The writer was Pakistan’s ambassador to the EU from 2001-2004 and to the US in 1999
tariq.fatemi@tribune.com.pk
What is it about Pak-Afghan relations that just when you sense an improvement, they descend into another crisis? Recent events have renewed these fears. This would be deeply disappointing, particularly as it appeared that after the tumultuous developments of 2011 that dragged Pakistan-US relations to a new low — with its inevitable fallout on Pak-Afghan relations — both Islamabad and Kabul appeared to be taking important, measured steps to bring their ties back on track.
Since the last quarter of 2012, Western diplomats have acknowledged detecting a tangible desire by Pakistan to work closely with both Washington and Kabul to promote the peace process in Afghanistan. Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s trip to Kabul in November 2012 to sign an agreement to improve border security and, thereafter, his joining former foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar in the Brussels’ meeting in December to agree on joint counter-terrorism efforts in the region, were seen as a confirmation of this trend. This was followed by an understanding between Islamabad and Kabul on establishing a hotline between their respective military and intelligence wings for “structural interaction” and finally, facilitating talks with the Taliban via a Taliban office in Doha. These initiatives appeared to reinforce the impression that Islamabad and Washington were finally operating on the same wavelength and that Pakistan had succeeded in removing misgivings about its earlier attachment to the “strategic depth” concept as regards Afghanistan. Incidentally, this impression had been reinforced by Ambassador Richard Olson during his Senate confirmation hearing in August 2012, when he stated that “the Pakistani military and the Pakistani government have moved away” from the strategic depth doctrine.
Notwithstanding these seemingly reassuring developments, new wrinkles have emerged in Pak-Afghan relations, giving rise to renewed anxiety with regard to peace prospects in Afghanistan. Even though the mercurial Afghan president is known to engage in public tirades against both friends and enemies and his close associates, too, tend to go off on a handle, the recent eruption by Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin took observers by surprise. Accusing Pakistan of “shifting” its position on the peace talks and of “changing the goal posts”, he threatened to go it alone on the peace process without Pakistan’s assistance. Islamabad’s reaction to these accusations was calculatedly moderate and restrained. But a day later, another Afghan official charged that Pakistan was setting “pre-conditions” for backing the reconciliation process. Kabul also alleged that Pakistan was unilaterally constructing a border post, charging that “these activities are against accepted international norms and unacceptable to the Afghan government”.
General Kayani did seek to calm the disturbed waters during separate meetings last week with Nato chief General Joseph Dunford and with Centcom chief General Lloyd Austin by reiterating that Pakistan remained committed to working for the success of an “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” peace process. There can, however, be no denying that recent events have raised fresh questions as to the post-2014 troop withdrawal scenarios in Afghanistan, in the absence of genuine cooperation between the neighbours.
While no specific reason has yet emerged to explain this unexpected setback, analysts believe that given the tortured history of Pak-Afghan relations, such twists should not be a surprise. Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his close associates continue to harbour lingering doubts about Pakistan’s intentions, while also remaining sceptical about its protestations of having abandoned its strategic objectives in Afghanistan. No less important are Karzai’s growing fears about his own future and his desperate need not to become irrelevant when his term ends in 2014. Notwithstanding the above, it is essential that Pakistan not weaken in its resolve to promote a genuine peace process, not as a favour to Afghanistan, but in its own supreme interest.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 10th, 2013.
COMMENTS (12)
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@Anti-BruteForce:
M.J.Akbar said this a long time ago. A wise man, how true have his words become.
What do you think is happening today! The biggest menace in Afghanistan 10 years ago is Pakistan's biggest mess today - No, not the US, but the Taliban.
Pakistan's fate was sealed the day it worshipped Afghans like Ghaznavi, its fate is now sealed with Afghanistan. That is why the world call them Af-Pak.
Earlier Afghanistan used to accuse Pakistan of giving shelter to Militants, now its the opposite.
Wake up, kid. Afghanistan has already started influencing Pakistan. Pakistan wanted to push Militants in Afghanistan. Now, the opposite is happening. This to and fro will continue for a while now.. Have fun.
@Zalmai: I can forgive you if you don't know Pakistan's history - for example, Persian is part of many of Pakistan's languages including Urdu or that Persian was used in Pakistan for 1000s of years - it was after all part of the Persian Empire from the time of Cyrus. I can't forgive you for ignoring Pakistan's singuilar role in defeating the Soviets in Afghanistan and freeing that nation while millions of Afghanis wer happy to become refugees in foreign lands. Either you are Indian or your Indian masters have taught you well when you deny Afghanistan's long standing reality of being a base for Indian activities against Pakistan. And trust me, some North Indians and Pakistanis may have some similarity in looks but the majority of Indians, especially from the Centre and South of India look very different.
@Maria
" I think the whole world knows that Afghanistan will descend into chaos when the West pulls out. The simple reason is that all the groups in Afghanistan hate each other. No matter how much corruption there is in Pakistan, its much worse in Afghanistan. They only use outsiders such as Pakistanis, Iranians etc as a scapegoat to detract from their own sordid reality. In Afghanistan, there is a long history of racial hatred among themselves meaning that Tajiks hate Uzbeks hate Afghan Pashtuns and all groups there hate Hazaras. Afghanistan will always be a willing puppet state of India and use its country as a base to send criminals to Pakistan to harm innocents. Pakistan needs to deport the millions of Afghani refugees back to Kabul and work with NATO / ISAF with a plan to control or fence the border before the West leaves. Although the mountainous border will be difficult to entirely fence, there can be selective barriers, electronic surveillance and the use of mines. Pakistan has paid too heavy a price for freeing Afghanistan from Soviet rule and should now just focus on sealing off that nation from Pakistan."
Nothing is going to happen to Afghanistan after NATO troops withdraw and Pakistan's objectives in Afghanistan will be thwarted by the new breed of mature politicians that are in no mood to see a reversal of the accomplishments of the last eleven years.
Your assertion that Afghanistan was freed from Soviet rule by Pakistan is disingenuous and delusional. The Pakistani military cannot wrest Tirah Valley from rag tag militants let alone stand up to the mighty Soviets of the 80s.
Afghans don't hate each other it was Pakistani policy to create ethnic divisions within Afghanistan in order to manipulate them but that plan backfired because Afghans are nobody's puppets and even your beloved Taliban rejected Pakistani interference in Afghanistan.
Speaking of puppets, Pakistan was created to be a puppet state of the West to safeguard their oil interests and that is why petro-dollars poured into Pakistan, which paved the way for Arab influence in Pakistan and the naming of institutions after Arab despots.
Said Ramadan was the principal architect in influencing people like Abu-Ala Maududi in the 1950s to mobilize people through madrassas and IJT to radicalize the population into becoming an intolerant obscurantist society that is the Pakistan of today.
Afghanistan does not have mosques and stadiums named after Shah Faisal and Muammar Gaddafi. Our national language and national anthem are not foreign languages respectively. Pakistan imported Urdu from India and its national anthem is in Persian when virtually nobody speaks Farsi in Pakistan. Pakistani people look like Indians yet they claim ancestry from Arabia and other places.
@BruteForce: Don't worry, Afghanistan will never influence Pakistan. For one to influence others, first you must have a circle of influence internally. Afghanistan is incapable of having a sovereign government. Only Kabul is within the control of the government, the rest of the country is patrolled by Western forces while Taliban rule the rural areas. As for Pakistan, yes, it has major issues of its own but it can only be influenced through kick-backs from the West to corrupt leaders. Hopefully in this election, bribe-lovers will be eliminated and outside influence will be contained.
"-----There can, however, be no denying that recent events have raised fresh questions as to the post-2014 troop withdrawal scenarios in Afghanistan, in the absence of genuine cooperation between the neighbours.---"
"----it is essential that Pakistan not weaken in its resolve to promote a genuine peace process, not as a favour to Afghanistan, but in its own supreme interest.---"
EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE HINGED ON * genuine* .
Please define and expand on this term : GENUINE
Paraphrasing M.J.Akbar: Pakistan wanted to influence Afghanistan. But, in the future Afghanistan might end up influencing Pakistan!
An excellent piece by a person who obviously knows these issues very well. The writer's suggestion is most appropriate. Pakistan has no option but to continue pushing for a genuine and durable peace process by ensuring that all the major stake holders are brought into a future political set-up.
Come 2014 Afghanistan is well positioned to repay all its debts to Pakistan with penal Interest, the fruits of the strategic depth policy working well in reverse gear. The dreams of many could get shattered.
@pakistani342: Great thoughts. Once you accomplish the above three steps, you should 1. put all the militants behind the bars 2. get rid of the corrupt politicians 3. remove all the discrimination against minorities.
@khattak: I think the whole world knows that Afghanistan will descend into chaos when the West pulls out. The simple reason is that all the groups in Afghanistan hate each other. No matter how much corruption there is in Pakistan, its much worse in Afghanistan. They only use outsiders such as Pakistanis, Iranians etc as a scapegoat to detract from their own sordid reality. In Afghanistan, there is a long history of racial hatred among themselves meaning that Tajiks hate Uzbeks hate Afghan Pashtuns and all groups there hate Hazaras. Afghanistan will always be a willing puppet state of India and use its country as a base to send criminals to Pakistan to harm innocents. Pakistan needs to deport the millions of Afghani refugees back to Kabul and work with NATO / ISAF with a plan to control or fence the border before the West leaves. Although the mountainous border will be difficult to entirely fence, there can be selective barriers, electronic surveillance and the use of mines. Pakistan has paid too heavy a price for freeing Afghanistan from Soviet rule and should now just focus on sealing off that nation from Pakistan.
Pakistan and Afghanistan disentanglement is desired: 1. Pakistan should expel all 3 million Afghans refugees from Pakistan - there is no need to host a people who are ungrateful and hostile to Pakistanis in Afghanistan 2. The resources Afghans consume in Pakistan: schools, hospitals, universities should go to Pakistanis - no point in giving these to a people, Afghans, who hate us Pakistanis 3. Pakistan should not provide transit trade to Afghans - it will reduce drugs and guns in Pakistan.
The strategic shift in Afghan foreign is calculated. Mulla/Jihadi monkey business is not going to stop regardless of peace deals. The best chance Afghans have is to play the same business & reverse engineer it. The war will continue for decades.