We, too, have difficulty reading — reading the future of Afghanistan and, by extension, Pakistan. Part of the uncertainty lies in the “data” that is available. For example, we really won’t know how many Afghan soldiers, police and local militiamen will desert in the months leading up to the end of US combat operations in 2014. According to Isaf, there is “no viable method of validating personnel numbers” offered by the Afghan government. Data provided by local commanders is often written by hand or embellished.
The broader landscape is also fuzzy. The Taliban have opened an office in Doha, implicitly gaining some international legitimacy. And at the same time, they have opened a deadly summer offensive in Kabul. June 25’s show of strength in the most secure area of the Afghan capital doesn’t necessarily mean that the Taliban are averse to peace — but they are clearly keen on continuing the fight.
Peace itself remains elusive. There’s neither a framework nor much incentive to scale down the conflict as the US reduces its footprint in Afghanistan and a leadership transition takes place in Kabul. Why would the Taliban lay down their arms when they don’t know who will be president of Afghanistan within a year from now? With whom exactly would the Taliban make a deal with in Afghanistan? An exiting Karzai, derided by all?
Ultimately, the Taliban will have to make an agreement with other Afghans to avert a civil war. But it will be difficult to attain some kind of intra-Afghan accord in an election season. Elections tend to be divisive affairs that reify sociopolitical cleavages. The departure of Western forces means the loss of that connective tissue (or cash) that has brought some of Afghanistan’s warring factions together post-9/11. Behind the scenes, the Bonn framework could be unravelling. Abdur Rashid Dostum, the anti-Taliban ethnic Uzbek warlord, has been reportedly trying to bolster his militia in anticipation of renewed civil strife. And more publicly, there was an assassination attempt on Muhammad Mohaqiq, the Hazara Shia leader, earlier this month.
A further prolonged conflict in Afghanistan does not serve Pakistan’s interests. It will give space to and fuel terrorist and insurgent forces that are waging an anti-systemic fight in Pakistan. Though centre-right and Islamist politicians in Pakistan are keen on talks with militants in Fata, al Qaeda and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are prepping for a war that continues in Pakistan if and once the American war on terror in neighbouring Afghanistan comes to an end. Leading takfiri jihadist leaders, including al Qaeda’s Ahmed Farooq, have reached out to Baloch insurgents, asking them to join their ranks in an Islamic framework. Another pro-TTP preacher has not only done the same, but has also justified the targeting of mosques with suicide blasts. The longer this war goes on in Afghanistan, the deeper this cancer of takfiri jihadism will spread into Pakistan’s bones.
The dormant US-Afghan Taliban dialogue was revived this month in large part due to the efforts of the Pakistani civilian and military leadership. It is a last-minute effort to push for a political settlement before it’s too late. It might already be too late. Still, Islamabad must renew outreach to non-Pashtun political forces in Afghanistan, including all major 2014 presidential candidates. The goal should be to convince Afghanistan’s major power brokers that Pakistan’s civil and military leadership seeks peace and stability for its neighbour and could offer moral support for an intra-Afghan dialogue that would include the Taliban. For its own selfish reasons, Pakistan needs to mitigate the risks of intra-Afghan strife as a political and military transition takes place in Afghanistan. If it fails to do so, it might long for the days America ruled Afghanistan.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 27th, 2013.
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COMMENTS (14)
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@linchpin
Ehsanullah Ehsan abides by the decisions of Mullah Omar, which goes to show that Pashtun leaders have traditionally come from Afghanistan, the land of Ahmad Shah Abdali, Mirwais Hotak and Mullah Omar and it does not matter how many Pashtuns live in Pakistan.
I wonder why the learned and educated Pakistan military routinely gets decapitated by the TTP? The illiterate Afghans are deftly handling the Afghan Taliban. Stop the negative propaganda.
@Linchpin: If this is your line of argument then India holds more Muslims than Pakistan and hence be the guiding force for Pakistan.
The writer says "The goal should be to convince Afghanistan’s major power brokers that Pakistan’s civil and military leadership seeks peace and stability for its neighbour and could offer moral support for an intra-Afghan dialogue that would include the Taliban."
The only way to settle Afghanistan is to annihilate Terrorists and talibans any where and every where. And above every thing leave Afghanistan to settle their own problems. Remember that what ever may be the conditions in Pakistan and however big threat Pakistan may provide to India; there is no justification for India to meddle in the internal matters of Pakistan. Similarly Pakistan should keep away from Afghanistan.
@C. Nandkishore: Pakistan Army spent the last 2 decades seeking strategic depth in Afganistan . But it is Afgan Taliban which has achieved strategic depth in Pakistan . Afgan Taliban are not going to give up the areas they control in Pakistan even after the withdrawal of the US forces from Afganistan .
Another article which appears to agree that things are going to get worse when American departs - so much for the myth that when America departs the terrorist are going to lay down their arms and hold hands with Islamabad.
@Virkaul: Sorry Pakistan is the largest Pushtun country in the world not Afghanistan. There are more Pushtuns in Pakistan than the entire population of Afghanistan. Though Pakistani Pushtuns have refrained from demanding that Pushtun areas of Afghanistan be annexed this might be the best solution in the long run. Who knows? Then they will become the largest linguistic group in Pakistan. Remember there are Pushtuns living in all four provinces for centuries.
@C. Nandkishore: Afghanistan has never been stable and has always been a problem for the region. The first problem will not be for Pakistan but for Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. As outsiders prop up warlords they do so with intent of gaining influence. Iran, India and Russia will not stop supporting their proxy's. Iran will also be pulled in after the Americans leave as they will feel the need to bolster themselves in the wake of increased pressure from the Arabs and the West. Pakistan is in a unique position as it is the biggest Pashtun country in the world and as such special in relation to Afghanistan where Pushtuns form the largest minority. Afghanistan and Pakistan are interlocked both geographically, economically, linguistically and culturally as no other country in the region.
@abc: conspiracy theory thy origin is few Pakistani mind. Carry on with creative conspiracy theory without rationale.
a sensible analysis.however with karzai with his bow ho and blow cold attitude is the biggest hurdle in peace.afghanisn should have a coalition caretaker set up with all its presidential hopefuls as its members and start peace process.this will not give an excuse to terror groups for the govt.beeing biased.in the meanwhile US should quit immediately and its place a caucus of RUSSIA PAKISTAN CHINA IRAN should be put in place to exert pressure upon the various ethnic groups in their respective spell of influence. INDIA should be kept out of the process since it will give pakistan an excuse to sabotage the process.In any chance we have nothing to gain politically by meddling in afghan affairs.Indian involvement will be treated as a replacement for US by terrorists and the things will be back to square one. India will gain immensely if the region becomes peaceful.It will open up for our business and commerce which except china no other country in the region can offer.
We are witness to a drama of uncertainity >>>>>>> till the next Presidintal elections in Afghanistan.
Of course no body can predict as to what will happen in future but one possibility Pakistan fears most is TTP and Aghanistan Taliban combining and derecognizing the Durand Line thus demanding annexation of FATA and parts of Pashtun areas into Afghanistan. That will trigger more unrest in Balochistan. Pakistan, today needs statesmen not army generals like Hamid Gul or fake analysts like Zaid Hamid to defuse situation and save their country.
For last so many years I have been saying and ET was publishing that the day America leaves Afghanistan is the day of reckoning for Pakistan. This article says it all. All anti Pakistani Taliban will fight from Afghanistan. Remember if America could not defeat Taliban then Pakistan also cannot defeat Taliban. India, Iran and Russia have some influence over northern warlords. Pakistan has some influence over Pastuns. These four countries should be one the same side to solve Afghanistan. If Pakistan thinks that it alone can solve Afghanistan then it itself will be destroyed.
If events in Syria and Libya are any indications, western powers are no more interested in a stable Muslim world. By design west will creating more and more internal conflicts in Muslim countries. Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan will fuel internal conflicts. West will support the warring factions all shades. This is the way west will like to contain conflicts away from its borders right into the enemy territory. Jihadis from all western counties will be shipped to fight in various conflict zones. May be this is the new western strategy to deal with Islam. It will be Muslims fighting Muslims with Muslim resources and paid western weapons. Common Muslim is going to have tough time.