represent all Afghan ethnicities and be acceptable to the Afghan people, the US and Pakistan, as “Afghan”.
The Afghan Peace Council seems ideal. The old Ustaad Burhan is no more and, his son, Salahuddin, might only be a patch on the father, but he is still a Rabbani. The Council was set up by the Karzai government, so it enjoys political legitimacy. Led by a Tajik, with the representation of all ethnicities, it could be considered truly representative.
However, as always, there is a catch. Even as the Taliban have reluctantly shown a willingness to talk to the younger Rabbani, they are not prepared to negotiate with an organ of the Karzai government. Doesn’t that make the solution obvious? Make the Afghan Peace Council independent of Karzai.
If this Council was to be placed on the UN payroll as an independent body and tasked to negotiate with all Afghan groupings, with the US/Pakistan acting as facilitators, could it work? Perhaps, but on the face of it, this seems to be the best available alternative.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 3rd, 2013.
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COMMENTS (25)
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You wrong at many facts of about your history afghan people are representatives of Hindu history in ancient era in Vedas Kabul river, helmond river andvakshu river and there belonging area known as part of greater India. Raja shakuni of Mahabharata also from Afghanistan gandhar today's known as Kandahar. Hindu sahi king and many historical tribes of Afghanistan are hindu.not Zoroasterian Persian rule part of Afghanistan but these area culturally and historically belongs to Hindu India.@Afghan Maihan:
@ Tajik Things went down hill after Arabs came to Ajam/Persian territories and we are still suffering from the devastation wrought by Arabs and this clash of cultures continues to this day. The Shahnameh is a testimony of this ideological, cultural and civilizational schism between us/Ajam and them/Arabs.
@ Feroz
I totally agree with your post. Afghans have nothing but love for India and Indians, unfortunately there is too much bad blood between Afghanistan and former Indians now called Pakistan. Let's hope things change and future generations take the righteous path and work towards peace and understanding.
@Afghan Maihan:
And we tajiks were zoroastrians called majoos defeated and enslaved in afghanistan by arabs.
@Afghan Maihan: While some of the facts given by you in your second post is true, Afghans and Indians lived cordially as brothers and neighbors for centuries, without interfering in the others affairs or allowing any religious difference to come in the way. Even today Afghans and Indians continue to have brotherly affection though destiny decided they are no longer neighbors. I doubt you will deny this fact. The relationship between the newly created Pakistan(post 1947) and Afghanistan may be very different.
@ Sterry
Pakistanis are converted Hindus. There are more Hindu Punjabis, Sindhis, Biharis and Bengalis on the Indian side, which proves that the Muslims are all converts. Besides if you take away the religion there is not much difference between Hindus and former Hindus now calling themselves Muslims in Pakistan and India.
How many Hindu Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and Turkomans exist in India, Pakistan or Afghanistan? No matter how you spin it, you know that ethnically, linguistically and culturally you are an Indian and Afghans are not.
@Linchpin
Karzai is not going anywhere and the next government will follow policies implemented in the last eleven years and pursue continuity. The current administration has established an entrenched system, which will not allow the next president to deviate from the established course. But you can always dream and wish for what you think should happen in Afghanistan. Dreams are free and harmless.
@Zalmai: We all know that Afghanistan is run by India - in ancient times it was Hindu Shahi Rajas who ruled at Kabul and now Indian agents control the Afghanistan government; nothing has changed there in the intervening centuries!
Not a secret society in Quetta.
@Abd: first of all the Afghans were affected in a very negative way under the brutal Afghan Taliban regime. That is most relevant. Second India was impacted as Pakistan used Kandahar for strategic depth when hijacking a plane full of Indian passengers to get their strategic assets released. These people also brutally killed Shias, so clearly Iran wasn't in fair. Finaly Americans were impacted because the Afghan Taliban sheltered OBL. Therefore having seen their rack record when in power, there are many people who do not want Afghan Taliban in unchallenged power in the manner that they were the last time around
@Pakhtunkhwa: Karzai is long gone 2015.....probably to manage his chain of restaurants in the US. Establishment (what a useless word) will still be here.
Well nobody was concerned about Pakistan's interferrence in Afghanistan when the Soviets were there. Even the Afghans themselves were just simply flocking like birds inside Pakistan. Millions and millions came to this side, even the so called elected president himself was one of them. Today why is everyone concerned about it now. The world powers created a mess in Afghanistan and we Pakistanis were the victims. The US just left the area immediately after the Soviet withdrawal. Now again the US and her allies are ready to leave. Again no one else but Pakistan will be effected the most because of that failed state of Afghanistan, if at all we can call Afghanistan a state at all. How can Pakistan leave Afghanistan to the Afghans when we have a history of what a problem these Afghans have been for us.
"What is more, the Karzai regime is notoriously corrupt, inefficient and highly unlikely to oversee a fair election next year." ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The author is also a star gazer! Notorious corruption and inefficiency are not unique to Pakistan !
Summry of this article: Democrcay is good for Pakistan but not Afghanistan. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Pakistan wants veto in Afghanistan!
"Alternatively, Hamid Karzai should be leading the talks with other Afghans, particularly the Taliban. But we know that is also not going to happen." +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Who is this we? I guess the candidate acceptable to 'we'is Gen Kayani!
@Author, I would humbly entreat you to not undermine the democratically elected government in Afghanistan. It's the sole representative of the people of Afghanistan, just like the democratically elected government in Pakistan represents that country. Yes, many a people don't like the government's performance and are disillusioned with it, but that doesn't mean that it's not the true representative of Afghanistan. I think Pakistan should respect democracy in Afghanistan and home. Your government is also highly corrupt, so should the army takeover or Taliban? Any attempt to undermine democracy in Afghanistan will backfire on Pakistan. Period
I am afghan and my representitve is Presedent Hamid Karazi Not Puppet Taliban . Better you say Taliban represents Pakistan but not afghanistan. Aap ko afghanistan key bari me Alif bi ka pata nahi hi tu be kaar key filasefi ma jarei . Zara apni tassub ke chashme uttar kar deki ground realities kia hi.
Mr Karzai has gotten under Pakistan establishment skins. They hate him but can't do anything about it. I hope the next president is even more upfront about Pakistani intereference in Afghanistan.
Who represents Afghanistan? Certainly not the Quetta Shura or Haqqani Network, since they are both under the patronage of Pakistan and they represent Pakistan not Afghanistan. Pashtuns and non Pashtuns alike are united against retrograde, illiterate and dim witted slaves that kills kin and kith and destroys their own country at the behest of alien masters'
No thank you, these monsters don't represent Afghanistan just like the TTP does not represent Pakistan. Dear Shaukat Qadir stop this dishonest diatribe and stop weaving fictitious tales.
"Ideally, the effort must be led by an individual (and/or an organisation) that has some political legitimacy and can acceptably reach out to the Taliban, as well as represent all Afghan ethnicities and be acceptable to the Afghan people, the US and Pakistan, as “Afghan”."
Why should "acceptability" to Pakistan matter? Isn't it for Afghan, and Afghans alone, to decide what is legitimate? Isn't Afghan a sovereign and independent country?
You have made many conclusions to suit your own convenience. Karzai, is an elected leader and represents the Afghan people however flawed the electioneering may have been. You think the Taliban represent the Afghan people but this is only a guess, without any evidence since they have not participated in any election. They may have the guns, does not mean they represent anyone just as the TTP does not represent the Pakistani people. If corruption is the barometer of leadership, all leaders in South Asia would be illegitimate. To come up with devious logic to justify support for the Taliban may convince a few fence sitters, however it represents a surprising intellectual bankruptcy by the Establishment --- seeing the number of Pakistani citizens who have paid for such follies with their lives.
To try and exploit festering wounds caused by ones own actions, is not being clever but suicidal. I would have thought that a few educated people could possess enough common sense to abandon a path that can bring nothing but misery and bloodshed to people of the region. Please continue on the path of strategic depth you want to follow but also learn not to blame foreign hands when failure comes knocking. Be man enough to accept and take responsibility for your actions, failure being guaranteed.
"Who Represents Afghanistan ?"
Correct answer would be; Leave it to Afghans. Any solution suggested by Pakistan will backfire for sure.
What difference does it make to our economically sinking 180 million citizens who rules Afghanistan, and what happens there? It is dishonest of the Army to say that we need to be involved because the goings on there will affect us in Pakistan. If there is a political will to focus solely on fixing the internal problems of our country, it is not difficult for us to get uninvolved in Afghanistan while also staying unaffected by its problems. But our establishment has the opposite desire: ignore the mammoth internal problems and continue with the 20 year-long fruitless 'pangaa' in Afghanistan