Tug of war: The fight for Peshawar

PESHAWAR:

The battle for Peshawar is going to be tough this time around. With elections barely two weeks away, there are no clear winners in sight. The four National Assembly (NA) seats encompass an urban-rural sprawl and will have no less than 65 candidates jostling for power. Some of these are heavyweights from political parties or independent candidates with clout.

With the exception of NA-1, Peshawar-I, the remaining three constituencies include the rural landscape. NA-3 and 4 comprise almost entirely of rural parts of the provincial capital, while NA-2 lies on the urban-rural divide.

All four seats are slated to be hotly contested, making guessing games and wager placements all the more risky and interesting.



NA-1 Peshawar-I

NA-1 Peshawar-I is the most coveted among the 272 general seats for the National Assembly, as it is the first constituency on the assembly’s roll call.

In the past, political titans like Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao and Benazir Bhutto, and aspiring titans like Imran Khan have contested this seat.

Benazir ran from Peshawar-I in the 1990 elections, however, she lost to Awami National Party (ANP) stalwart Ghulam Ahmed Bilour.

Bilour is contesting this seat on the ANP ticket yet again. He remains a formidable candidate in the history of NA-1 and has won this seat on four occasions:  thrice in the general elections and on one instance in the by-polls.

He first won this seat in the 1988 by-elections, after erstwhile Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader and present Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) chief Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao vacated it to become the provincial chief minister. The victorious loop continued in 1990, 1997 and 2008.

In 2013, Ghulam Bilour will face Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan.

Traditional clout vs youth vote

The Bilour family has a strong vote bank in the city, which is in turn likely to be challenged by the PTI’s ‘youth factor’.  In this instance, age-before-beauty might be trumped by the youth factor. This, combined with the public’s disenchantment with the previous government, can play into Khan’s favour.

Nonetheless, Bilour is poised to garner the sympathy vote after the assassination of his younger brother Bashir Ahmad Bilour last December and repeated attacks on his party. Bilour senior himself narrowly escaped a suicide attack at an ANP corner meeting on April 16.

In conflicting quarters, Ghulam Bilour’s stock has risen following his call for a bounty on the filmmaker behind ‘The innocence of Muslims’.  Going against the secular strain of the ANP, his demand is likely to resonate with the religious electorate.

If past performances could hint to the future, then NA-1 has been a traditional battleground between the ANP and PPP. The PPP has its backing in the old city, while the ANP draws strength from the suburbs.

However, the PPP angered many when it awarded the ticket to Zulfiqar Afghani, the party’s district chief, after the seat had already been given to another senior leader, Azam Afridi.

Another serious contender in the fray is Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) Provincial General Secretary Shabbir Ahmed Khan, who won this seat back in 2002 in a Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) clean sweep. This time round, Shabbir does not have the MMA as his back as all religious parties are competing separately.

The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) has awarded its ticket to Haji Shahnawaz, a businessman with no active political experience. Mohammad Afzal Panyala is the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) candidate for NA-1.

Currently, there are at least 18 candidates in the run for this stretch. The delimitation includes Old City, Cantonment, Gulbahar, Sheikhabad, Gunj, City Circular Road, Dalazak Road and Gulberg.

NA-2 Peshawar-II

This NA seat is regarded as the Arbab family’s political turf and has been the subject of a turf war between the ANP and PPP.

The family of PPP leader and former federal communication minister Arbab Alamgir’s father and erstwhile NWFP chief minister (1985-1988) Arbab Jehangir Khan has reigned in this constituency in the three periods of 1990, 1993 and 1997.

Twice – in 1997 and 1990 – Arbab Jehangir won on the ANP ticket; in 1993, he won from the PPP’s. In 1998, this seat went to Arbab Saifur Rehman from the ANP.

However, the Arbab’s could not withstand MMA’s victory in 2002 and lost this seat to Maulana Rehmatullah of the religious alliance. Arbab Alamgir made a comeback in 2008 as a PPP candidate, and is contesting the 2013 polls from NA-1 yet again.

At the moment, it seems ANP’s Arbab Najeebullah and PPP’s Arbab Alamgir Khan will give each other a good run for their money. Arbab Najeebullah is also the ANP district president.

The JI has fielded senior leader Dr Iqbal Khalil, while the JUI-F has awarded its ticket to the relatively inexperienced Maulana Saeed Jan. The PTI has awarded its ticket to Hamidul Haq.

NA-2 straddles Peshawar’s urban and rural areas. Places like Tehkal Lower and Upper fall into both categories.

The constituency also includes University Town and parts of Hayatabad. Karkhano Market, Regi village, Canal Road, Regi Lalma and Palosia, while Nasir Bagh is among the rural locales of NA-2.



NA-3 Peshawar III

Like the other Peshawar seats, NA-3 will not be an easy win for any candidate. The constituency falls on the northern side of the provincial capital and is predominantly a rural landscape.

The PPP’s Noor Alam Khan, who was the richest candidate in the previous National Assembly, is defending his seat against a flock of bigwigs.

In addition, PTI candidate Sajid Nawaz is the son of former PPP lawmaker Haji Nawaz. This, according to PPP activists, is going to impact Alam’s vote bank.

The affluent Alam is set to face another ANP Arbab – Arbab Inamullah Khan of Gul Bela. The other heavy hitter in the field is PML-N Central General Secretary Iqbal Zafar Jhagra.

Not to neglect JUI-F’s candidate former senator Haji Ghualam Ali – the ex-senator has the benefit of deep pockets, and has also served as the district nazim of Peshawar.

Before the 2002 delimitation, NA-3 was known as Peshawar-cum-Nowshera. But NA-3 was then separated from Nowshera and made a separate constituency.



In the past, this National Assembly seat was won consecutively by Arbab Mohammad Zahir: in 1988 as an independent candidate, then thrice in 1990, 1993 and 1997 from the ANP ticket.

Destabilising delimitation

In 2002, the religious alliance, MMA, destabilised the established political parties and families from this constituency. NA-3 was secured by Fayazur Rehman Alvi.

In 2008, the constituency fell to Noor Alam Khan and ANP candidate Hashim Babar was defeated with a narrow margin.

The ANP’s misfortune is losing its runner-up, Hashim Babar, to the PTI last year. Babar had developed differences with the party over a senate ticket allocation. As such things tend to go, Babar also developed differences with the PTI and is now contesting independently from the Khidmatgar Qaumi Jirga platform.

The JI has fielded its Provincial Information Secretary Advocate Israrullah for the seat.

NA-3 comprises villages on both sides of Warsak Road – Faqir Kallay, Chagarmati, Mathra and other parts the city which lie north of the Grand Trunk Road and touch the border of Mohmand Agency. Presently, at least 17 candidates are contesting the 2013 elections from this constituency.

NA-4 Peshawar IV

NA-4 is a recent addition to the constituency map of Peshawar and was created following the 2002 delimitation.

It is predominantly rural, and lies in the south of the provincial capital along Kohat and Bara roads, sharing a border with Bara tehsil of Khyber Agency, Frontier Region Kohat and Frontier Region Peshawar.

In the 2002 elections, this constituency fell to the JI’s Sabir Hussain Awan who beat ANP’s ‘sure win’ Arbab Mohammad Zahir in a ‘religious clean sweep’ of the Frontier. It was Zahir’s first defeat following the delimitation.

However, the JI boycotted the 2008 general elections and Arbab Zahir regained his former glory. Amir Muqam, then in PML-Q, was left behind in second place.

Muqam joined the PML-N early last year and was set to compete from NA-4. However, he later vacated this seat for the party’s information secretary Nasir Musazai.

Arbab anyone?

This time, the ANP has allocated the ticket to Arbab Ayub Jan, a National Assembly debutante. Jan also has the credentials of former agriculture minister in the ANP-led coalition government of K-P.

Misbahuddin will run for the PPP and Arbab Kamal Ahmed for the JUI-F, however, the latter has no active political experience. Arbab Kamal joined Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s ranks a mere few weeks ago.

Nonetheless, the facts remain the same – there are no easy predictions for how the political tables will turn in NA-4 come Election Day.

NA-4 is situated in the south of the provincial capital. Kohat Road, Badhaber, Mattani, and dozens of villages lying on both sides of Bara and Kohat Road fall within the constituency.

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Published in The Express Tribune, April 30^th, 2013.