The writer is the Chairperson of the History Department at Forman Christian College, Lahore
However, while in 1970, people voted for “change” both in East and West Pakistan, this time round, people did not do so, and this is a very interesting development. Almost every Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) worker I met over the last few weeks was adamant that they will win over 100 seats, and the leaders, too, were equally sure that their mass mobilisation efforts will bear fruit. But this was not to be. Instead, the cold analysis of veteran commentators that the PTI will only win 30-odd seats has come true. Why? While the exact analysis of voter turnout, perception and trends will take weeks to come out, some preliminary comments can certainly be made. First, whereas people in Pakistan were indeed tired of the previous government on various counts, the exasperation was not so much as to bring about a revolutionary change. Pakistan might have been ill-governed, but some policies of the outgoing government did help certain classes of people, and the Benazir Income Support Programme will remain one of the hallmarks of the outgoing government. Secondly, Pakistanis were frustrated, but also cynical. Without clear policies (the PTI had good ideas, but no clear policies on how to achieve those ideas), their appeal to the electorate was always limited. I met several people at the polls who changed their mind at the last minute because even though they “liked” the ideas of the PTI, they did not know “how” the PTI was going achieve those lofty goals. Thirdly, the PTI failed to realise that there are youth beyond the urban middle classes. As one friend of mine stated: “Pakistan is not one big upper middle-class drawing room. If it (the PTI) chooses to learn from this, then I assure you that change is inevitable.”
This comment reminds me of a comment someone made about the Left, which I often quote: “That you need to afford it to be Left.” This self-explanatory comment also explains the appeal of the PTI, which was comfortable for the middle classes to accept and follow, but for people who are planning their day-to-day survival, grand hopes of change only go so far. Fourthly, it shows that despite the whole PTI campaign, and large parts of the PPP campaign, against Nawaz Sharif, the Nawaz wing of the PML still remains a very popular party. Just this fact should make us stop and think.
There are lots of reasons why the PML-N won, and I hope some academic analysis of the polls further delves into them soon, but let me highlight a couple of them. First and foremost, Nawaz Sharif is pragmatic. This is, in my opinion, his greatest strength and weakness. Strength because he can assess the situation and take decisions accordingly, and weakness because people are not always sure what he is really thinking. Take the example of the Taliban: I am sure that Nawaz is not going to let them grow and take over, but am unsure about how he would deal with them. Secondly, Nawaz is going to be good for the business community. Being a businessman himself, he clearly knows, in the words of Bill Clinton, “It’s the economy, stupid!” So, if he focuses on the economy with a good team of party specialists as well as, and this is important, independent technocrats, things might turn around. His statement on good relations with India, especially with regard to trade, are certainly good omens. And thirdly, Nawaz is centre-right. While I might not prescribe to this title, the reality in the country is that a large majority of the country is conservative and cannot be ignored. The recent British Council poll of young Pakistanis also showed that a large majority of the country is deeply conservative, and so this factor cannot be dismissed. It might be counter-intuitive, but I think that we really need to give expression to this conservative majority if Pakistan is to move forward. This conservatism tempered by pragmatism and with a focus on the economy is the panacea Pakistan needs. Congratulations and good luck Nawaz Sharif, you will need it!
Published in The Express Tribune, May 14th, 2013.
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@Awais: "I mean, if PMLN can be considered to have these qualities then PTI surely has them "
In fact the biggest criticism of PTI was that it was not pragmatic at all with plans of fixing everything in 90 days. The opportunity to rule a province will allow PTI to learn the constraints of legislative processes as well as give an opportunity to test tehir ideas n a province.
Can we give credit where its due?Let me put things in their proper perspective.True PTI did not get as many votes as they had wildly expected but isn't it creditable that this party which only became viable about a year and a half back has emerged as the largest Opposition party in the country without even tasting power.The fact that the 'liberal Pathans' have rejected all the 'ever ruled parties' goes to show not just their temperament but their deep faith in a new party.Unlike other leading political parties PTI was not untimely ripped out of a dictator's womb'. They, unlike PPP and PML(N) have emerged from amongst the masses and have a clean sheet to show.Even the greatest demagogue Bhutto used the crutches of 'Daddy Ayub' to gain power,He exploited the political situation to ride the wave of popularity and how quickly he sold out his soul to the Devil(the religious Right) to clinch to power.Similarly our Lion was in fact the hand-picked maiden of General Zia groomed by General Gilani and was taught the traits of politicsironically he used the symbol of the Lion! I feel that this partyThe PTI has only begun the journey and if its stays the course without succumbing to the dirty tricks of politics and corruption the ship is on the right course!
@Bangash sahib: You totally lost me when you wrote as early as the third paragraph: "That you need to afford it to be Left.” For someone who is a respected historian at one of Pakistan's elite universities, this is a remarkably ignorant remark, devoid of any context at all. Obviously the LEFT is NOT PTI, and can never be. Just trying to use the cover of academic analysis to spew your own ideological views is plain dishonesty. Also later in the piece you write: "While I might not prescribe to this title, the reality in the country is that a large majority of the country is conservative and cannot be ignored. The recent British Council poll of young Pakistanis also showed that a large majority of the country is deeply conservative, and so this factor cannot be dismissed. It might be counter-intuitive, but I think that we really need to give expression to this conservative majority if Pakistan is to move forward. This conservatism tempered by pragmatism and with a focus on the economy is the panacea Pakistan needs." The country mercifully now is in an unenviable position of having a rightist regime in power as well as a rightist opposition; and if you weren't too happy about that, then the future PTI-JI-Taliban government in the making in KPK ought to make you very very happy! This is definitely NOT the panacea Pakistan needs. While the rest of the world is in a grave economic crisis, you are advocating the same failed market-oriented policies for the rulers. The democratic rebellions in Latin America in the early part of this century as well as the Arab uprisings occurred precisel because of the policies you want Mr Sharif to follow. Neither is the PTI any 'alternative' to the status quo ante.
I humbly offer my own piece on the 'New Pakistan', written on election day, May 11, in the hope that it will offer a corrective to what shibboleths you have spouted in this space, more like a pulpit: http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/05/13/a-new-pakistan/
I lived under Nawaz's last term in office till he was ousted from power, I can say it was one of the most bleakest times I can remember - he was a man bent on silencing anyone who dared say anything against him - newspapers, the judiciary, even rock bands were silenced!
As for the economy, the country was so bankrupt that he launched the 'Karz Utaro' scheme, which basically involved asking already poor Pakistanis to give their gold to him to pay the IMF. Where has all this money gone??
He always seemed more worried about what the Saudis were thinking, who were twisting his arm to enforce Sharia in Pakistan.
So forgive me for being pessimistic, but based on his previous record, I'm worried about the next five years.
Excellent write-up. agreed on all counts this is the true reality and the picture !
Conservatism tempered by pragmatism? If only liberals who kept criticising PTI saw that PTI was a better bet in these terms. I mean, if PMLN can be considered to have these qualities then PTI surely has them with an added liberal element, besides the fact that experience tells us PMLN doesn't give enough of a damn to do what it says. What you see as PMLN's pragmatic ambiguity is just their cowardly and corruption-serving hypocrisy.
A balanced and factual Op Ed. I would like to remind the author that it was not Bill but his strategist James Carville during his successful bid for President in 1992 who coined the phrase it is the economy stupid. My humble opinion is IK had high positives but high negatives as well. He can be idolized but not chosen by the poor working Urdu medium rural population who are trying to raise a family in Pakistan under adverse condition. When IK never related common Pakistanis in his personal life and made different decisions that most Pakistanis cannot relate with. Going back to your example of Bill Clinton. A close friend of mine a staunch Republican told me that he voted for Bill because he could related his poor upbringing with Bill's while father Bush was totally out of touch with realities. In addition PTI has to eat at least half a crow. While the cockiness is seen as daring and confident in Urdu/Pakistani culture it is arrogance that most humble people do not like.
Very balanced article!
Can someone tell us how many women have been elected to this parliament?
More than Nawaz Sharif, it is the minorities who will need luck - they have nothing else but "luck" to survive on. An election does not mean anything significant to the dignity of "others". What kind of a "democracy" that serves only the majority? What kind of a majority that ensures its superiority over its fellow human beings not like them?
Good article. Gives a very real picture of what went wrong and what's going to be the path moving forward.
The people of Pakistan have rejected Naya Pakistan for being too expensive. They will repair and make use of Purana Pakistan !!