All the talk of an economic corridor will remain just that unless we are able to secure the route that corridor must take; a route that currently stretches across terrain plagued by insurgency and chaos. CREATIVE COMMONS
For all the sound, fury and Hollywood hype, the War on Terror was not a true strategic shift for the United States. I say ‘was’ because, for all real intents and purposes, the war is over for the United States.
Yes, the drones will continue to fly, terrorists will be monitored, the militarisation and intrusiveness of America’s domestic security services will increase and the odd lone wolf attack will be carried out. But on a strategic level, the US is now out of the fight. It’s another matter entirely that the length and breadth of the Muslim world will be faced with a metastasised al Qaeda and its allies for some time to come, but that’s not the topic of this piece. So long as the Middle-East remains balkanised and fragmented, a process aided by the Iraq invasion’s aftermath and now the Syrian civil war, the possibility of a regional hegemon arising remains a distant one. This coupled with a projected decrease in the US’ reliance on Mideast energy, means that this area will not be a prime strategic concern for the US in years to come. Al Qaeda essentially did not achieve its strategic goal of fomenting rebellion in the Muslim world, although one must admit that the war it inspired did succeed in delaying what is the true strategic realignment of the US: The Asian Pivot.
Starting from South Korea and Japan, and stretching all the way down to Vietnam, Myanmar and finally India, an attempt is being made to create a ‘shield’ of nations that can, if push comes to shove, contain China both diplomatically and physically. As a counter, China has its string of pearls, a series of ‘friendly’ naval bases – meant primarily for commercial purposes – that stretch around the Indian Ocean and culminate at Gwadar. The other importance of Gwadar to the Chinese is that it will be, ultimately, the jumping-off point for the economic corridor that Chinese PM Keqiang spoke of during his visit. This, along with Pakistan’s utility as a hedge against India and possibly the US, is the core of the strategic partnership. And make no mistake, it is a strategic partnership in the true sense of the term and is based on cold, hard geopolitics. To analyse it purely, or even primarily, through an economic lens is myopic and disregards the way the Chinese tend to do business. This is not a sugar-daddy in the mold of the US, which will keep the dollar spigot open. For Pakistan on the other hand, it is a relation of necessity. We have few friends in the region, and simply cannot afford to let the Chinese partnership sour, especially when we consider that the long-term strategic interests of Pakistan and the US are fundamentally divergent.
It is true, of course, that out of this necessity we have struck unequal bargains with the Chinese, but fairness is not a guiding principle in foreign affairs. For all the Himalayan hyperbole – which is meant largely for public consumption – It is not incumbent for the Chinese to look out for Pakistan’s best interests. That is, or should be, our job. But it is also another home truth that the junior partner usually ends up getting the short end of the stick, especially when that partner has nowhere else to go and is negotiating from a position of weakness, if not desperation. While the general public can view it as an ‘all-weather friendship’, one hopes that our strategic planners are looking at this relationship with their eyes wide open and with their rose-tinted glasses off.
A fundamental miscalculation made in the Pakistan-US relation was an assumption that Pakistan was permanently indispensible to the US. This was never the case, and at best our value to the US was situational and temporary. In the future, this value will degrade even further, making the China nexus even more important. Here, at least, geography itself dictates that Pakistan’s strategic importance will not fall below a certain minimum. Still, it is important to realise that Pakistan is only one aspect, and by no means the most important, of China’s game plan.
So how do we increase our strategic value to China, keeping in view that while China may be the cornerstone of our grand strategy, we are a sideshow in theirs? The first answer is also the most obvious: by putting our house in order. All the talk of an economic corridor will remain just that unless we are able to secure the route that corridor must take; a route that currently stretches across terrain plagued by insurgency and chaos. Achieving this will not only allow Gwadar to reach its potential but also create the kind of credible state that can, finally, negotiate from a position of relative strength.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 24th, 2013.
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Pakistan's internal imbalance (civil vs. military) has caused our priorities to get askew. Give credit where credit is due and thank General Kayani for keeping the voices of un-reason in check and letting the civilian government complete its term in office. Let us hope his successor is willing to move further away from Army entanglement in civilian politics. We need to watch how an erstwhile military junta and so-called pariah nation like Burma is playing its cards with the two superpowers and the regional power. The darling of the West in Burma was recently in China even while he US is trying to woo them. The equation is simple you play the two against each other and keep an eye out for your country's best interests. We can only hope and look forward to the day we can all agree that our leadership puts Pakistan's interests first. Self interest and turf wars have destroyed venerable institutions and disillusioned three generations of Pakistani's let us not do that to our youth. We owe them better.
@Raj - USA: Nice dream you have....but dream is a dream not a reality. How about regaining the area lost to naxalites first??
What Pakistan has got from China? Few MOU papers. Corridor for movement of Chines Goods. And got Gawader.
Without fighting India, Pakistan lost its east wing. Perceiving a threat from India, Pakistan lost its north and southern ends (Gilgit and Gwadar). Preparing to fight India, it lost KP and FATA areas to the talibans. Fearing Afghan forces, Pakistan may soon cede Azad Kashmir to India, Insha Allah.
Would you pay someone who is willing to wash your car for free everyday? Offer him some chai-biscuits, talk to him gently, pat him on his back, no kharcha.. Introduce money, raise his hopes of a reward, then there’ll be trouble!
There is a story: There were kids playing Cricket outside an old man’s house. Quite a nuisance. One day the old man decides to give them Rs.10 everyday for playing right in front of his house. The kids made a habit of it. This continued for a month. One day they turn up at the door of the old man and he refuses to pay. He yells at them. The kids smarting of the denial of money, they think the old man owes them for playing in front of his house, stop playing in front of his house altogether.
What is the moral of the story?
Who is who in this story? Rather, who is not who?
Just for the case study ... try analysing the same with India China as allies ... I hope you wont faint ....
@Kamran Choudhry: Kudos brother... You saw through the tint... Hope that people like you get into the Pakistani Foreign office...
@kamran, very touching point " Our Generals have the missiles, our leaders have mansions in Europe but we need food and shelter. " . IF you ask any Indian general he too would be asking for advanced missiles,weaponry for perceived threats while he would not walk on the streets where thousands live dirt poor and my hope that indian politician for votes sake would keep a leash on indian army. In Pakistan's case you have a true economic super power who is ready to uplift your economy and saudi willing to give oil through deferred payments.
It is said countries do not have friends but only national interests. Our "time proven friend" China is no exception. China is friendly to us because there is India or as the writer suggests, USA. In the days of cold war, US helped us because there was Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Guess what, who is still painfully paying the heavy costs of harboring those foreign "guests". Look at the mirror and see your Pakistan's friend. It will take time but with visionary leadership we can be our best friends and make Pakistan a prosperous and truly a free country. Chinese Prime Minister went to India with hands stretched for $100 billion in annual trade, job creation programs for both countries; and he came to us with an attitude of a General assuring us to protect us against speculative enemies. How about some jobs Mr. Prime Minister? Our Generals have the missiles, our leaders have mansions in Europe but we need food and shelter.