The writer is a defence analyst who retired as a lieutenant-colonel in the Pakistan Army
Our neighbourhood is one in which unnatural partners like India and Afghanistan seek economic and military partnerships, while we prepare to prevent the myth of “military encirclement”. The choices that Afghanistan is making today are not the result of it not being our natural partner but the outcome of our own policy preferences. Afghanistan knows that all the engines that drive our society today — economic, political and social — are sputtering. It is natural for it to reach out over our shoulders to India. When, as a state, we do not even have control over our gas pumps and when we cannot even ensure that our universities remain open, why on earth would Afghanistan want its students to enrol in our universities or invest in oil and gas pipelines that, to remain functional, may rely on the goodwill of terrorists and arsonists? Afghanistan has the right to make its choices as much as we have the right to make our own. The neighbour on our western border and the peace we favour with it will only materialise if both the countries are ready to blow up the myths and lay bare tragic truths. Only from such action will emerge an environment that may be congenial for pursuing peace in the western neighbourhood.
Our eastern neighbourhood that warrants our major military deployment needs our greatest attention. Persisting with the status quo and our hardened policies will not work to break the impasse with India. In the past, our inconsistencies in following up on our policies with that country damaged our purity of intent and credibility. Nobody knows that better than PM Sharif, whose government was removed defending such an inconsistency. The next big test for him is when his government presents the budget today. Judging by the security situation in and around the country, the government will have to devote money to the military. But what it can plan in the future is to minimise and provide little incentive to allocate huge amounts to the defence budget. We can create that incentive only if we are at peace with India. A peaceful eastern front will entail reduction in military expenditures and that is what our renewed foreign policy goal must seek.
Pakistan needs to band together with other countries, including regional and global powers. We cannot continue to stick only to our national and security interests. We may do that only if these interests don’t translate into insecurities and vulnerabilities for other countries because that entails that we have been following a course of divergence. So, how can these divergences be minimised and removed?
All the countries need to look at one another’s problems, not from the other side of the border or the other side of the globe, but through putting themselves in the other’s shoes. It’s not by exploiting one another’s weaknesses but by cashing on the many opportunities to change the course of interstate relationships that we can create an environment of interdependence and a convergence of interests.
With few interests in common, building up convergence seems to be a myth, or at best, a political slogan. Yet, if we are free to make choices as governments that lead our independent countries, then there is room for hope and optimism.
In Pakistan’s case, if it is ideas and not individuals and institutions that guide our foreign policies, then we may see a meaningful change in how we build our external relationships.
If working in our national interests has boxed us in the corner, then it is time we found other ways of fighting to preserve them. It is actually the search of such methods that PM Sharif’s government needs to explore. If our foreign policy is not guided by an out-of-the-box approach, then it will be hard for Pakistan to get out of the corner where it has boxed itself in.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 12th, 2013.
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A query about "unnatural partners" like Afghanistan and India: what's so unnatural about it, is it more unnatural than the one that Pakistan has with China, a country with which its shares little history, civilization, faith etc. China is primarily important to Pakistan in the context of India. As long as Pakistan's basic assumption starts with the view that India remains an existential threat, then there is little hope for improvement in Pakistan's security environment, both internal and external. But, as this article and the one previous to it suggest, there is clearly some churning of minds. What will it lead to, we shall have to wait.
An extremely well written piece which is practical and based on ground realities. It is just not a small change that is required, we need to totally change the mindset prevailing and revamp our policies to follow a path based on these realities. Is the present government willing and capable of taking these decisions which entail a paradigm shift from the existing policies? Can they stand up to the various groups who have had a hold over these policies over the years? The way things are in this country, it is going to take a very strong government to take decisions which will, most probably, lead to a head on conflict with the existing powerful policy makers. The risk is great and the returns unpredictable. Let's see how things unfold.
As a poster above said, this sensible man couldn't move past the Lt. Col level because he is too logical, realistic, candid in his views and intellectually honest to fit in the company of the idiotic, egomaniacal, self-aggrandizing Pakistani top military brass who all think they are the next Salahuddins to lead the Islamic world, just as Saddam Hussein fancied himself.
Well, i would say that now military should realize the gravity of situation and where we are standing. All these solution you mentioned in the article, they sound well, if military let our civilian government to formulate our foreign policy. Otherwise, all these solutions would remain rhetoric.
A very well balanced article to the point.The writer being an ex army officer has spoken the truth based on ground realities and have set right line of direction for the army.The officer is certainly a general material but perhaps being out spoken he paid heavy price.So many generals have faded away and no one remembers them but I am sure this officer shall be long remembered.The fact of the matter is that we always tried to instal government of our choosing in Afghanistan the result is before us.No lesson learnt.Is it not a tragedy that our army is bogged down and unable to pull out.The situation is such that army having cleared the areas per force have to establish small cantonment. Pakistan has no choice except to go all out to establish good relations with India, china Iran and Afghanistan. It is not good omen to keep foreign and defence portfolio by the PM.Our solution lies in keeping army away from interference in running the affairs of the country,it can only be achieved by gradually replacing them with seasoned bureaucrats.The perception army calling shots even today must be dispelled for the good of democracy
The Army has been firmly in control of Pakistan's foreign policy since 1977. This is why we have no international standing, and are viewed with suspicion even at the airports of 'brotherly countries'. Since 1977, we have pursued the army's agenda as a nation, while completely ignoring education, health, commerce, justice, and all other pillars that underpin a healthy, vibrant nation. Let's say a couple of your neighbors are belligerent toward you. Would you stop sending your children to school because of that? Will you not take your ailing mother to the doctor because the neighbors are unfriendly? This is exactly the logic we have been pursuing. As a result Pakistan has become a hollow shell, with all institutions eroded to the ground.
@observer:
"This is precisely what India has been proposing all along. India has favoured the emergence of an economic block comprising India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and the Central Asian states. This however, can not come along if Pakistan refuses to play ball."
I agree with your points, but just one comment. Pakistan is not needed for economic integration of CAR's,Afghanistan and Iran. This can be done through the Chabbahar port in Iran and the road/rail links from there to CAR's.
A masterly piece indeed. No thinking Pakistani can disagree with the writer. I wish he had also dealt with the need to rethink our nuclear weapons policy.
Realistically, all those expensive nuclear toys are not needed for defending the nation. India is never going to attack us considering its declared policy, and even its 5000 years' history of nonaggression. We could easily do without the Nuclear weapons, if only we were to keep our Ghairat aside. If China were as good a friend as we tirelessly proclaim, it would surely agree to providing us defense against India’s nukes just like the US provides for South Korea and Japan. We could then set a world-record-high in Human Development Index. (Just imagine!) Our military spending even at present levels is something we cannot afford, but the future is even bleaker. This arms race with India (we have no other nuclear worry) could prove to be fatal for us as a Nation in future. (Remember what happened to USSR?). The technology is not static; it is advancing at a feverish pitch. Our present nuclear deterrent could be obsolete very soon, and the cost of keeping up with the advancements will not only be prohibitive but even unaffordable (even if we eat grass). Just imagine the price our masses will have to pay if we do not change our ways now. (They are the ones who actually have to eat grass). The new government will have to take up this matter seriously.
It’s not by exploiting one another’s weaknesses but by cashing on the many opportunities to change the course of interstate relationships that we can create an environment of interdependence and a convergence of interests.
This is precisely what India has been proposing all along. India has favoured the emergence of an economic block comprising India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and the Central Asian states. This however, can not come along if Pakistan refuses to play ball. So far Pakistan has consistently opposed this and has adopted a 'Kashmir or nothing' policy. And in pursuit of this policy Pakistan has got into bed with unsavoury characters that are causing mayhem in Pakistan.
If not in other's interest, in its own interest, Pakistan must abandon this approach.
I will give a pass for author calling India and Afghanistan "unnatural partners like India"...Actually its exactly the opposite ...but l dont think author has any malicious intent behind that ..
@ Author; "Our neighborhood is one in which unnatural partners like India and Afghanistan seek economic and military partnerships" Pardon me.... What criteria did you apply to call this partnership unnatural ? Just because they don't share a common border? This defies all logics. By this logic India and Russia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Israel and USA etc. are also unnatural partners. Afghanistan is very much a natural partner of India. This partnership has always been strong except for a brief period during Taliban's rule. India had cultural ties with far and wide places all through history. In fact culturally and even otherwise, Pakistan is the closest to India and should have been her natural partner. Politics is the only spoiler. Pakistan and India have to look at each other through the prism of secular politics and only then the good relations will evolve. Nothing will change for Pakistan unless the policy of jihad export is dismantled.
Very well articulated, no one wants to be friends with the loser, especially the loser who continues to shoot up heroin and every once in a while throws garbage in neighboring properties and threatens the people around him. Its high time we did a bit of introspection and reflect on our own actions which have bought us to this sorry juncture.
We also really need to figure out what our defense spending is doing for us as we have in reality lost all our wars (lets ignore the propaganda please) and despite a dozen or so covert intelligence 'agencies' which include MI, ISI, FIA, IB, NI which are all pretty much independent, we are still plagued by a ridiculous levels of violence whether due to internal 'militant wings', sectarian killers, or across the border rascals.
One final point, Im surprised to see such a sensible article coming from a military man, but I guess this sense is what resulted in him retiring as a Lt. Col and not a Lt. General.
Re:" Persisting with the status quo and our hardened policies will not work to break the impasse with India. In the past, our inconsistencies in following up on our policies with that country damaged our purity of intent and credibility. Nobody knows that better than PM Sharif..". Dear Lt. Col. Muhammad Ali Ehsan: Truer words have never been expressed..may the Force be with you! Look at the blighted landscape of India and Pakistan-stare at the hollowed eyes of the poor and impoverished, and we can reach an inescapable conclusion that the elite of both countries have truly let these people down! While we indulge in chest-thumping and out-maneuvering each other, the world watches and laughs at us as we indulge in empty histrionics and proclaim our superiority..nobody is convinced as we lead the lives of the damned. Surely there are better ways to serve our citizenry than to be at the state of constant war..a state that will never benefit, as both nations will destroy each other in case of nuclear war. The time in now to make peace. Yes, a legitimate peace where our poor and needy can look forward to their day in the sun, where as Tagore said in 1912: "knowledge is free and the world is not broken into narrow domestic walls..Into this world of freedom, my Father, let my country awake"! Perhaps the Establishment in Pakistan will allow Mr Sharif a free hand to pursue peace with India! This will also benefit them as they cannot be oblivious to the situation around them. India will be only too glad to reciprocate, as Mr. Sharif has tried this path once before with Mr. Vajpayee before Kargil. This is the equivalent of the "out-of-the box" solution that you have postulated. Let us truely live free my friend, and hope that my waning years (I am now 66) will witness the rapproachment between India and Pakistan. If it happens, it will be due to tireless efforts of intelligent people like you, and I daresay, the peaceful side of Mr. Nawaz Sharif. Best wishes to you! RR Iyer
Very sound, practical and doable suggestions. While the editors of this newspaper seem to have lost the plot, this author makes lots of sense in this column.