US Secretary of State John Kerry reminded New Delhi that the United States expects India to toe its line on non-proliferation and get a move on in signing the Missile Technology Control Regime, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty. One hopes New Delhi will not give way on any of these issues even if membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group is the prize because, as it is, the Indian nuclear deterrent is grievously handicapped. First, by untested thermonuclear weapons with design flaws no amount of simulation can correct, whence resumption of testing becomes imperative, and secondly, matching this hardware deficiency are the “software” problems — doctrinal weaknesses and inadequate understanding in government circles of nuclear weapons and strategy.
The latter aspect was illustrated by Shyam Saran, convener of India’s National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) and former foreign secretary, holding forth on May 3 on nuclear issues and, predictably, making a hash of it. Considering a Chinese military unit was holding Ladakhi real estate then, Saran went off on an anti-Pakistan tangent instead! It confirmed the suspicion that the government is unable to differentiate issues of strategic importance from lesser concerns and, as regards nuclear security, is all at sea. Informed Pakistanis promptly dismissed it as “bluster”, deeming India “a blundering nuclear power”.
At the heart of Saran’s talk was a wrong take on nuclear matters that has calcified into a strategic gospel in official quarters, courtesy the late K Subrahmanyam, starting with the belief that nuclear testing is incidental to the credibility of the deterrent, evident in his canvassing for India’s signature on the CTBT in 1995-96 which Saran rightly said “would have permanently foreclosed (development of) a credible and fully tested nuclear deterrent”. Except, the problem of untested hydrogen weapons persists owing to the no-testing predicate of the US-India nuclear deal supported by Subrahmanyam and Co, and negotiated by Saran. It reflects the cavalier disregard for nuclear testing which is stark in the context of the field director of the 1998 tests, K Santhanam, recommending the re-testing of a rectified thermonuclear weapon design because the one that was tested failed.
Saran’s plea to “make public” the official nuclear doctrine, which he said was virtually the draft produced by the NSAB in 1998, was of a piece with his asking for an annual numerical accounting of the country’s nuclear forces. He didn’t pause to wonder why no other nuclear weapon state to-date has disclosed its nuclear doctrine, and why China and Pakistan are unlikely ever to reveal inventory details of their weapons. The public release of the draft-doctrine to win points for transparency with America and gain traction for the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) was an appalling mistake by the BJP government that the Congress regime converted into the wrecking ball of the US-India nuclear deal, which destroyed the integrity of the country’s dual-use nuclear energy programme.
Ambiguity is at the core of nuclear deterrence and dissuasion. It isn’t advanced by making the doctrine an open document, even less by revealing weapons strength. Having disclosed the doctrine, however, the strategic initiative passed to the adversary states with the good sense to divulge nothing. China increased the “daunting uncertainties” for India by bringing conventional missiles under the control of its Second Artillery nuclear forces, and Pakistan developed the 60km Nasr (Hatf-IX) guided rocket.
The dense fog of ignorance of nuclear deterrence matters blanketing Indian government circles has eventuated in a hollow strategy emphasising “massive retaliation” as response to tactical first use of nuclear weapon by Pakistan (on Indian armour, say, inside Pakistani territory). Promising massive nuclear destruction as retaliatory action, in the circumstances, only undermines the credibility of the Indian deterrent as it violates the principle of proportionality — the essence of “flexible response”. A version of this concept — “punitive response” — was central to the original NSAB draft-doctrine. Owing to the usual mix of abominable advice and mindless attitudinising lashed with deep illiteracy on these issues, “punitive response” was replaced by “massive retaliation”. All it did was spur accelerated production of weapons-grade plutonium, warheads, and missiles by Pakistan which an India, fixated on Pakistan and “minimum” deterrence, finds unable to match, what to talk of China! Truth is massive retaliation cannot doctrinally coexist with the “minimum deterrence” notion the Indian government seems wedded to. That is common sense but try telling it to the glib talkers in official quarters.
Much was also made by him of commentaries concluding India acquired nuclear weapons for status and prestige, not for security. But why is this conclusion wrong, considering India reached the weapons threshold with its plutonium reprocessing capability in early 1964 but did not weaponise after China exploded an atomic device in October that year, and with the military humiliation of 1962 as backdrop? Contrast this with the single-minded, no-nonsense, threat-propelled Chinese and Pakistani programmes to obtain meaningful nuclear arsenals fast, even as the Indian weapons programme meandered, its progress hampered by dreams of disarmament last manifested in the 1988 Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan.
That the Indian government has time and again veered off into the murk of nuclear power politics without being equipped for the task is due to the generalist diplomats and civil servants playing at nuclear strategists. Saran admitted that the country had suffered from bad advice to “defer the acquisition of a nuclear weapon arsenal as long as there was still hope that the world would eventually move towards a complete elimination of these weapons”, and that it was “undeniable” that “mistakes (were) made, sometimes opportunities (were) missed or our judgements were misplaced”.
The cumulative debilitating effect of such rank bad, and amateurish, counsel is reflected in the manner India is strategically handicapped today. It indicates a fool’s world our diplomats (especially, denizens of the MEA’s Disarmament Division that Saran served in), senior civil servants, political leaders and increasingly senior military officers hewing to the government line, live in. Elimination of nuclear weapons, really?
Courtesy: New Indian Express
Published in The Express Tribune, June 30th, 2013.
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COMMENTS (32)
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@Ram: Don't know how many nukes, but just ONE moment of madness. Lord save us all.
A lot of esoteric stuff here, both in the OpEd as well as in the comments. But let me ask a very simple question and I hope the smart-alecs (on both sides) can answer. How many nukes does it take for either nation to wipe out the entire subcontinent (and perhaps more)? Thank you.
@FYI: No point in putting that YouTube video link, Pakistanis don't have YouTube.
@FYI: Pakistanis don't have YouTube.
If Indian nukes were like crackers do you think the Pakistani generals would leave us in peace. Kuch to hosh ki baatain karo. Ok, our nukes are useless and I am scared now. Whole bunch of scientists are liars and kalam sahab is lying. Happy, lol. Just keep on crying wolf.
Thank the gods, finally we have accepted our stupidity in nuclear matters. Our nuclear posture is totally irresponsible.
I think the author makes a valid point here. I believe that if such delicate matters of strategic significance are dealt with in a trivial manner by bureaucrats then this would weaken India's nuclear credibility further. Apart from unneeded long range delivery means, India's nuclear armour is weak and rift with many weaknesses. I think its the over confidence displayed by India that will lead to its demise.
Thank God that there is an honest India left in us. Else we have become retards with our hubris of superiority. Its evidently clear that we dwarf in front of Pakistani nuclear strategy.
@hasan: India's world is not limited to South Asia. It has bigger goals.
Indian newspaper wont ever dare to publish Pakistani columnist. They day they do no one will ever buy their newspapers@Naveen:
@Vectra: It is a Freudian slip, is not it?
"Action speaks louder than the word and India has always chosen the latter."
Sorry typo mistake India chose the former.
the key of the peace for south asia is in the hands of India. pakistan utters many times that if India join international proliferation regimes then Pakistan will follow the suit. now its on our neighbor whether she wants peace or want prolonged armed race in the region
Indians are just busy in increasing their nuclear weapons without having sound knowledge of nuclear weapons...by not being signatory to Nuclear non proliferation regime indicates that India is not serious about nuclear disarmament...and still wants arms race in the region... Secondly writer claimed that Pakistan nor China clearly talk about their nuclear weapons..it is not the case Pakistan is fully agreed to IAEA commitments and opened up its nuclear facilities for inspection...More over Pakistan is very serious about taking regional non proliferation steps...and ready to cooperate with India..
It shows a sense of responsibility of one.. a gud piece of work done by Indian scientist atleast they should get enough with all this nuclear and should start working on ground realities. they initially started the nuclear race with the help of CANDU reactor, they started 123 agreement so its nuclear is totally asisted by outside world. they really need to know the ABC of nuclear otherwise there will be a disastor same like fukushima! they think it is a business of peanuts and choclates but it is a very serious issue.
Many of India's Nuclear Scientists oppose the Nuclear Deal is no big secret. They had opposed it when the deal was being signed and they oppose it now.
One of the things they dislike is the deal stipulates India to not test anymore devices, which they think is hampering the betterment of weapons, particularly the extraordinarily powerful and devastating Thermonuclear devices.
The other side argues that the non-thermonuclear nukes are strong enough, being many times more powerful than the ones dropped on Hiroshima. They reckon there'll never come a day when India will feel it has to strike with Thermonuclear weapons, hence they don't give such importance to it. Their argument goes, even small, tactical nukes are enough to ensure the adversaries strike each other with everything they have.
I say there are ways to test a nuke, without harming any deal. India has a robust space-program. It has sent rovers to Moon and Mars is not too far away. India can always fit a miniature Thermonuclear device and attach it onto a probe and blast it off on Mars!
This could be called a Science Experiment and can easily be masked by an India whose stakes and influence in the world would have increased manifold by then.
The nuclear deal is a reality and so are testing of devices which are crucial to India's security. Its time to find alternatives to achieve both aims.
well Bharat Karnad is a resectable defence analyst but as far as India's Nuclear weapons are concerned then none even some top nuclear scientists like k.santhanam have no detailed knowledge neither about the yeild or other technical details since they were only associated with test preparation and other coordinations but not core nuclear bomb making activities.Very few like the former president APJ Abdul Kalam who himself contributed towards actual nuclear bomb making and testing,Anil kakodar who is current chairman of Atomic energy board and other secret faces which we even dont know till now actually knows about India's nuclear secret.These prominent persons were the one who were actually involved in core nuclear activities and they had already said that there infact exists the destructive 200 of more kt nuclear warhead and rejected the k santhanams allegations all togther.So ther is no way the Bharat Karnad know about India's nuclear capability.If India's nuclear activity is weak then India would not have reached Agni v stage and building more and more missiles all nuclear capable,If India's nuclear activity is weak then the same shyam saran about whom this article is mentioned then would not have warned of UNACCEPTABLE DAMAGE on adversary,If APJ Abdul Kalam,anil Kakodar and others were wrong then why Kalam was made president and Kakodar became chairman of atomic board but santhanam left out cuz santhanam has not contributed any core nuclear weapon activity.This article got no merit,India Nuclear details are so secret that many in India except some mentioned and PM even US spy satellite cannot got the clue of nuclear testing.All those article that are published including this are based on hearing and speculation but till now no article have given concrete evidence in such articles.As far as China and others is concerned the some in India wants Govt to talk hard which India can do so chooses to do so but instead Govt is choosing soft and over cautious approach which some misrepresenting as weakeness which is not.If you look at Chinese expert feel JSDF is more aggressive than PLA and Indian navy is either equal or even surpasses China navy in firepower.Action speaks louder than the word and India has always chosen the latter.
Interesting take... These kind of allegations on the Indian side have always been brushed off as unfounded but this brings some credence to the stories.
It is surprising that India, a nuclear power since the 70s has not been able to get a good handle on the technical as well as the policy orientated elements of nuclear weapons.
An IFS officer who was a diplomat throughout is carrier who is now "convener of India’s National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) ". How do you expect him to be a authority on nuclear issues ? Just jobs for the boys !
This article confirms the conclusion of strategists around the world that India is a doughnut - soft, circular and without a solid center. Evidence of its naïveté and buffoonery are plentiful. Just consider one: it conducted a nuclear test in 1974 and chose not to conduct another until 1998! Even then the thermonuclear testing remained inconclusive. It allowed the Chinese to increase their lead and stranglehold unilaterally. Indians have no one to blame but their smug high morality. What is laughable is that it comes from the worst in Indian polity and society - the politicians. Pseudo idealism fettered by greed has permanently relegated the country to the ranks of "could have been". But indians are perfectly happy being considered a power but not being one! In the halls of power no one takes it seriously - but the Indians of course.
Congress party is out to sell the country"" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++ It seems to be a competeition with PPP....
India’s nuclear amateurism is in the hands of amateur Indian journalists who cannot publish their articles in Indian newspapers. Welcome to the club of Akar Ahmed Patel.
“massive retaliation” as response to tactical first use of nuclear weapon by Pakistan (on Indian armour, say, inside Pakistani territory). Promising massive nuclear destruction as retaliatory action, in the circumstances." I think it is just supposition and nothing more, I don't think Pakistani planners will ever let Indian Armour gets into their territory in the first place in 21st century,If I recall correctly when the Indian government was pondering to retaliate against Pakistan when their NA was attacked by terrorists, Pakistanis did take some serious nuclear measures and it could have been holocaust on both sides. India does have legitimate rghts and reasons to accuse Pakistan for sending terrorists to their country which Pakistanis deny and it seems that they were Non State actors but the fact still remains that those were Pakistanis who were involved in terrorists activities. If India decide to acquire hydrogen arsenal then believe me Pakistan will not be far behind.Time is not that far off when both countries will be capable of massive responses deep into each others territory, it will be plain madness on either side. At this stage nuclear deterrent is the best recipe for both countries with out going further.
Why don't you tell the truth..... Indian nuclear tests failed: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8225540.stm
@ Author: DRDO Scientist & director of Pokhran tests K Santhanam said that Indian nuclear tests failed. That India needs two more nuke tests to have this capability. http://m.rediff.com/news/report/india-needs-2-more-nuke-tests1/20090921.htm#
@sid Don't worry. India has survived thousands of scoundrels, both foreign and indigenous over thousand of years. And it can survive a few more.
@sid: Don't worry, Modi is about to become very serious alternative to this half Italian composed Congress Party of lame ducks ! Time will tell another story and it will be a very strong party in power without coalition and different agendas and mandates ! That perhaps Modi can get and make the Nation's presence felt in the region, including zero tolerance of abuse from neighbors. This is what India is going to seek, with a view to its economic and regional development, and that is what is required at present in India. Let the rest worry about their internal issues and try to reign them in first, then consider any other ambitions, if their economic clout allows for such luxuries ! I sadly do not see this in next decade. on contrary i am concerned about the fundamentalism that is likely to come out of Pakistan, as Bangla Desh has already learned and is enjoying the joys of economic progress on various fronts, while Pakistan is still languishing as to where it really stands ! The real tough decisions that need to be made for Pakistan's economic progress are sadly not likely to happen over next decade as no GOP actually has political will to do so and its population has been radicalsied ever since the time of Zia ! Hence the current climate in the Country !
Oh boy, I never expected an article by Bharat Karnad (a core Indian Defence analyst) being posted on ET. Indian media needs to catch up with their Pakistani counterparts.
Congress party is out to sell the country,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,