Prosperity for posterity

With election fervour in the air, political alphabets chant ‘change’ as each vies for the prize: Pakistan. Strategically, the country is a geographic epicentre for trade, wielding a potential demographic dividend; 57 per cent of the populace is under the age of 24. Minerals and gas galore, Pakistan also has the most extensive irrigation network in the world. Yet, the country languishes on the road to prosperity, having inherited the legacies of governments past: a state of anarchy, undermined by a gross lack of accountability in public sector management.

Although a consequence of the crux, we begin nonetheless by addressing security. Plagued by instability and fraught with fear, Pakistan has witnessed over 120 blasts in 2013. January alone wreaked havoc with 63 explosions: a testament to the measure of insecurity perpetuated on a daily basis. Unsurprisingly, social indicators have fallen. Fiscal priorities for public sector service have been rerouted towards dismantling militant paradigms, thereby begging the question: why does our youth still flock towards the jaws of militancy? There is no easy answer.

The ‘war on terror’, one that was not Pakistan’s to participate in, has spilled over from the northwest of the country, afflicting metropolitan cities and compromising sovereignty. We are, in essence, at civil war. However, socio-economic factors have also fuelled the status quo: in 2010, unemployment amongst young men between the ages of 15 to 24 stood at 10.5 per cent in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP), whilst unemployment in Sindh was at 4.1 per cent for the same demographic. Inadequate livelihoods and the absence of employment opportunities in Fata and KP have created a favourable environment for opportunistic militant groups, with economic incentives for potential recruits greatly outweighing other available prospects. Moreover, inadequacies in legal and governance frameworks based on tribal structures have fuelled the ascendancy of militancy in these areas. Once the white flag is waved, as it should be, how is the road to be paved?

If the militant paradigm is legitimised via conscription, those engaged in antisocial activities against the state will be forced to participate in national defence. Conscription will create a melting pot amongst different ethnic factions across class divisions, coalescing in a spirit of camaraderie and nationhood. We may draw from policies followed in post-Soviet countries, where conscripts fulfilled dual roles via the armed forces and paramilitary organisations, dedicated to police-like, domestic-only service or non-combat rescue duties. Furthermore, a reservist pool would reduce exigency for a standing army, allowing military expenditure to be directed elsewhere.

Effective governance requires the establishment of robust interfaces that directly involve communities in the planning, prioritisation and application of programmes. However, in order to pave the way for this, adequate investment and accountability in service delivery are essential. The crux: restructuring taxation policies for the purpose of collection and revenue mobilisation. In 2010, expenditure on roads, energy, health and education accounted for only 14 per cent of total spending in Pakistan, compared with the global average of twice that level. The government cries ‘underfunded’, yet our representatives notoriously grant SRO tax exemptions: Rs719 billion over the last four years. Is this the example that is to be set from the top-down?

Thus far, the current state of affairs has resulted in limited economic and social returns. A mind shift is required to dispense of preferences favouring certain sectors and economic activities over others. Tax legislation must be revived as a whole, rather than piecemeal, for strength of enactment. Doing so will provide the foundation for sector-wide provincial reform programmes, combining supply side interventions and demand side measures, with a focus on addressing equity in regional and gender imbalances. In addition, community-based rural programmes, leveraging skills and resources of the poor, may effectively link markets to government services, as in the case of China. For a burgeoning populace, exports of manufactured, labour-intensive goods are also one of Pakistan’s main windows to income and employment generation. Once investment in human capital and infrastructure is propagated, opportunities will actualise.

We can no longer afford to prolong a governmental culture of apathy: it is imperative that mistakes of past are not repeated in years to come. Each of us must champion a paradigm of ownership and responsibility, urging our representatives to do the same, for the welfare of our posterity.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 6^th, 2013.